Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2018 AAC Ratings and Rankings

Collapse
X
Collapse
First Prev Next Last
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2018 AAC Ratings and Rankings

    It is time to start looking at the RPI and Projected RPI.

    The NCAA publishes the official RPI of course, but Figstats publishes an RPI based on their understanding of the NCAA version, and it has proven to be very accurate in the past. They publish their numbers daily.

    Over on Volleytalk, a poster publishes a projected end-of-season RPI using the Pablo ratings to determine the results of future matches. It usually does not appear until Tuesday or Wednesday of the week, using the Pablo numbers that usually are available by Tuesday.

    To begin with, a (lightly edited) paragraph from 1972Shocker that appears in another thread.

    "Lambo ... in his pre-Memphis match comments to the Match Club. He said he feels very good about this non-con schedule's worth in contributing to a strong RPI and we will continue to schedule in this manner to the best of his ability. However, the Shocks still need to take care of business in conference play or it won't make much difference other than to make it seem like the team is better than they really are. He said if the Shocks finish 4th but have the 2nd best RPI in the AAC it would be very difficult for the committee to passover those other 2 teams to take the Shockers. Lambo also said it might be time to lower expectations for this year implying that at this point he is not confident that this team has the goods to be an NCAA team this year."

    Figstats has the following RPI for the AAC teams for the matches through Sunday:

    19 - UCF
    37 - Shockers
    54 - Cincinnati
    82 - Tulsa
    ...

    I think the official NCAA RPI should appear later today and the Projected RPI later in the week.

  • #2
    Using the following Pablo values,

    6095 UCF
    5935 Cincinnati
    5720 Shockers
    ...

    the Projected RPIs are

    17 UCF
    27 Cincinnati
    43 Shockers
    ...

    The projected cutline is 50 because the projected Conference champions of a number of mid-minor conferences are already within the cutline.


    The difference in Pablo values say that UCF is a 56% favorite over Cincinnati on a neutral court and a 61% favorite over the Shockers. Cincinnati is a 59% favorite over the Shockers.
    Last edited by flyingMoose; September 24th, 2018, 04:59 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Another take on Projected RPIs.

      With 1000 simulations of the remainder of the season, the chance of finishing in the Top 45

      99% UCF
      88% Cincinnati
      50% Shockers

      Comment


      • #4
        Figstats has the following RPI for select AAC teams for the matches through Sunday:

        14 (19) - UCF
        42 (37) - Shockers
        51 (54) - Cincinnati

        The RPI values from Figstats for last week are in parentheses.

        Comment


        • #5
          Current Pablo values are

          6230 (6095) UCF
          6115 (5935) Cincinnati
          5660 (5720) Shockers

          with last week's values in parentheses.


          The Projected RPIs are

          14 (17) UCF
          25 (27) Cincinnati
          43 (43) Shockers


          And now the 1000 simulations of the remainder of the season, giving the chance of finishing in the Top 45

          13 (13) 100% UCF
          26 (24) 98% Cincinnati
          44 (41) 44% Shockers


          Again, just some sense of who is where.
          Last edited by flyingMoose; October 1st, 2018, 07:11 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by flyingMoose View Post
            Figstats has the following RPI for select AAC teams for the matches through Sunday:

            14 (19) - UCF
            42 (37) - Shockers
            51 (54) - Cincinnati

            The RPI values from Figstats for last week are in parentheses.
            The official NCAA RPI is out.

            14 - UCF
            42 - Shockers
            46 - Cincinnati

            Today's Figstats has Cincinnati at 47. Only the SWAC played matches on Monday and their highest RPI is 305 and unlikely to affect any RPIs that we are interested in, so I suspect I grabbed the earlier Figstats value for the Bearcats before all of the Sunday matches had been reported.
            Last edited by flyingMoose; October 2nd, 2018, 10:40 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Me, playing with the numbers again.

              Last year, the Shockers ended the season with a Pablo value of 6500. The current value for this year's team is 5660 (which, as of this week, includes none of last season), a difference of 840. Thus, last year's team would be about an 80% favorite against this year's team.

              What does Pablo say about the matches against USF and UCF? USF is about a 53% favorite because of home court. UCF is about a 78% favorite.

              Comment


              • #8
                UCF is playing the conference season for a seed at this point. Will be highly motivated. Cincinnati has a lot of upside for an at-large, but still must perform. Wichita is as bubblicious as it gets, this early. Making the tourney is a fair goal. A win at UCF (and not giving it back against USF) would be huge.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by JayPak View Post
                  Wichita is as bubblicious as it gets, this early. Making the tourney is a fair goal. A win at UCF (and not giving it back against USF) would be huge.
                  I think the best possibility to reasonably expect is a loss to UCF and a split with Cincinnati while winning the rest. But I would take a win over UCF too.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    This week's numbers are starting to roll in.

                    Current Pablo values are

                    6165 (6230) UCF
                    6150 (6115) Cincinnati
                    5775 (5660) Shockers

                    with last week's values in parentheses.


                    The Projected RPIs are

                    14 (14) UCF
                    21 (25) Cincinnati
                    37 (43) Shockers


                    And now the 1000 simulations of the remainder of the season, giving the chance of finishing in the Top 45

                    14 100% UCF
                    21 99+% Cincinnati
                    38 63% Shockers


                    Figstats has the current RPIs at

                    14 (14) - UCF
                    37 (42) - Shockers
                    42 (47) - Cincinnati

                    The official RPI should appear tomorrow.
                    Last edited by flyingMoose; October 9th, 2018, 07:40 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      The official RPI are out and are the same as those calculated by Figstats -

                      14 - UCF
                      37 - Shockers
                      42 - Cincinnati

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Including the matches played Thursday, Figstats has these RPI before the weekend matches -

                        14 - UCF
                        33 - Shockers
                        41 - Cincinnati

                        It is interesting how much the Shockers have moved since Sunday having played no matches, and it will be interesting how their RPI moves after adding the match against the Bearcats to the list of opponents played.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          After the ECU match, the RPI from Figstats are 15, T29 and 38 for UCF, the Shockers and Cincy (assuming all of the Friday matches are in their database).

                          The Sunday match against Cincinnati is probably the last one that will be directly helpful RPI-wise for the Shocks. The non-con opps will need to continue to do well.
                          Last edited by flyingMoose; October 13th, 2018, 02:18 PM. Reason: Update by Figstats

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by flyingMoose View Post
                            The non-con opps will need to continue to do well.
                            Looking good so far. 16-1 so far this week (Mon-Sat) with only West Virginia losing to #24 Baylor 15-17 in the 5th set.

                            Stanford sweeping #21 Washington State and #18 Washington on Friday and Saturday. BYU continues to roll through an undefeated season.

                            JMU, VCU and North Texas have matches today.
                            Last edited by 1972Shocker; October 14th, 2018, 10:19 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              This week's numbers are ...


                              Current Pablo values are

                              6215 (6150) Cincinnati
                              6065 (6165) UCF
                              5785 (5775) Shockers

                              with last week's values in parentheses.


                              The Projected RPI are

                              13 (15) UCF
                              19 (21) Cincinnati
                              38 (37) Shockers


                              The 1000 simulations of the remainder of the season, giving the chance of finishing in the Top 45

                              13 100% UCF
                              20 100% Cincinnati
                              38 69% Shockers


                              The official RPI through the Sunday matches are

                              14 - UCF
                              30 - Shockers
                              36 - Cincinnati
                              Last edited by flyingMoose; October 15th, 2018, 06:05 PM.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X