Over / under for losses this year

[grudkin]

nm

[Shocker85]

5

I think the burden of all the new opponents scouts and new assistant coaches will take a bit of a toll on the conference W/L record. These Shockers aren't quite talented enough to just roll through this league on ability. The other AAC teams have one new scout each, Marshall and staff have 11.

[pinstripers]

I think the burden of all the new opponents scouts and new assistant coaches will take a bit of a toll on the conference W/L record. These Shockers aren't quite talented enough to just roll through this league on ability. The other AAC teams have one new scout each, Marshall and staff have 11.

makes sense 6

[lawmaker]

8-
WSU is not in valley anymore

[SB Shock]

I ran a simulation for the 2018 schedule.

Assumptions:

1. 2017 Sagarin ratings are applicable
2. Maui Tournament (California, Marquette, Michigan, 4th being 100% win)
3. Scenario 1: WSU was showed no improvement - was still 26th ranked team in Sagarin
4. Scenario 2: WSU was Top 10 Sagarin team.

Results:

Scenario 1 - 9 losses (20% chance of 7 losses or less) - 969 simulations
Scenario 2 - 6-8 losses (50/50 chance of 7 losses or less) - 1891 simulations

[shockmonster]

I ran a simulation for the 2018 schedule.

Assumptions:

1. 2017 Sagarin ratings are applicable
2. Maui Tournament (California, Marquette, Michigan, 4th being 100% win)
3. Scenario 1: WSU was showed no improvement - was still 26th ranked team in Sagarin
4. Scenario 2: WSU was Top 10 Sagarin team.

Results:

Scenario 1 - 9 losses (20% chance of 7 losses or less) - 969 simulations
Scenario 2 - 6-8 losses (50/50 chance of 7 losses or less) - 1891 simulations

Someone is bring some sense to this exercise. We lost 5 last year. We are in a stronger conference with a more difficult non- conference schedule.

[Shoxcity]

Would more than 10 be a disappointment?

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Lets not forget that not only will we be playing against better quality players, these teams will be better coached. That means better prepared. The big problem with bringing everyone back is there is a lot of footage, and the other 11 teams are currently preparing for us knowing exactly who we have and what we do. We are preparing for 11 new teams. And we don't have the gameplanning magician with us anymore.

This is going to be a fun year. Enjoy the ride. Don't let expectations ruin it.

[ShockAzs]

Yea, but there's this thing. We're gonna be REALLY good! Possibly the best we've ever been in the modern era, or close to it.

And are we talking regular season losses? Fine, I'm drinking the cool aid.

McDuffie, Shamet and Frankamp will kick serious arse, and our front line will be fearsome. Shaq will finally get big boy treatment, no more of the phantom fouls he suffered in the valley for being big.

Nurger will be the best he's ever been, and that's pretty damn good. They'll both be pushed to be better by the God Bear.

We'll be ROLLING by the time conference season comes around, and we all know 3G won't let cockiness be our downfall.

Capable backups? They're ready to show their breakout improvement as well. You guys know who we're talking here.

Newcomer wild cards added on top? Guys with crazy names? It's gonna be a magical season, buckle up and enjoy the ride!

3-4 losses only.

[ShockerPhi]

Put me down for 7 losses. I still don't know which will be better, our team or our new conference and schedule. We had 5 losses last year, so I feel adding 2 more seems reasonable.

1 non-con, 4 conference, 1 in the conference tournament championship (I still have PTSD from St. Louis), 1 in the NCAA tournament (not ready to predict where though).

I absolutely cannot wait for this season. Koch Arena will be at it's loudest this year. They may need to have engineers come in and check for it's structural integrity when the season is over.

[shockmonster]

Would more than 10 be a disappointment?

Maybe but not out of the realm of possibility. I'd go with 5-7 losses during the regular season so I would go with 7-9..

[im4wsu]

I'll go with 4. I'll exchange the two losses in Atlantis for two additional losses in conference. Then I'll subtract one loss simply because THIS team is overall BETTER and MORE EXPERIENCED than last year's extremely good team.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

2 noncon
4 con
1 con tourney
1 ncaa tourney
=
8

3 losses before NCAA tourney. Get a 2 seed

I'm VERY confident that if WSU only has 3 losses on selection sunday, they will be a 1 seed.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Heck, why not go all out here...

As of selection sunday:

Losses - Seed
1 - 1
2 - 1
3 - 1
4 - 2
5 - 2
6 - 3
7 - 4
8 - 5
9 - 6
10 - 7
11 - 8
12 - 9
13 - 10
14 - 11
15 - NIT
16 - NIT

I love the 2017-2018 schedule!!!

[vbird53]

If Tim "Garrett Stutz' balls" Jankovich can coach an NBA team to 20-1 in the AAC, let alone a 6 deep SMU squad, it will be a cold day in Hell before Gregg Marshall loses 5 games in conference with the team he has next year.

I totally agree, however, other AAC squads will surely be better this year than last (Houston, Tulsa, Temple).