2016-17 Bracketology

[shoxlax]

Like I said I think we win the tournament and it's a forgone conclusion.

All that being said, Doc is pretty much vindicating Palm's opinion of the committees opinion. If that someone ends up being right I swear to all of you that I will not watch one single second of this tournament.

[RussDaBus]

Currently a 7 seed in Lunardi's bracket updated today.

[WuDrWu]

A 5 loss Division I team absolutely does NOT deserve an invite. Says no one who knows anything....

I knew I'd be misunderstood, and that's ok, but hear me out. I'm not trying to be a contrarian or an ass or difficult. That being said, the argument "a 5 loss Division 1 team absolutely does NOT deserve an invite", in sarcasm, just ignores reality.

Other teams are trying to get in to the tourney. We're not in a fish bowl where X result gets inclusion. We don't "get it" just because we're good. Are we better and more deserving than others?

There are 36 at large spots. To have this make any sense, we have to lose. I believe we're in before ISU so to me, it doesn't matter to whom we lose, but a "bad" loss makes it even worse, so let's say we lose in the semis. Not a good loss for sure.

Who do I think is more deserving?

Let's start with a list I don't think anyone would quibble with. UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin, Villanova, Butler, Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, UNC, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, Florida State.

That's 19 teams. I would hope there would be little debate there.

And remember, you have to assume we lose, AND I was saying I didn't want to wait for a week and see the number (36, reduced to 35 by the MVC) reduced further by an additional 4 tournament upsets. If there are 35 at large teams, I believe we're safe.

If the number goes to 31, I think it will be unpleasant to say the least.

So we're at 31, and we have 19. That leaves 12 spots.

Here are the teams left to compare to (my opinion only) and I'll go by conference just to kind of keep it organized:

AAC - Cincy, SMU, Houston - I believe we compare favorable to ALL 3, but the committee won't. If this is an upset tourney, and my most likely possibility, one of Cincy or SMU is certainly getting in before WSU. Maybe 2, not 3 though.

A10 - Dayton, VCU, URI - Much the same as the AAC. Again, I believe we compare favorably to all 3 when honestly looking at resumes. But if there's an upset, one of them is getting in before WSU. Maybe 2, but again, not 3.

ACC - this is where it gets contentious. I think it's really hard to argue Virginia Tech and Virginia don't get in before we do. That leaves Miami and Syracuse (I think we're ahead of) and Wake and GT (certainly ahead of). I also think it's unlikely their auto bid comes from anyone but a lock.

Big12 - Iowa State and OSU are in better shape than we are. KSU, TCU, TT are not. I think the B12 is straight forward. I also don't think there's a big chance for an upset.

BigEast - Another problem. Creighton is an issue with their injury situation. Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette, Xavier is dying. No chance one of these doesn't get the auto. But the BE is going to get someone. CU for sure to me. I think we're in before the others, but you know that's not going to happen.

B10 - Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State. No chance Iowa or Illinois is in before we are. I actually think we compare favorably to all those teams, but losing to MSU doesn't help. I think Maryland and Minnesota are in before we are. Again, the winner probably comes from my list, but you sure don't want Illinois or Iowa to get hot.

Pac 12 - Cal and USC I think we're in better shape than Cal. After that loss to ASU I think we're in better shape than USC, but will the committee? Also, I don't think there is an upset here.

SEC South Carolina and Arkansas. Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt. I think we're behind USC and ahead of Arkansas. I don't think there's much to debate beyond that....but the committee will. And anything is possible in this tourney.

Big West - Only worried about BYU winning the tourney.

Others - Vermont deserves a look, but they don't get in before us. Wilmington does too, but won't. I think it's really close with Middle Tennessee and us but I think we win that battle. Monmouth too, but not ahead of us. Nevada not before us. Belmont might if they didn't lose to Tennessee Tech.

So I had us down to 12 spots.....for this discussion, the AAC and A10, to me at least, are the 2 most likely upset tourneys. Then the SEC and let's say B10 middle team wins.

I add back in a PAC12 spot, ACC, B12 and BE to get to 16 spots as the auto bid comes from a team already ahead of us.

1 ACC team and 1 A10 team for sure, let's just say Cincy and Dayton. Virginia Tech and Virginia. Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Creighton, Maryland, Minnesota. South Carolina. That's 10.

So 6 spots for the following teams. VCU, SMU, Houston, URI, Miami, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette, Xavier, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, Cal, USC, Arkansas and Wichita State. How do you like our chances with the committee selecting us before 6 of that group? I don't want to find out.

