2016-17 Schedule

[ShockerFever]

Yeah, it's not an overly ambitious schedule. Paul Lusk would like to keep his job though so there you have it.

I would prefer a tougher schedule obviously. But it would be nice to get off to a good start for a change and with this schedule that is certainly possible. Does it hurt the Valley's RPI/SOS or peception? I don't know and I definitely don't care. You don't schedule for the benefit of the conference you make your schedule out to help yourself. And this one should build our confidence which is desperately needed. We need a slump buster, man.

Since I was asked specifically about Fontbonne: I don't know. It's a small, private school in St. Louis. I once met a Fontbonne undergrad and apparently she thought I was dumb because I kept calling it FONT-BONE. It's evidently not pronounced that way but it's a really small school so how should I have known? At least Fontbonne is a real school. I mean a bunch of those D3 schools that UNI and Drake play sound made up. Wartburg and Morningside are both probably made up.

So in terms of "sounding better", Fontbonne > Wartburg and Morningside?

So now we've moved on from college fashion smack to aesthetically pleasing D-3 smack?

Got it.

[Stickboy46]

I looked at last year's non-con sos for the Valley and it was pretty bad. How MSU came back with just as horrible a schedule as last year is so sad.

2015/16 MVC Non-Con SoS
7 Ill St
25 WSU
41 UNI
73 Bradley
97 Ind St
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
210 Evans
285 MSU
298 Drake
324 Loyola
325 SIU

I'd like to make the observation that the MVC's Coach of the Year, Barry Hinson won with a non-con sos of 325. Three hundred and twenty five.

Very large difference between the effort of the top and the bottom. Good thing to point out .. that for as much bad blood there is between WSU and ISUr, they are one of the few in the league that try and actually put themselves in a position to be successful.

[ShockerFever]

Very large difference between the effort of the top and the bottom. Good thing to point out .. that for as much bad blood there is between WSU and ISUr, they are one of the few in the league that try and actually put themselves in a position to be successful.

Yep. They just suck on delivery.

At least they have something to hang their hat on though.

[Stickboy46]

I am in favor of teams scheduling with a reasonable expectation of winning greater than 75% of their games.

Evansville screwed up... I think MoState might be making a smart move.

I'm curious on this train of thought. For the teams that scheduled to win 75% of their games, what was their goal besides just to win regular season games that no one hears about? The teams that scheduled so they could win last year look to be (non con RPI from above):
Evansville (210)
MSU (285)
Drake (298)
Loyola (324)
SIU (325)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but none of those teams played in a postseason tournament correct?

[Stickboy46]

Yep. They just suck on delivery.

At least they have something to hang their hat on though.

I'd rather have teams that try and fail, than teams that don't try.

[WuShock16]

The reality could be that the listed schedule was the best Missouri State could do. I mean, consider an alternative universe that puts WSU in the Big XII next season. We wouldn't be scheduling Missouri State.

I am trying to determine how I feel about guarantee games. On one hand, I agree with Mark Adams that they shouldn't happen. On the other hand, with the system in the way it is, ONE guarantee game for a program like Missouri State wouldn't kill them. Go get a payday against a top opponent, which would help your finances and help your non-conference SoS...the latter helps the whole conference. If your team is so fragile that a single blowout loss at (insert Power-5 team) would rip your team apart, you should stop competing in Division 1.

[1972Shocker]

Fontbonne?

NCAA Division III. A St. Louis school competing in the powerhouse SLIAC.

http://fontbonnegriffins.com/landing/index

They were 8-17 overall last year and 6-12 in the SLIAC.

BTB.

[MoValley John]

I'd rather have teams that try and fail, than teams that don't try.

I understand scheduling for your team, and your needs, but...

There is a huge, Grand Canyon gap between top and bottom. Indiana State had a noncon SOS of 97, then the next school is E'Ville at 210? That doesn't work. You can put together a challenging and winnable schedule without ending up with a 200+ noncon SOS. A SOS in the 300's should never happen. Ever.

I've waffled on buy games. I used to be absolutely against, but now I see some value. nothing wrong with an Evansville or Indiana State accepting a buy game from a power. Two for one's are great.

[_kai_]

A very interesting case study to look at would be comparing Illinois State and Evansville.

One has a great NC SoS the other pretty poor.

Both have similar RPI's, Evansville actually has a higher RPI (93 Evansville - 112 ISUr).

Both finished tied for 2nd in regular season at 12-6.

Evansville won 24 games, ISUr won 17.

ISUr ended up 0-3 against (1-25) ranked teams and 1-3 against (26-50) for a total of 1-6 against (1-50)

Evansville ended up 0-0 against (1-25) and 0-3 against (26-50) for a total of 0-3 against (1-50).

