2018 AAC Ratings and Rankings

[flyingMoose]

This week's (through 4 November matches) RPIs of interest-

11 - UCF
23 - Cincinnati
45 - Shockers
47 - Tulsa

The Shock's non-conference opponent's winning percentage is now 73.6%.

[flyingMoose]

Bracketology Guy - Nov 5

64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference
Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati, Tulsa

Last 4 in: Tulsa, Notre Dame, Miami-FL, Dayton
First 4 out: Wichita State, Western Kentucky, Colorado, Indiana



Bubble Team Profiles

AAC


Wichita State (12-12, 7-6 AAC)

RPI: 45
SOS rank: 8
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-7
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 4-1
Significant Wins: James Madison
Significant Losses: SMU, Houston
Last 10 games: 3-1
Remaining Matches: vs. Houston, vs. SMU, at Temple, at UConn, vs. Tulsa, vs. North Texas

Tulsa (17-8, 9-4 AAC)

RPI: 49
SOS rank: 62
Record against 1-25 RPI: 0-5
Record against 26-50 RPI: 1-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-0
Significant Wins: Wichita State
Significant Losses: SMU
Last 10 games: 3-2
Remaining Matches: vs. SMU, vs. Houston, at UConn, at Temple, at Wichita State

Tulane (20-7, 8-4 AAC)
RPI: 70
SOS rank: 160
Record against 1-25 RPI: 1-1
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-2
Record against 51-100 RPI: 1-3
Significant Wins: Cincinnati
Significant Losses: Wofford
Last 10 games: 5-0
Remaining Matches: vs. Temple, vs. UConn, @cincinnati, @ecu, vs. Memphis


I assume the at-large choice of Tulsa over the Shockers is a higher assumed finish in the AAC.

Rationale for some of the at-larges is expected later.

[flyingMoose]

However, the RPI Futures has the following:

10 (11) - UCF
21 (21) - Cincinnati
51 (49) - Wichita State
65 (69) - Tulsa

Conference finish? RPI? Moot because neither the Shockers nor Tulsa will be an at-large?


1000 Simulations with the chance of being Top 45 in parentheses
10 - UCF
21 - Cincinnati
51 - Wichita State (23%)
65 - Tulsa (3%)

No difference. With only three weekends left, that is not too surprising.

[flyingMoose]

In answer to a question on VT,

RPI is in Wichita State’s favor. They really need to beat Tulsa, and hope that Tulane wins out.



Well, Tulane is at Cincinnati yet, so the chances of them winning out are not great, although Tulane currently has the third best Pablo value in the AAC.

[flyingMoose]

This week's (through 11 November matches) RPIs of interest, verifying what we pretty much already know-

10 - UCF
24 - Cincinnati

54 - Tulsa
61 - Shockers
67 - Tulane


The RPI Futures has the following:

10 (10) - UCF
The Knights will surely host the first round.

24 (21) - Cincinnati
The Bearcats will receive an at-large bid.

The following are looking forward to spring practices.
60 (69) - Tulane
71 (51) - Shockers
74 (65) - Tulsa
This assumes a Shocker win over Tulsa (they still have a slighter better Pablo value and play at home) which I think no one on this site expects. As noted earlier, Pablo does not quickly reflect injuries and very recent level of play.

[1972Shocker]

My guess is either Tulane or Tulsa will represent the AAC in the NIVC. Tulane currently leads Tulsa by 1 game with 3 matches to play. Tulane has Cincy, ECU and Memphis left. Tulsa has UConn, Temple and WSU.

If they tie Tulsa owns a win over Tulane in the only match they will play this season.

[flyingMoose]

To prolong the agony, I guess ...


Bracketology Guy - Nov 12

64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference
Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati

Last 4 in:
First 4 out:
Next 4 out: Tulane


Bubble Team Profiles

AAC
Tulane (23-7, 11-4 AAC)
RPI: 67
SOS rank: 184
Record against 1-25 RPI: 1-1
Record against 26-50 RPI: 0-0
Record against 51-100 RPI: 1-4
Significant Wins: Cincinnati
Significant Losses: Wofford
Last 10 games: 7-0
Remaining Matches: @cincinnati, @ecu, vs. Memphis

[flyingMoose]

The Shockers RPI is now 90 ... one slot behind Bradley.

The average attendance is 2278, 17th in the table.


6-year history of Bracketology:
Missed on only FOUR at-large bids

Missed on eight seeded teams


Bracketology Guy - Nov 19

64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference
Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati

UCF is projected to be a 12 Seed.

[flyingMoose]

Bracketology Guy missed one seeded team and two at-large teams. He noted that cases could be made for about six at-large teams for the last two spots, so he did not feel real confident about his final couple of picks. However, he strongly disagrees with K-State being left out since they swept Hawaii, one of the at-larges, twice early in the season.

K-State and Kansas were the among the first four left out.