2018 AAC Ratings and Rankings

[flyingMoose]

The official RPI through the Sunday, 21 October matches are

9 - UCF
27 - Cincinnati
42 - Shockers


The Projected RPI are

12 (13) - UCF
23 (19) - Cincinnati
51 (38) - Shockers


Current Pablo values are

6215 (6065) - UCF
6135 (6215) - Cincinnati
5695 (5550) - Tulane
5625 (5785) - Shockers

[flyingMoose]

To echo Lambo’s radio comment, Simulations gives the Shocks only a 23% chance of a Top 45 finish.

[flyingMoose]

The VT poster who is aces on the Tournament bracket has started to post his observations. This from earlier in the week.


64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference
Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati

First 4 out: Illinois State, Arizona State, Wichita State, Duke
Next 4 out: Tulsa, Alabama, Portland, Miami-FL


AAC - UCF took charge by winning in five at Cincinnati. They're undefeated in conference and are Top 10 in RPI. UCF is going to end up with a top 16 RPI almost assuredly. The Cinc win on the road is huge. It will be very interesting to see what the committee does with them. Wichita State is a real disappointment. They are below .500 but have one of the toughest schedules in the nation. They also haven't beat a top 50 RPI team. They might be one of the best RPI teams to be left out. They recently lost to Houston, who was winless in the AAC. Tulsa is a team to keep an eye on. Wichita State's SOS is so good that they might stay Top 50 and be a "quality" win for others even if they don't make the tournament. Tulsa already beat the Shockers once, and have a chance to do it again. It's likely the AAC gets two or three bids.

[Kung Wu]

We are gonna get Missouri Stated?

[flyingMoose]

We are gonna get Missouri Stated?

Okay, here are his thoughts on the MVC.


64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference
Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa


Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa losing to Marquette might have crushed their seeding chances. I don't think they'll host a subregional this year. But, they should definitely get an at-large if they don't win their tournament. Now, Illinois State and Valparaiso have shots at NCAA bids. Neither of them have anything impressive on their resume, but beating each other could give both of them 1 or 2 top 50 Wins depending on how the results, RPI, and MVC tournaments play out. Neither have a top 50 RPI win right now. I'm leaning with the MVC being just one bid -- but I think Illinois St. will be one of the last in or out. Not sure what side they'll fall on just yet.


See previous post with Illinois State being one of the First 4 Out.

[1972Shocker]

We are gonna get Missouri Stated?

[1972Shocker]

We are gonna get Missouri Stated?

I don't think our RPI will be high enough for that to happen. To even have a chance we would need to run the table. That seems very unlikely and even if we do may not be enough.

[Kung Wu]

Yeah that's how I was reading Moose's post. We aren't that high of an RPI, but high enough it could be a little frustrating for the ladies to think they deserve a spot.

[flyingMoose]

Oops, totally my bad! I missed the 'd' on Stated. I was trying to say that the Bears have no chance of getting in the Tournament, while the Shocks still have a very faint chance. Not losing another match is a requirement which includes beating Cincinnati at their place.

[ShockerFever]

We are gonna get Missouri Stated?

Didn’t MSU have some Top 50 wins?

The ladies haven’t beat one single team of significance, while they have a few bad losses.

Their RPI is inflated because of the extremely tough schedule. They shouldn’t make it simply by having a tough schedule. You have to beat somebody too.

[Kung Wu]

Didn’t MSU have some Top 50 wins?

The ladies haven’t beat one single team of significance, while they have a few bad losses.

Their RPI is inflated because of the extremely tough schedule. They shouldn’t make it simply by having a tough schedule. You have to beat somebody too.

I would hope so, their RPI was like 22 or something. It's not a good comparison.

[flyingMoose]

This week's (through 28 October matches) RPIs of interest-

11 -UCF
25 - Cincinnati
44 - Shockers
50 - Tulsa

The Shock's non-conference opponent's winning percentage is now 73.4%.


Pablo values are here, so Projected RPI and Simulations will not be too far behind.

Current Pablo values are

6175 (6215) - UCF
6040 (6135) - Cincinnati
5740 (5695) - Tulane
5665 (5625) - Shockers

As an early peek, these values give the Shockers a 28% chance to win on Friday against the Bearcats.


The Projected RPI are

11 (12) - UCF
21 (23) - Cincinnati
49 (51) - Shockers

and Simulations give the Shocks a 35% chance of being in the Top 45.

[flyingMoose]

FLASH!!

This week's postings of the Bracketology Guy are in-progress (no conference-specific explanations yet), but he has the following:

64 Projected NCAA-Tournament Teams, listed by Conference
Projected Champion listed first || separated by at large teams

AAC - UCF || At-Large: Cincinnati, Wichita State

Last 4 in: Texas Tech, Wichita State, Illinois State, Miami-FL
First 4 out: Notre Dame, Tulsa, Kansas State, Pepperdine


There are probably some results somewhere last week that caused the bump into the Tournament. But he also has four weeks to change his mind several times.

[flyingMoose]

Still no conference-specific thoughts.

[flyingMoose]

Still no conference-specific thoughts.

"And sorry for not having the bubble profiles - they’ll have to wait. I had a recent traumatic experience - and am thankful to be here to write this post!"

That explains that. Maybe next week.

[1972Shocker]

Car wreck? In any case, I'm very thankful you're here as well.

I actually had a very near miss a few weeks ago and could easily have been removed from the equation myself. Fortunately, it was a miss but it was close enough to shake me up.

[flyingMoose]

My bad! Not me, the Bracketology Guy on VT. Sorry for the confusion.

[flyingMoose]

After the matches on Saturday, November 3, the Shockers current RPI from Figstats is 47 with the projected RPI being 51. As discussed elsewhere, the chances of making the Tournament appear to be nil.

[flyingMoose]

Following the Sunday, November 4, matches, UCF and Cincinnati are going to the Tournament - nobody else from the AAC is. I think.

However, the RPI cutoff line appears to be 49/50, so maybe, just maybe. That cutoff is higher than normal because a number of the presumed AQs from mid-majors have a good enough RPI that they would qualify anyway and are not taking away at-large bids.

RPI and RPI Futures will be available Monday and Tuesday.

Oh, UCF is most likely a Top 16 seed.