Really a tale of two cities right there. I'd say that scheduling up only really helps if you're winning some of those games, but not scheduling up and winning will put you about the same tier as teams at your level scheduling up.

Granted this is a very tunnel vision view only looking at 2 teams in terms of scheduling up or not, we would need more examples, but thought those were interesting.

Maybe our resident RPI and bracketologists can weigh in on which path is best to take.

[Stickboy46]

A very interesting case study to look at would be comparing Illinois State and Evansville.

One has a great NC SoS the other pretty poor.

Both have similar RPI's, Evansville actually has a higher RPI (93 Evansville - 112 ISUr).

Both finished tied for 2nd in regular season at 12-6.

Evansville won 24 games, ISUr won 17.

ISUr ended up 0-3 against (1-25) ranked teams and 1-3 against (26-50) for a total of 1-6 against (1-50)

Evansville ended up 0-0 against (1-25) and 0-3 against (26-50) for a total of 0-3 against (1-50).

Really a tale of two cities right there. I'd say that scheduling up only really helps if you're winning some of those games, but not scheduling up and winning will put you about the same tier as teams at your level scheduling up.

Granted this is a very tunnel vision view only looking at 2 teams in terms of scheduling up or not, we would need more examples, but thought those were interesting.

Maybe our resident RPI and bracketologists can weigh in on which path is best to take.

That's a decent analysis but this is my thought on it.

Scheduling down - If you schedule down and want to make the NCAA tournament you really have two options:
1. Go close to undefeated
2. Win in St. Louis

So very little control is in the players hands and very little margain for error.

Scheduling up gives you many more options to at least be considered:
1. Go close to undefeated
2. Go undefeated besides the big games
3. Win all your big games and have an average season otherwise
4. Win a couple of the big games without dropping really bad ones
5. Win St. Louis

There is a lot more control in the players hands in the second option. For your comparison Ill State lost all their big games and lost some games they shouldn't have. Evansville really had to close to undefeated to make it in.

[shoxxfmr]

When I went to college in St Louis many years ago, Fontbonne was a Catholic Girls College across the street from the Washington U dorms! We tried to integrate it a few times!! Not much luck as usual. Sounds like the Bares have a chance for a win!!

[pie n eye]

That's a decent analysis but this is my thought on it.

Scheduling down - If you schedule down and want to make the NCAA tournament you really have two options:
1. Go close to undefeated
2. Win in St. Louis

So very little control is in the players hands and very little margain for error.

Scheduling up gives you many more options to at least be considered:
1. Go close to undefeated
2. Go undefeated besides the big games
3. Win all your big games and have an average season otherwise
4. Win a couple of the big games without dropping really bad ones
5. Win St. Louis

There is a lot more control in the players hands in the second option. For your comparison Ill State lost all their big games and lost some games they shouldn't have. Evansville really had to close to undefeated to make it in.

From a WSU fans perspective (which we all are) I don't necessarily care if other teams give themselves a chance for an at large bid. I only care that they schedule/perform in a way that reduces the number of 200+ RPI teams in the valley.

In general, from a captain obvious perspective, it makes sense for teams that expect to finish at the top of the valley standings to create tougher schedules to give themselves a chance at an at large. On the other hand, the Drakes of the world should put together a schedule that should provide them the opportunity to win as many games as possible (a la SIU last year). Obviously there are many different ways to achieve the same goal which is better RPIs.

All of this I'm sure is much easier said than done.

[MadaboutWu]

A very interesting case study to look at would be comparing Illinois State and Evansville.

One has a great NC SoS the other pretty poor.

Both have similar RPI's, Evansville actually has a higher RPI (93 Evansville - 112 ISUr).

Didn't someone run hypothetical numbers on EU last year that showed if they replaced their 3 worst games with road games against top 100 opponents/mediocre BCS schools they would have improved their RPI even if they went 0-3 and really shot up if they went 1-2.

IIRC ISUr maybe lost more games to weak opponents in the non-con which maybe tilts the above example.

[DwShock]

Wartburg and Morningside are both probably made up.

I know a couple really HOT chicks that went to Wartburg. If I'm not mistaken it's a Lutheran School. Those German Americans can really be nice to look at.

[WuDrWu]

Yeah, it's not an overly ambitious schedule.

At least Fontbonne is a real school. I mean a bunch of those D3 schools that UNI and Drake play sound made up. Wartburg and Morningside are both probably made up.

That's not an overly ambitious schedule like I need to drop a couple of pounds....slight understatement, to say the least.

And even YOU can't even be real about the name.....Fontbonne sounds like some kind of porn style writing! Everyone has heard of Wartburg. Come on Casey.....