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I expect two teams to get invites. Three if there is a surprise winner in the conference tournament.
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I think UNI is on the bubble, at best. The DePaul loss is starting to look bad. They lost to Mississippi State (who has lost to Rider and Richmond) by 31 last night.
The BC win isn't looking very good as they lost to Harvard and a mediocre St. Joseph's.
It's too early to tell if the Iowa St. win will be good or not.
UNI needs to beat Siena tomorrow night in the worst way.
Honestly, I think WSU (assuming we win out in the OOC) and MSU have the best chance at an at-large resume right now.Comment
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Lot of risk with that position. RPI forcecast has the MVC breaking down by final RPI:Originally posted by tropicalshox
50 MSU
62 UNI
71 WSU
85 SIU
With WSU winning the MVC regular season at 12-6. Those RPI's are hardly at-large type RPI. Of course if a team(s) can do a little better than predicted then that changes.
MSU needs to be 22-7 to have a top 40 rpi
UNI needs to have a 22-6 to have a top 40 rpi
WSU needs to have 24-5 record to have a top 40 rpi
SIU needs to have 24-5 record to have a top 40 rpi
CU needs a 21-8 record for top 40 rpi
Margin of error is slim (cu has no margin of error) for all the teams.Comment
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Am I correct in thinking that this doesn't take into account Bracket Busters? There is a chance that the top couple of teams in the Valley could be matched up with opponents that would be decent RPI boosts if they can win (particularly those who are on the road).Originally posted by SB Shock"Cotton scared me - I left him alone." - B4MSU (Bear Nation poster) in reference to heckling playersComment
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How accurate is all of this, especially at this point in time?Originally posted by SB ShockDeuces Valley.
... No really, deuces.
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"Enjoy the ride."
- a smart manComment
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IMO, the reason the Valley isn't getting more love nationally is due to choke jobs by teams in preseason tournaments.Originally posted by DoubleJayAlum
Take a look at this:
CU 0-3 in the Old Spice Classic
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yes, it does not account for bracket buster (since nobody knows what bracket buster look like right now). It does not look like there are that many potential quality matchups for the MVC with the way the split of home and away has occurred. WSU looks like it is in a better position to get a quality matchup then most MVC teams.Originally posted by The Mad Hatter
Home:
Vermont
Montana State
Gardner Webb
Radford
Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Northridge
Cal Irvine
Cal Riverside
Pacific
Delaware
George Mason
Georgia State
Hofstra
Northeastern
Virginia Commonwealth
Butler
Cleveland State
Detroit
Green Bay
Milwaukee
Canisius
Iona
Loyola
Manhattan
Saint Peter's
Ball State
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Kent State
Miami
Ohio
Creighton
Evansville
Bradley
Illinois State
Missouri State
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Austin Peay
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville State
Murray State
Appalacian State
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Utah State
Away:
Boston University
New Hampshire
Presbyterian
Winthrop
Cal-Poly
Long Beach State
UC-Davis
UC-Santa Barbara
Drexel
James Madison
UNC-Wilmington
Old Dominion
Townson
William and Mary
Loyola
Illinois-Chicago
Valparaiso
Wright State
Youngstown State
Fairfield
Marist
Niagra
Rider
Siena
Akron
Buffalo
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Western Michigan
Drake
Indiana State
Wichita State
Morgan State
South Carolina State
Morehead State
SIU-Edwardsville
Southeast Missouri
Tennessee State
Tennessee Tech
Tennessee Martin
College of Charleston
Elon
Western Carolina
Oral RobertsComment
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It probably more accurate than most opinions on here :DOriginally posted by ShockerFever
but of course it is just a prediction (and simulation) and the error is going to be less in February than in mid-december. Who really think MSU is going to finish 2nd in the MVC?
But it is probably more accurate than the tradition daily RPI because it does look to the future. But at the same time it is based on statistics so it is able to show you it's error bound so you can judge what it's predicted accuracy is.
Here is figure showing how RPI forecast error was versus normal day-to-day RPI. MAD is Mean Absolute Deviation. As you can see it has a lower error and the two converge as the season winds down.
I think the brilliance of RPIforcecast is it shows you what your team (likely) has to do if you want to achieve a specific RPI.Comment
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Give us Butler...or Ohio (ADES vs ADJS)Comment
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My choices (at this time):
VCU
Utah St
Murray St
Pacific
ButlerComment
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If WSU wins the Valley with only a 12-6 record and even if they win out the rest of the non-conference games I would not expect an at-large bid. It would take more domination of the Valley than that. More a long the lines of that 24-5 record or better. The same goes for MSU, UNI and CU. They would need to do very well in Valley play. Is it going to happen for any of them? Probably not but we will see. IMO SIU isn't good enough to even think about them.Originally posted by SB ShockIn the fast laneComment
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We could finish the season 23-7 and win two in the Tourney...25-8, that is a bubble team or better. 25 wins in the MVC will be tough, but certainly not impossible to ignore. Bottom line is that we need to win our next two games. Lose the next two and then the dance goes through St. Louis.
I like this team, but it is too early to tell what we've really got here.Livin the dreamComment
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