A Fresh Look Of the 2016/2017 Valley Race

[wusphlash]

0-2 starts by ISUB, UNI and Loyola is perplexing and provides an opportunity for early separation from most of the pretenders.

[Stickboy46]

A couple of ISUr fans think 16-2 is possible in Normal. 16-2 is pretty freaking special territory.

While 16-2 is unlikely, I don't see anyone besides WSU being the favorite over them. Maybe MSU.

[WuDrWu]

Fletcher is hurt for SIU, maybe long term. How Drake lost by 14, even bad Drake, is hard to comprehend.

Drake, SIU, Bradley are awful. UNI, Loyola can't figure it out. ISUb has had a rough path to start. Evansville is better and MSU and ISUr look to be the only challengers to WSU.

[ShockerFever]

A couple of ISUr fans think 16-2 is possible in Normal. 16-2 is pretty freaking special territory.

Just shows what happens to a fanbase that never wins on the road how they think when they beat an overrated Loyola team to start the season.

There is NO way Illinois State is winning 16 Valley games this year. Just the delusional highs and lows of that fanbase.

[WuDrWu]

Just shows what happens to a fanbase that never wins on the road how they think when they beat an overrated Loyola team to start the season.

There is NO way Illinois State is winning 16 Valley games this year. Just the delusional highs and lows of that fanbase.

Number of teams since 2002 to lose 2 or fewer conference games in a season?

7

SIU twice, UNI once, WSU 4 times. All of these teams were outstanding and ranked teams.

[WuShock16]

Number of teams since 2002 to lose 2 or fewer conference games in a season?

7

SIU twice, UNI once, WSU 4 times. All of these teams were outstanding and ranked teams.

...and all of WSU's times occurred in the last 5 seasons. The lone exception was a season that saw WSU go to the Final Four. I'll gladly give up a couple extra MVC games if it guarantees another Final Four for the Black and Patone 109U/116C.

[IdahoShocker]

Here is a link to the first MVC Coaches Conference Call of the season. HCGM is on last, around the 55 minute mark I think. They asked his thoughts on the upcoming Drake game and he said "I honestly don't know a thing about Drake I haven't seen any film on them yet." Every other coach said the normal "our next opponent is really, really good." That is one of HCGM's attributes that I just love, his honesty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDvQYQ9Ot8A

[COS Shocker]

As much as I despise ISUR, I hope they have a great run through the rest of the Valley. We need some top 50 victories. My view of the valley after the first 2 games

WSU 17-1 (one loss at ISUR - I hate it)
ISUR 15-3 (losses at MSU, WSU and one other road loss)
MSU 12-6 (Johnson is the real deal after watching both of their games this week)
UNI 9-9 (Jacobson will get them turned around, hopefully after Sunday. I hope I'm wrong here because I don't want to see them on Sat in St. Louis)
EU 9-9 (Clearly the most improved team to my expectations)
ISUB 8-10
LU 7-11
BU 6-12 (Don't be fooled by yesterday. Shockers know how to blow out an overmatched opponents and take advantage of them-they will find a way to be respectable in many conference games. They are definitely improved and on the up swing)
SIU 5-13
Drake 2-16

[forevershockerfan]

It seems like each Season, this Valley of Death has some surprises and things can get dicey. One surprise is UNI. Silly ole me picked them to finish 2nd this very Season? What? They are 0-5 and receive a visit today from the unpredictable BullDawgs!!! Good thing I'm not a gambler, because that is turning out to be a blunder of a prediction. Grrrr!!! Another game of interest today is Mo. State at Loyola.

No Mags predicted the Birds to win the Valley that I found. Just because they defeated our beloved Shocks yesterday does not mean they will win the Ship but will be fighting with the Shocks tooth and nail for that honor. One key will be which team will win the games they should win and not be upset by teams on road games. I don't suppose Valley teams could beat them birds for us until we can bag them here at 21st and Hillside? On the other hand, Drake and Loyola did get beat at our barn but actually both scored more points than our Shocks in the second half. Thus, we play them both yet on the road and need to take care of our business.

SIU is now 4-2 and Mo State shows flashes of improvement led by Juco Transfers 6'-9" Alize Johnson who averages 13.3-ppg and Ronnie Rousseau at 11.6 ppg. The Bears will have their hands full when they visit the improved Ramblers today. These are all teams that could be spoilers to the Redbirds or the Shocks in this Ship hunt.

The Shocks and the Birds may find themselves in a St. Lew or Bust situation no matter who wins the Valley depending on loss totals. The Shocks barely squeezed into the Dance last Season, but proved they belonged there by impressive wins versus Vanderbilt and Arizona. What awaits us from here? Stay tuned. Lot's of games still to play from here. The Shocks as always, have little wiggle room for losses so we must take care of our business with all the wins we can muster up.

[WheatShock]

Anyone know what the tiebreaker would be between the Shocks and ISUr if we beat them at home and wind up with the same record?

[ShockerFever]

Anyone know what the tiebreaker would be between the Shocks and ISUr if we beat them at home and wind up with the same record?

Noncon SOS, but Illinois State will be losing more games.

[SHOCKvalue]

Anyone know what the tiebreaker would be between the Shocks and ISUr if we beat them at home and wind up with the same record?

The Valley's website says RPI is the tiebreaker, as of 2016:

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/#.WHz75WlOKEc

So an archaic, behind the times metric will be used as a tiebreaker to decide the regular season champion of a archaic, behind the times conference. It's fitting.

To say nothing for the fact that if you go look at the Massey Ratings Composite - which only exists to function as a sort of clearinghouse and aggregator for the dozens of CBB rankings, ratings, and metrics - the RPI is pretty much the only metric that would show ISUr as the better team. Figures... it's so MVC.

Can we kidnap all of the AAC presidents and bribe them to fast-track this potential move?

[WSUwatcher]

In the past it's been various things, including performance against the next team down, performance against the rest of the league, with points given for wins against team 3-10 (more for road wins than at home), etc.

But if WSU and IlSt both finish 17-1 with a split against each other (not likely -- teams tend to lose a silly game or two somewhere along the way, as the UNIs did a couple of years ago when the two split but WSU finished 17-1 to their 16-2 -- although still theoretically possible), who knows? I'm sure a coin flip is in the list of tiebreakers somewhere, and in any case the real key is not who's seeded first but what matchups the seeding produces. It wouldn't be at all surprising, and indeed has happened to WSU's disadvantage in the past, that the 4-5 winner could be a much tougher potential opponent than the 2-3 winner turns out to be.

Considering the way the Shocks looked in not-so-Normal, though, they have a good bit of work and toughening up to do if they want to reach 17-1, regardless of how the Jailbirds perform. And once you get to St. Louis, you still have to avoid any miscues.