Redturd Game Thread

[shock-it-to-me]

I hope we see lots and lots of zone being played against us - we need the practice. Would rather see
Ron on a wing instead of the elbow. Like to see MM on the elbow with Ron and CF on the wings
waiting for Fred or MM to kick it to them.

Yes to all of this!

[choida]

Not bringing trouble but does Illinois state bring the curse of Deontae Hawkins? Just throwing it out there... Since we've been losing to them with him on their team.

[ShockerFever]

Not bringing trouble but does Illinois state bring the curse of Deontae Hawkins? Just throwing it out there... Since we've been losing to them with him on their team.

We swept them in the regular season last year.

I'm not sure what your point is?

[CBB_Fan]

Well, we're still ranked even after that bad loss to ISU. Guess the "sky is falling we're outside of the bubble" crowd is wrong yet again.

Never said we were outside the bubble. We are on the bubble, in that we are not guaranteed to make the tournament. We are on the "good" side of the bubble in that we are probably in, but even back at the Seton Hall loss it was obvious that we probably only have room for one loss to still feel comfortable. If we lose one more game we will be 21-7 heading into the MVC tournament, with one win against the top 50, an RPI of 31 and a SOS of 113. Lose two more games and we are 20-8 with an RPI of 54.

For comparison, the teams I would put on the bubble are:

Team - RPI, SOS, Top 50, Top 100
Colorado - 45, 44, 3-7, 8-10
George Washington - 45, 99, 3-3, 7-5
St. Joes - 32, 81, 1-4, 6-5
Monmouth - 42, 161, 2-2, 5-2
Texas Tech - 54, 4, 4-11, 6-13
VCU - 41, 68, 3-4, 8-7
Oregon State - 42, 15, 5-7, 8-11
Florida State - 47, 49, 4-7, 7-10
UCLA - 71, 9, 4-9, 9-12
Seton Hall - 47, 71, 3-6, 8-9
Kansas State - 60, 20, 4-3, 12-4
Syracuse - 53, 38, 5-7, 8-10
SDSU - 49, 82, 1-3, 4-5
Butler - 54, 66, 3-6, 7-8
Tulsa - 67, 60, 2-5, 4-9
Vanderbilt - 54, 30, 4-8, 6-11
UConn - 38, 57, 2-4, 7-9
Gonzaga - 49, 109, 1-4, 3-6
Georgetown - 72, 14, 3-9, 7-12
Cincinnati - 47, 75, 4-5, 7-8
Washington - 62, 33, 4-8, 9-10
St. Bonaventure - 51, 79, 2-4, 5-7
Georgia - 78, 36, 1-7, 5-11

Let's say we run the Valley and lose in the tournament to Evansville. That would make us 25-6, RPI 25, SOS 106, 1-3 vs top 50, 4-5 vs top 100. Probably solidly in. Lose @ Indiana State, and RPI goes to 28. Lose @ Indiana State and in the MVC Semis vs Illinois State? RPI 54, no wins against top 50 teams. We do not dance if that scenario occurs. Even if we win out till the semis we'd have an RPI of 40, a terrible SOS, and a record completely devoid of top50 victories. That would put us on the cusp of the bubble IMHO.

If we had won @ Illinois State and went on to lose in the semis we'd have an RPI of 29. I think that would be high enough to guarantee a tournament spot. It was a big loss for our tournament aspirations.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

@CBB_Fan:, WSU has a better resume than every single team you listed. WSU is not currently on the bubble.

If you disagree, name just one of them and I'll show you why WSU is in better shape.

[Rollbird5]

We swept them in the regular season last year.

I'm not sure what your point is?

For reference Birds are 2-1 vs wsu with him in the lineup, didn't play the first game cuz of injury.

[shockmonster]

Not bringing trouble but does Illinois state bring the curse of Deontae Hawkins? Just throwing it out there... Since we've been losing to them with him on their team.

Do you also believe in Witches in the Salem Witch Trials or the Legend of Sleepy Hollow?

[CBB_Fan]

@CBB_Fan, WSU has a better resume than every single team you listed. WSU is not currently on the bubble.

If you disagree, name just one of them and I'll show you why WSU is in better shape.

