At-Large

[ShockBand]

If the Valley could manage to typically have the upper half teams in the top 75 RPI and the lower half in the 75-150 zone at the end of the season, it could make a dramatic difference. Reason? The average RPI win and RPI loss would improve more just from the in-conference play, just as the "big boys" enjoy. Its pretty much the 2005-06 "formula" when we were accused of gaming the system.

The crazy thing is doesn't necessarily take a bunch of BCS OOC games to achieve this, though a few help. We need to look to the Utah States of the nation who are in the same boat and help each other out with kick butt home-and-home OOC series.

Then the BCS schools would get whiney again and change the system probably.

[MadDog]

Just did a little analysis on the ESPN bubble teams vs the RPI. Some interesting tidbits...

of the top 54 RPI teams, only two are not in the discussion at all for at-large consideration: Kent St (43) and WSU (45).

There are 16 teams with worse RPI's than ours that are still in the discussion:
Locks - Virginia Tech (50), Marquette (59)
Last Four In - Memphis (46), Arizona St (53), Illinois (75) - are you kidding me?
First Four Out - Washington (49), Seton Hall (54), Ole Miss (56)
Next Four Out - Dayton (51), Ole Miss St (69), Minnesota (78
Bubble - UNLV (47), Florida (52), Notre Dame (58, South Florida (64), St.Louis (83)

I guess I can think this sucks, or I'm going with the thought that we're in the discussion and Lunardi doesn't know it :yes:

[Ashockalypse]

I forgot again, how does our RPI get to 45 if our schedule is so weak etc. and how does 25-8 with 45 RPI not go while Illinois goes with 70 RPI? I agree with Fever's analysis that we are to blame but then again, why do we have to be so faultless while others are forgiven with such losses.

[Ricardo del Rio]

This whole at-large scenario is getting more painful by the minute. The already weak bubble is getting weaker by the second. It's a shame we laid our bed with that Evansville game. A few asinine people thought it was "just another game, each game carries its own weight, etc." Well, this is proving to be simply not true. Take away that loss, and either the Drake or Bradley debacles and we are 28-7 and likely on the good side of the bubble.

It's like the basketball gods were begging us to get in this year, even with a weak resume, but we choked at our easy, easy chances. :roll:

Good points.

I consider the CU loss as a debacle. Just look at the stats. Ugly. And still we only lost by a couple of points.

[ShockBand]

I subscribe to Basketball State (bbstate.com), and they have a replica of the NCAA selection sheet. In all honesty, I have no idea why Illinois is being considered based on stats alone. True their average RPI loss at 58 is better than ours of 89, but their overall record and RPI should exclude.

It really boils down this year for the Shocks, at least what I see statistically, almost to the Evansville loss alone as the factor pushing us out of bubble, but realistic consideration. If we don't lose to them, our worst two losses are Creighton (RPI 115) and Drake (RPI 182). If we win those two, our worst loss is to an RPI 100 Bradley team.

When the margins are thin for getting in, bad losses are disastrous, IMHO.

BTW, I highly recommend a subscription to Basketball State if you're a college hoops junkie.

[mproviz]

A Non-Con SOS of 285 with a record of 10-2 is a very somber stat on our resume.

[Speed]

I looked at some projections & RPI conference rankings just to see if a case could be made for WSU. To my biased eyes it wasn't hard especially when I look at conference rankings. Conferences on similar to MVC are all multiple bid leagues. Those leagues have teams projected w/slightly worse RPI's than WSU. (Memphis AZ St.). Even conferences w/several bids have consideration to teams w/significantly worse RPI's than WSU.
So while the bubble is convoluted, the MVC looks like a 2 bid league.

[Overtime]

If we are not in the NCAA...as expected...would we be a 1 seed in the NIT?...That seems a decent possibility with an rpi in the 40s.

[RoyalShock]

If we are not in the NCAA...as expected...would we be a 1 seed in the NIT?...That seems a decent possibility with an rpi in the 40s.

Study this and let us know what you think.

NIT selection and seeding principles and procedures

My gut feeling is that with how convoluted the NCAA bubble is, it will carry over to NIT seeding and we could be anywhere from a 1 to a 4 seed.

[Rosewood]

We got some at large love from Doug G on Mike and Mike this morning as he pointed out how much harder it is for a team like WSU to have a record and RPI vs a team that has one signature road win, at Cornell.

[DPruett2333]

A HUGE run from Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament, would be nice. :)

[WuDrWu]

A HUGE run from Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament, would be nice. :)

....As long as it's not all the way.

[DPruett2333]

....As long as it's not all the way.

Well, yeah... Just get to the Finals!

[fansince80s]

I just cant get past the fact that the #2 team in the MVC (top 10 RPI)standings and runner-up in the tourney championship cant get a mention!

[DPruett2333]

I just cant get past the fact that the #2 team in the MVC (top 10 RPI)standings and runner-up in the tourney championship cant get a mention!

Yeah, I know... I keep looking at all of these bubble teams, and they're profile isn't any different than ours... I think Doug Elgin needs to get on the phone and make some calls!