[T.VuOP]

So 6 spots for the following teams. VCU, SMU, Houston, URI, Miami, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette, Xavier, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, Cal, USC, Arkansas and Wichita State. How do you like our chances with the committee selecting us before 6 of that group? I don't want to find out.

You seemed to know the Committee's mind. Other Shockernetters, please heed.

[ShockCrazy]

I knew I'd be misunderstood, and that's ok, but hear me out. I'm not trying to be a contrarian or an ass or difficult. That being said, the argument "a 5 loss Division 1 team absolutely does NOT deserve an invite", in sarcasm, just ignores reality.

Other teams are trying to get in to the tourney. We're not in a fish bowl where X result gets inclusion. We don't "get it" just because we're good. Are we better and more deserving than others?

There are 36 at large spots. To have this make any sense, we have to lose. I believe we're in before ISU so to me, it doesn't matter to whom we lose, but a "bad" loss makes it even worse, so let's say we lose in the semis. Not a good loss for sure.

Who do I think is more deserving?

Let's start with a list I don't think anyone would quibble with. UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin, Villanova, Butler, Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, UNC, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, Florida State.

That's 19 teams. I would hope there would be little debate there.

And remember, you have to assume we lose, AND I was saying I didn't want to wait for a week and see the number (36, reduced to 35 by the MVC) reduced further by an additional 4 tournament upsets. If there are 35 at large teams, I believe we're safe.

If the number goes to 31, I think it will be unpleasant to say the least.

So we're at 31, and we have 19. That leaves 12 spots.

Here are the teams left to compare to (my opinion only) and I'll go by conference just to kind of keep it organized:

AAC - Cincy, SMU, Houston - I believe we compare favorable to ALL 3, but the committee won't. If this is an upset tourney, and my most likely possibility, one of Cincy or SMU is certainly getting in before WSU. Maybe 2, not 3 though.

A10 - Dayton, VCU, URI - Much the same as the AAC. Again, I believe we compare favorably to all 3 when honestly looking at resumes. But if there's an upset, one of them is getting in before WSU. Maybe 2, but again, not 3.

ACC - this is where it gets contentious. I think it's really hard to argue Virginia Tech and Virginia don't get in before we do. That leaves Miami and Syracuse (I think we're ahead of) and Wake and GT (certainly ahead of). I also think it's unlikely their auto bid comes from anyone but a lock.

Big12 - Iowa State and OSU are in better shape than we are. KSU, TCU, TT are not. I think the B12 is straight forward. I also don't think there's a big chance for an upset.

BigEast - Another problem. Creighton is an issue with their injury situation. Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette, Xavier is dying. No chance one of these doesn't get the auto. But the BE is going to get someone. CU for sure to me. I think we're in before the others, but you know that's not going to happen.

B10 - Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State. No chance Iowa or Illinois is in before we are. I actually think we compare favorably to all those teams, but losing to MSU doesn't help. I think Maryland and Minnesota are in before we are. Again, the winner probably comes from my list, but you sure don't want Illinois or Iowa to get hot.

Pac 12 - Cal and USC I think we're in better shape than Cal. After that loss to ASU I think we're in better shape than USC, but will the committee? Also, I don't think there is an upset here.

SEC South Carolina and Arkansas. Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt. I think we're behind USC and ahead of Arkansas. I don't think there's much to debate beyond that....but the committee will. And anything is possible in this tourney.

Big West - Only worried about BYU winning the tourney.

Others - Vermont deserves a look, but they don't get in before us. Wilmington does too, but won't. I think it's really close with Middle Tennessee and us but I think we win that battle. Monmouth too, but not ahead of us. Nevada not before us. Belmont might if they didn't lose to Tennessee Tech.

So I had us down to 12 spots.....for this discussion, the AAC and A10, to me at least, are the 2 most likely upset tourneys. Then the SEC and let's say B10 middle team wins.

I add back in a PAC12 spot, ACC, B12 and BE to get to 16 spots as the auto bid comes from a team already ahead of us.

1 ACC team and 1 A10 team for sure, let's just say Cincy and Dayton. Virginia Tech and Virginia. Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Creighton, Maryland, Minnesota. South Carolina. That's 10.

So 6 spots for the following teams. VCU, SMU, Houston, URI, Miami, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette, Xavier, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, Cal, USC, Arkansas and Wichita State. How do you like our chances with the committee selecting us before 6 of that group? I don't want to find out.