Tell me how my worst case scenario (two losses) of RPI 54, SOS 120, 0-3 vs Top 50, 3-5 vs top 100 beats:

Colorado - 45, 44, 3-7, 8-10
George Washington - 45, 99, 3-3, 7-5
St. Joes - 32, 81, 1-4, 6-5
Monmouth - 42, 161, 2-2, 5-2
Texas Tech - 54, 4, 4-11, 6-13
VCU - 41, 68, 3-4, 8-7
Oregon State - 42, 15, 5-7, 8-11
Florida State - 47, 49, 4-7, 7-10
Seton Hall - 47, 71, 3-6, 8-9
Kansas State - 60, 20, 4-3, 12-4
Syracuse - 53, 38, 5-7, 8-10
SDSU - 49, 82, 1-3, 4-5
Butler - 54, 66, 3-6, 7-8
Vanderbilt - 54, 30, 4-8, 6-11
UConn - 38, 57, 2-4, 7-9
Cincinnati - 47, 75, 4-5, 7-8
St. Bonaventure - 51, 79, 2-4, 5-7

We have the lowest top 50 wins of the field, since we have 0. We have the lowest top 100 wins, lowest SoS, and beat only Texas Tech, Syracuse, Butler, and Vanderbilt in RPI. I would argue each of those teams would get priority over us in the worst scenario, and several of those with lower RPI (even significantly lower) would have an advantage just because we severely lack in quality victories.

[Play Angry]

Is there a reason why you keep saying we have zero Top 50 wins? Utah has a 1 in 16 chance of finishing below that threshold. Are you embracing two sigma outcomes now and assuming they are automatic?

[CBB_Fan]

Is there a reason why you keep saying we have zero Top 50 wins? Utah has a 1 in 16 chance of finishing below that threshold. Are you embracing two sigma outcomes now and assuming they are automatic?

I was just taking the number from http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita%20St..html, which quite possibly just wrong. It doesn't make much difference if we have 1 or 0 though, because the two other 1-win teams would have better RPIs, SOSs, and Top100 results. As to our chances, going off that same site:

22-6 - 30.6 - 52%
21-7 - 41.3 - 36.7%
20-8 - 53.8 - 10.2%
19-9 - 65.6 - 1.36

I did not even take into account the possibility that we would lose 2+ more games in conference. If we assume a 50% chance to win the MVC tournament, a 30% chance to lose in the finals, and a 20% chance to lose in the semis then the odds of a perfect sweep are about 25%, the odds of losing 1 game are 44%, the odds of losing 2 are 23%, and the odds of losing 3+ games is 6.2% (which I completely neglected). Just going to ignore NMSt.

That means that I think give us a maximum bound of 23% to miss the tournament. I think the actual number is maybe half that, which puts us in a favorable but not completely safe position. Certainly many programs are in a worse spot, but I still think I would call us a bubble team. IMHO needing to maintain a 70-80% winrate to close the season shows that we do not have a secure spot.

[1979Shocker]

Per both BPI and KPI, that was our worst game of the year, overtaking the Iowa game. So our absolute worst game of the year, and we still nearly won the game.

And if it hadn't been for Illinois State shooting about 20% above their FT% average and us shooting about 10% below ours, we would have won.

[ShockerFever]

Never said we were outside the bubble. We are on the bubble, in that we are not guaranteed to make the tournament. We are on the "good" side of the bubble in that we are probably in, but even back at the Seton Hall loss it was obvious that we probably only have room for one loss to still feel comfortable. If we lose one more game we will be 21-7 heading into the MVC tournament, with one win against the top 50, an RPI of 31 and a SOS of 113. Lose two more games and we are 20-8 with an RPI of 54.

For comparison, the teams I would put on the bubble are:

Team - RPI, SOS, Top 50, Top 100
Colorado - 45, 44, 3-7, 8-10
George Washington - 45, 99, 3-3, 7-5
St. Joes - 32, 81, 1-4, 6-5
Monmouth - 42, 161, 2-2, 5-2
Texas Tech - 54, 4, 4-11, 6-13
VCU - 41, 68, 3-4, 8-7
Oregon State - 42, 15, 5-7, 8-11
Florida State - 47, 49, 4-7, 7-10
UCLA - 71, 9, 4-9, 9-12
Seton Hall - 47, 71, 3-6, 8-9
Kansas State - 60, 20, 4-3, 12-4
Syracuse - 53, 38, 5-7, 8-10
SDSU - 49, 82, 1-3, 4-5
Butler - 54, 66, 3-6, 7-8
Tulsa - 67, 60, 2-5, 4-9
Vanderbilt - 54, 30, 4-8, 6-11
UConn - 38, 57, 2-4, 7-9
Gonzaga - 49, 109, 1-4, 3-6
Georgetown - 72, 14, 3-9, 7-12
Cincinnati - 47, 75, 4-5, 7-8
Washington - 62, 33, 4-8, 9-10
St. Bonaventure - 51, 79, 2-4, 5-7
Georgia - 78, 36, 1-7, 5-11

