History of Bracket Matrix Misses

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Here are the biggest misses by the bracket matrix over the last 5 years. Aside from a bonkers seed for Oregon in 2013, you can basically count on the matrix doing no worse than +/- 2 seed lines, and for the vast majority of teams, it is much closer than that. Remember, these are the WORST SINGLE MISS for each year.

Year - Miss - Projected Seed - Actual Seed - Team
2016 - 1.9 - 8.9 - 7 - Oregon State
2015 - 2.2 - 8.8 - 11 -Dayton
2014 - 1.7 - 5.3 - 7 - UConn
2013 - 4.3 - 7.7 - 12 -Oregon
2012 - 1.7 - 6.3 - 8 - Creighton

Also, for reference:
2016 - 1.1 - 9.9 - 11 -WSU
2015 - 1.5 - 5.5 - 7 - WSU
2014 -0.02-1.02 - 1 - WSU
2013 - 1.0 -10.0 - 9 -WSU
2012 - 0.2 - 5.2 - 5 - WSU

WSU is currently at 8.54 in this year's matrix. I'd say the odds are high that WSU gets an 8 or 9. 7 or 10 are possible. Anything else would be completely shocking... pun intended.

Oh, and I feel obliged to add... Jerry, you're an idiot.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Up from 8.54 yesterday to 8.46 today now that the last few stragglers updated their brackets to include the win Sunday.

[Steeleshocker]

Up from 8.54 yesterday to 8.46 today now that the last few stragglers updated their brackets to include the win Sunday.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this continue to tick to a improved seed line over the coming days.

[martymoose]

So in only one instance did we get a better seed than Bracket Matrix. If history continues it looks like we can expect to subtract 1 from whatever their final number is.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

So in only one instance did we get a better seed than Bracket Matrix. If history continues it looks like we can expect to subtract 1 from whatever their final number is.

You make it sound worse than it is.

1 better
2 equal
2 worse

[Cdizzle]

You make it sound worse than it is.

1 better
2 equal
2 worse

Sort of. One of the 'equals' was a gimme on which people didn't really have a choice.

[Kung Wu]

Where is Illinois State at?

[ShockerPrez]

Where is Illinois State at?

Normal.

[shock]

Bahahaha. It would be even better if they decline the NIT bid.

[MadDog]

Looks like Georgia Tech stepped out of their way tonight. Maybe they still have a chance.

[XManCometh]

I'd say the odds are high that WSU gets an 8 or 9. 7 or 10 are possible. Anything else would be completely shocking... pun intended.

Oh, and I feel obliged to add... Jerry, you're an idiot.

I'd say the seed will start out as an 8/9 and will be adjusted up to a 7, or down to a 10 depending on who else is in that same seeding vicinity due to having to avoid rematches and other things like that. I'm rooting for a 7 or a 10 personally.

[Rosewood]

WSU is currently at 8.54 in this year's matrix. I'd say the odds are high that WSU gets an 8 or 9. 7 or 10 are possible. Anything else would be completely shocking... pun intended.

Oh, and I feel obliged to add... Jerry, you're an idiot.

Are these based off of the final bracket matrix? If so I seem to remember there being a lot of volatility in the last week before selection Sunday. So I agree with your analysis but I think we move some more over the next couple of days

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

WSU is at 8.41 TODAY. They will move only as much as teams around them jump them or fall behind them due to conference tourneys. In all likelihood, the final matrix on Sunday will have WSU as an 8.xx.

[engrshock]

If that is the case then it would appear that the RPI has a strong correlation to the seeding and other metrics not so much.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

If that is the case then it would appear that the RPI has a strong correlation to the seeding and other metrics not so much.

Not always.

Gonzaga is RPI #10, KenPom #1, BracketMatrix of 1.14 (#4)
Cincinnati is RPI #13, KenPom #20, BracketMatrix of 5.05 (#18)
Illinois State is RPI #31, KenPom #49, Bracketmatrix of "first team out" (#48)
UNC-Wilmington is RPI #25, KenPom #59, Bracketmatrix of 11.85 (#49)