I think your understanding of bid thieves is a bit off. There are 36 at large bids IF every single champion is a bid thief. The actually level of at large who will get in is somewhere around 44-46 best team because the 6-8 champions will be at large quality therefore pushing the line down.

For further understanding. There are 68 teams in the tournament 32 auto bids and 36 at large bids. So you take the top 36 automatically. But if one of those champions happens to be a top 36 team, then number 37 fills the spot.

This is why some of us are so confident if we make it to Sunday. We are 35 now with absolutely no help.

[shoxlax]

I get what your saying, zero faith based on committee track record and the awful, lazy metrics they use. Palm, while an ass, is simply stating his opinion of the committees projected opinion. Does he have great insight into the committee inner workings....given his shat job overall last year that is debateable but he seemed to get close with us last year. That worries me IF we don't win the tournament or get at least to the finals.

On another note I dreamed we played Ark in a 7-10 matchup and drilled them. Austin scored 12 off the bench.

[AndShock]

We have to win 3 games this weekend.

I believe there are 35 teams at a minimum that deserve in ahead of WSU. That's me. NOT the selection committee. You know they see things less Shocker-tainted than I do.

If the AAC (certainly possible) SEC (less likely) MVC (certain if we're having this discussion) A10 (possible) and just one of unlikelies BigPriest, ACC, B1G, B12, PAC12 has an upset, we're going to be in a world of trouble.

Welcome to the club

[ShockingButTrue]

We were ranked last year the week of the MVC tournament, lost to a team who had previously beaten two top 5 ranked Power 5 foes, not to mention us as well already once, so that would be 3 victories over ranked teams, and still were a last 4 in team.

[ShockerExpress]

I think your understanding of bid thieves is a bit off. There are 36 at large bids IF every single champion is a bid thief. The actually level of at large who will get in is somewhere around 44-46 best team because the 6-8 champions will be at large quality therefore pushing the line down.

For further understanding. There are 68 teams in the tournament 32 auto bids and 36 at large bids. So you take the top 36 automatically. But if one of those champions happens to be a top 36 team, then number 37 fills the spot.

This is why some of us are so confident if we make it to Sunday. We are 35 now with absolutely no help.

This is how I understood it as well.

[ShockerPrez]

We were ranked last year the week of the MVC tournament, lost to a team who had previously beaten two top 5 ranked Power 5 foes, not to mention us as well already once, so that would be 3 victories over ranked teams, and still were a last 4 in team.

I will say that we lost a lot of games last year. Tulsa, Alabama, Seton Hall, USC, Iowa. Which, I guess makes me feel a little better about our prospects this year.

[CBB_Fan]

ESPN's bracketology has the following path for us (assuming higher seeds win):

vs 11 Middle Tennessee
vs 2 Oregon
vs 3 Butler
vs 1 Gonzaga

Put that bracket in zip-lock and save it till March, please and thank you. It isn't super easy, since all the teams are "legit" but having Oregon as our 2 seed is ideal. We'd be favored till the Elite 8.

[WSUwatcher]

Thanks for the update, Doc. One doesn't have to agree with your conclusions or concerns (e.g., Lunardi, who, as others have noted, has WSU in as a #7 seed with an at-large spot) to see that you've given it considerable thought -- certainly far more than I could in the time I have to devote. Maybe you should finish up a full bracket and join the bracketology fraternity.

I'm counting on none of it mattering after Sunday, but you never know about St. Louis.

[WUpigsooie]

ESPN's bracketology has the following path for us (assuming higher seeds win):

vs 11 Middle Tennessee
vs 2 Oregon
vs 3 Butler
vs 1 Gonzaga

Put that bracket in zip-lock and save it till March, please and thank you. It isn't super easy, since all the teams are "legit" but having Oregon as our 2 seed is ideal. We'd be favored till the Elite 8.

I'll disagree there, I want no part of a mid major in the first round. Give me a middling/bubble P5 school every time.

[Heinro]

I'll disagree there, I want no part of a mid major in the first round. Give me a middling/bubble P5 school every time.

I generally like that bracket as well, but I agree, I'd much rather have Seton Hall, Arkansas, or Syracuse.

[Ricardo del Rio]

I will say that we lost a lot of games last year. Tulsa, Alabama, Seton Hall, USC, Iowa. Which, I guess makes me feel a little better about our prospects this year.

Seton Hall. Don't remind me. The refs called 31 fouls on the Shocks. The Shocks lost by 4.

I would not go back to New Jersey.