Let's say we run the Valley and lose in the tournament to Evansville. That would make us 25-6, RPI 25, SOS 106, 1-3 vs top 50, 4-5 vs top 100. Probably solidly in. Lose @ Indiana State, and RPI goes to 28. Lose @ Indiana State and in the MVC Semis vs Illinois State? RPI 54, no wins against top 50 teams. We do not dance if that scenario occurs. Even if we win out till the semis we'd have an RPI of 40, a terrible SOS, and a record completely devoid of top50 victories. That would put us on the cusp of the bubble IMHO.

If we had won @ Illinois State and went on to lose in the semis we'd have an RPI of 29. I think that would be high enough to guarantee a tournament spot. It was a big loss for our tournament aspirations.

You are hilarious.

[CBB_Fan]

You are hilarious.

http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/files/2009/08/disagreement-hierarchy-600x455.jpg

Your arguments are on the bottom. On your good days, level two. On REALLY good days, level 3. I have never seen you put forth the effort to do anything more than call someone names and point fingers like the proverbial playground bully. Most of your posts are one-sentence quips calling people idiots, special, or moronic; how many of your 23,000 posts are just insults? 5,000? 10,000? It takes a special type of person to devote so much time and energy to hate. And it is so transparent. When we lose, you relieve yourself by immediately looking for someone to attack. Go back to Seton Hall, to Orlando, to last year's semi-finals, etc. I'm sure you attack someone within 30 minutes of the loss (maybe even within seconds), and continue attacking for days. You single-handedly start half the arguments and flame-wars on the site; you even turned the POSTING GUIDELINES into a flame war.

I find your behavior to be overly aggressive and unhealthy. If this is the way you are in your personal life, I hope you see a therapist. I wish you the best, because from what's I've seen of your personality you'll need it.

[choida]

http://scienceblogs.com/startswithab...hy-600x455.jpg

Your arguments are on the bottom. On your good days, level two. On REALLY good days, level 3. I have never seen you put forth the effort to do anything more than call someone names and point fingers like the proverbial playground bully. Most of your posts are one-sentence quips calling people idiots, special, or moronic; how many of your 23,000 posts are just insults? 5,000? 10,000? It takes a special type of person to devote so much time and energy to hate. And it is so transparent. When we lose, you relieve yourself by immediately looking for someone to attack. Go back to Seton Hall, to Orlando, to last year's semi-finals, etc. I'm sure you attack someone within 30 minutes of the loss (maybe even within seconds), and continue attacking for days. You single-handedly start half the arguments and flame-wars on the site; you even turned the POSTING GUIDELINES into a flame war.

I find your behavior to be overly aggressive and unhealthy. If this is the way you are in your personal life, I hope you see a therapist. I wish you the best, because from what's I've seen of your personality you'll need it.

He's basically the sheep that i don't lose sleep over... And neither should you...

[ShockerFever]

http://scienceblogs.com/startswithab...hy-600x455.jpg

Your arguments are on the bottom. On your good days, level two. On REALLY good days, level 3. I have never seen you put forth the effort to do anything more than call someone names and point fingers like the proverbial playground bully. Most of your posts are one-sentence quips calling people idiots, special, or moronic; how many of your 23,000 posts are just insults? 5,000? 10,000? It takes a special type of person to devote so much time and energy to hate. And it is so transparent. When we lose, you relieve yourself by immediately looking for someone to attack. Go back to Seton Hall, to Orlando, to last year's semi-finals, etc. I'm sure you attack someone within 30 minutes of the loss (maybe even within seconds), and continue attacking for days. You single-handedly start half the arguments and flame-wars on the site; you even turned the POSTING GUIDELINES into a flame war.

I find your behavior to be overly aggressive and unhealthy. If this is the way you are in your personal life, I hope you see a therapist. I wish you the best, because from what's I've seen of your personality you'll need it.

That was even more hilarious.