Bradley Game Thread

[RoyalShock]

I don't have an opinion as to whether Evan is a net asset or liability when compared to the alternatives. What I do know is that the coaches grade players after every game using metrics we aren't privy to and may not even recognize while watching the game. I suspect, given the amount of time Evan gets on the court, he grades well.

[Dan]

The problem is not Evan, it's that we don't have enough other talent/experience to take his minutes. I'd love to have another Cle on the team, but we're not there right now.

[shocka khan]

Did the rabbits foot play 25 minutes per game? Because playing more than 10% of a team's minutes while racking up 90% wins, goes just a little bit beyond correlation.

No, but maybe the four leaf clovers did.

I bet all four leaf clovers everywhere in the world are disappointed you didn't give them a participation award.

[jdshock]

But more to your point, I believe I need to hold my fire for now, and see whether the statements I have made will be validated or not.

Unfortunately, we will never know with certainty. If we tailspin and end up in the NIT despite starting EW, we will have no way of knowing if we would have done better had we played Kelly 30 minutes a game. Similarly, if we end up winning the National Championship with JRS as our starting power forward, we just can't know that we wouldn't have done so had we played EW instead.

The best part about internet fighting is that none of us ever have to be wrong.

[Cdizzle]

No, but maybe the four leaf clovers did.

I bet all four leaf clovers everywhere in the world are disappointed you didn't give them a participation award.

I'm sorry I disappointed you...err the four leaf clovers, by making your.... errr their relevance to this discussion seem pointless.

[WstateU]

Unfortunately, we will never know with certainty. If we tailspin and end up in the NIT despite starting EW, we will have no way of knowing if we would have done better had we played Kelly 30 minutes a game. Similarly, if we end up winning the National Championship with JRS as our starting power forward, we just can't know that we wouldn't have done so had we played EW instead.

The best part about internet fighting is that none of us ever have to be wrong.

[asiseeit]

EW has been an important part of our success during his tenure here. He has been on the
court so much of the time during the final minutes of close games, come back games, AND
was so critical in our defeating KU. GM trusts him and I trust the only man with a vote - GM.

[im4wsu]

Some statistics, per KenPom.

Evan trails the following in Offensive Rebound % this season (The percentage of available offensive rebounds a player gets while he is on the floor):
Rashard Kelly
Shaquille Morris
Zach Brown
Eric Hamilton
Anton Grady

Evan trails the following in Defensive Rebound % this season (The percentage of available defensive rebounds a player gets while he is on the floor):
Rauno Nurger
Rashard Kelly
Shaquille Morris
Markis McDuffie
Ron Baker
Eric Hamilton
Ty Taylor
Anton Grady
Fred VanVleet

Evan trails the following in Steal % this season (the % of possessions the player records a steal while on the court):
JR Simon
Rashard Kelly
Conner Frankamp
Shaquille Morris
Markis McDuffie
Zach Brown
Ron Baker
Ty Taylor
Anton Grady
Fred VanVleet

Also, his usage rate (the percentage of possessions where he is the final person to touch the ball) rates him as "Nearly Invisible" per KenPom for this year. I could cite a number of other statistics where he is dead last among starters and one of the lowest out of our 10 man rotation, including Offensive Rating, effective FG %, true shooting %, and block %.

Listen, Evan is a great kid and representative of the university and basketball program. He is not a great D1 basketball player. And this is a clear misapplication of correlation and causation.

What do any of these statistics of offensive performance have to do with the question of winning percentage and the FACT that the team seems to win a larger percentage of games when he plays as compared to that same statistic for his more offensive-minded teammates?

Will CF or RB or FVV even have the opportunity to be successful offensively if EW or SM or RK are not setting the screen for CF or opening the way for FVV to drive to the basket?

[im4wsu]

Remember, I did not make a grandiose claim, you did. And it is an invalid correlation to make when you say EW was a cause of our winning percentage. Sort of a superstition, if you will. Perhaps at the end of the season I can buy rabbits feet (one for each player coming back next year) or four-leaf clovers and claim in 4 years that it was the cause of the Shocker's success over that period.

And many of you have said I have some sort of chip on my shoulder regarding him. I don't. He's a great story, but he's a situational player. Against most of the teams we are about to play, the situation might be favorable for him to be out on the court, as he is a fan favorite and I hope he gets lots of minutes.

Nice try. Show me anywhere that I said EW was the cause of our winning percentage. I noted a correlation between the winning percentage of the team when he plays as compared to the similar statistic among his teammates. Nowhere did I suggest a cause. There may be some other intangible explanation!

[im4wsu]

I can name call with the best of them, ya jerk!

There's certainly room for both quantitative and qualitative analysis, but for some of the loose ball arguments to be true, those instances (what? maybe 2-3 times per game?) would have to occur at the same or greater frequency than the possibility of rebounds, steals, etc.

Another example: what if we put Markis McDuffie in for a series of possessions for Evan. If the hustle play that Evan got us rewards us in the form of 1-3 points, great, but what if McDuffie made one or two three pointers that Evan would not have made during that time period (a reasonable assumption given their shooting percentages)?

What if McDuffie never gets an opportunity to shoot because WSYU doesn't have possession (no Evan) or does not get as good a screen from CF as he does from EW? What if Baker's rebounding declines because EW isn't blocking out his man.

[im4wsu]

And I owned you the last time, when you used a rather derogatory remark to describe the learning disabled, so I wouldn't get too fired up about your perceptions of my debating skills.

But more to your point, I believe I need to hold my fire for now, and see whether the statements I have made will be validated or not. If I'm right, I won't back down. I don't think I'll be wrong, but if a miracle occurs and EW starts hitting 40+ percent of his shots and doubles his ppg average, I'll happily apologize to everyone on this board because it will mean we got everything out of our players in the end of season tourneys.

We all like our Shockers, we just don't always agree on who should be where in which situations.

And if he doesn't improve his percentage and WSU gets to the Final Four with EW playing 25-30 minutes per game, you'll be willing to say only that we'd have won the NC if McDuffie had started because he shot 10% higher fg%?

[shocka khan]

And if he doesn't improve his percentage and WSU gets to the Final Four with EW playing 25-30 minutes per game, you'll be willing to say only that we'd have won the NC if McDuffie had started because he shot 10% higher fg%?

On advice from my shockernet legal counsel (Kai), I have been advised to go get some fresh air. Your answer will have to wait.

[MoValley John]

Interesting thread diversion. I need some popcorn. Not crappy popcorn, the good popcorn from the classy theaters that sells drinks and full course dinners.

[Shocker-maniac]

This is total B.S. I am NOT "flattered" and Kahn is welcome to have my crown.

That is SO funny!

[BBjones]

The problem with EW is his man collapsing off of him and clogging the interior. He needs to hit a few to improve the offensive flow. KU dared him to shoot, and he made them pay. We need that EW, if we hope to make noise in March. Or we move Grady or Kelly to the 4 with the starters, and bring EW off the bench.