2016-17 Bracketology

[WuShock16]

I say it every year, but I'd rather be an 11 or 12 seed, then a 7-10. Avoid the top 2 seeds as long as possible. As an 11 seed you'd 6 seed in the first round, then more than likely a 3 in the second round, whereas with a 8 seed you get a 9 seed in the first round, then a 1. I'd personally prefer the 11 seed route.

I get what you are saying, but the last three times that WSU has been seeded 7-10, the Shockers have advanced to the second weekend. Keep us away from Dayton, and I'll take my chances.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

That's fine and I agree. But then don't go saying in matter-of-fact fashion that a team has no chance of getting in and then 5 days later have them magically appear 3 spots away from the tournament.

Fever just made an excellent, rational point. There was no unnecessary name calling. I believe the board benefited from what he had to say.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Win the next 5, or the last 3, and WSU goes dancing.

[WheatShock]

Win the next 5, or the last 3, and WSU goes dancing.

I'm sure you're right but how about we just win the next 7 and leave no doubt.

[Dave Stalwart]

I'm sure you're right but how about we just win the next 7 and leave no doubt.

I actually think this is what will likely happen. The year has been good, but it's about to get really good. I wonder what kind of seed 30-4 will get us. I really don't know because of the trouble with SOS. I guess we may get to find out pretty soon.

It would be so typical for Marshall to get 30 wins in a rebuilding year. Classic Gregg

[SHOCKvalue]

Win the next 5, or the last 3, and WSU goes dancing.

My magic eight ball is telling me that if we simply win the last one, as opposed to the last three in your context, that we might have a chance of squeaking in.

Any thoughts?

[COS Shocker]

If I'm 3G or the players I'm salivating at Lunardi's latest bracket (not that they are checking it out as they are focused on SIU-which is why I'm confident they will take care of business). The challenge of playing KU, Duke and then either AZ or Louisville, that's why they want to play college bb and have that opportunity. Yes as fans we may want a more favorable bracket, but I don't think 3G or the players will care, they want to take on anyone and settle it on the court.

On a side note if we are 30-4, I think we still land up with a 7 seed most likely, maybe we can move to a 6 depending upon other teams, but I wouldn't be very confident.

[Stickboy46]

I actually think this is what will likely happen. The year has been good, but it's about to get really good. I wonder what kind of seed 30-4 will get us. I really don't know because of the trouble with SOS. I guess we may get to find out pretty soon.

It would be so typical for Marshall to get 30 wins in a rebuilding year. Classic Gregg

We wont be in the first four which is all I care. I give our team a chance with fair odds vs anyone this year.

[ShockCrazy]

So because there is so much gnashing of teeth on our chances if we don't win St. Louis I thought I would present some data on the types of teams that actually get snubbed. So... The highest win total to miss the tournament is 27. Done by Drexel and Oral Roberts in 12, Louisiana Tech in 14, and Colorado State and Murray State in 15(might have missed one or two all of them are since 2012). Not a single one of these teams was top 50 in both KenPom and RPI, most in neither.

So then lets move to RPI snubs, typically comes up is MSU in 2006, Air Force in 2007, and 2008 Dayton. MSU was 21 in RPI and 35 in KenPom, pretty big snub, Dayton was 32 in RPI and near 60 in KenPom, but really the biggest snub is Air Force, 30 in RPI and 23 in KenPom.

Then from the other side the only possibly obvious top 30 KenPom snubs were the aforementioned Falcons in 2007. Dayton in 2010 and WSU in 2011 both finished top 30 but climbed significantly due to NIT championship runs after selection.

So in summation, if WSU hits 28-5 or 29-5 on selection Sunday, they will have a KenPom in the top 20 and an RPI somewhere between 30-38. We would quite literally be the biggest snub in tournament history by almost every metric. Now, yes, this doesn't go into resume wins and such(mostly because that's very subjective and gets messy), but at a certain level, eventually, the surface level numbers just speak for themselves. It seems highly unlikely we would be left out if we get to Sunday in St. Louis.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I agree that WSU will get a bid if their next loss isn't until Sunday in St. Louis. At that point, yes, it would be a huge snub to leave them out. 28 D1 wins getting sent to the NIT would indeed be an all time record. However...

So then lets move to RPI snubs, typically comes up is MSU in 2006... MSU was 21 in RPI and 35 in KenPom

MSU was actually #22 in KenPom on selection sunday in 2006. They fell to 35 after a bunch of teams jumped them by winning games in the NCAA Tourney.

I stand firm that 2006 MSU was far and away the worst snub ever, and it would remain so even if WSU got left out this year.

http://shockernet.net/forum/showthread.php?22182-2016-17-National-Poll-Rankings&p=700676&viewfull=1#post700676

[ShockCrazy]

I agree that WSU will get a bid if their next loss isn't until Sunday in St. Louis. At that point, yes, it would be a huge snub to leave them out. 28 D1 wins getting sent to the NIT would indeed be an all time record. However...



MSU was actually #22 in KenPom on selection sunday in 2006. They fell to 35 after a bunch of teams jumped them by winning games in the NCAA Tourney.

I stand firm that 2006 MSU was far and away the worst snub ever, and it would remain so even if WSU got left out this year.

http://shockernet.net/forum/showthre...l=1#post700676

Ah yeah checked the after tournament for that one. Pretty rough. Not sure they would be a bigger snub than us. I mean if we get to Sunday we are probably RPI 30, KenPom around 15-18, and a gaudy record. MSU was 20-8 on selection Sunday.

[pie n eye]

Lunardi has 8WSU vs 9Dayton facing off against KU. In Tulsa. Sounds like a familiar scenario.

[Stickboy46]

Palm must have really hated himself after his last update. We are no longer in the first four out.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

3 of the 4 in the first four in category lost last week at least once too.

Michigan States 11 point win over Iowa was apparently enough to counteract their 29 point loss to Michigan and move up a seed line.

[SHOCKvalue]

Palm must have really hated himself after his last update. We are no longer in the first four out.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

3 of the 4 in the first four in category lost last week at least once too.

Michigan States 11 point win over Iowa was apparently enough to counteract their 29 point loss to Michigan and move up a seed line.

Lol! He dropped us from the his arithmetic altogether!

The guy truely is irrational towards WSU. It's personal, somehow.

He's a human advertisement for the analytical shortcomings of Purdue STEM grads. Hearing him speak publicly, I have no idea how he graduated in the first place. He sounds like lead paint chips have been in his food pyramid since birth. Derp, derp... Jerry Palm here, slobber... derp.

[Lawrence Shocker]

As fun as it is to listen to Lunardi and hate on Palm, just want to remind everyone that the bracket matrix is the place to go to see where WSU is and who their competition is.

It averages out 80+ bracketologists so one bad egg isn't important, and updates often. Shockers are currently the last 10 seed.

http://bracketmatrix.com/