New Mexico State game canceled? [Rescheduled for Feb 15 @ 7pm]

[SB Shock]

These "projected RPIs" are meaningless because the numbers constantly evolve.

Actually it is more the realtime RPI that are more meaningless at the momement, but are starting to firm up with the end of non-conference season.

The projected RPI show you how things are likely to evolve. Teams who have played weak non-conference records but play in strong conference will have real-time RPI lower and their RPI will evolve to much stronger numbers as they get into conference season and vice versa.

KU RPI 22, Projected 3
Louisville 30, Projected 5
West Va 50, Projected 10
Texas 19, Projected 34

North Carolina 3, Project 13
Texas Tech 8, Projected 38

What you're projecting now is based on a snapshot of data at the current moment.

That is what Sagrin, Pomeroy, Massey make their living doing - they do prediction based on statistical projections. Therefore you can see:

a. The best or worst you can do (95% confidence limits)
b. Where you are at
c. Are you doing better or worse than projected

It's useless.

Far from useless. Right now you have a idea of where WSU RPI is going to be based on where you think WSU final record will be even if you don't know how their exact path may be. Now can this change - of course. If the teams on your non-conference schedule do better than projections then you will be helped, and vice versa. In the end it all averages out because some teams will do better and some worse.

This doesn't even consider all the different outcomes,

Sure it does. It based off of 10,000 simulations using Sagrin Predictor.

So saying this game is worth 4 RPI points is beyond dumb, because it'll change.

Yes it could change. The game could be worth more if NMST does better than what Sagrin predicts Or it could be worse if NMST loses every game. But at this moment you know it not likely a drain on your RPI and a worthwhile game to have on your schedule to help dilute what about to hit WSU SOS in the new year with the stinking pile of MVC teams they are about to play.


All data was taken from

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

[_kai_]

[1972Shocker]

Looks like the first flights from El Paso to Dallas and Houston today have just gotten in the air in the last 15 minutes.

https://www.flightview.com/airport/ELP-El_Paso-TX/departures

[1972Shocker]

The current expectation from the RPIforecast.com site is that the Shockers will finish with an RPI of 65 and according to @SBShock we would expect that to be at 69 if we don't play the NMSU game. So all other things being equal the NMSU game is not very relevant from a purely RPI standpoint. However, this year in particular for the Shocks, everything is not equal because we don't really know how the committee will factor in our sans-Fred record. Because of that it would be nice to get another non-conference win against a Top 150 team (assuming NMSU finishes as projected at 149).

[SB Shock]

The current expectation from the RPIforecast.com site is that the Shockers will finish with an RPI of 65 and according to @SBShock we would expect that to be at 69 if we don't play the NMSU game. So all other things being equal the NMSU game is not very relevant from a purely RPI standpoint. However, this year in particular for the Shocks, everything is not equal because we don't really know how the committee will factor in our sans-Fred record. Because of that it would be nice to get another non-conference win against a Top 150 team (assuming NMSU finishes as projected at 149).

Unfortunately the MVC continues to suck in non-conference. A couple caveats to your number you posted. The 69 is the raw number and actual projected RPI would be 57. That number is generated for WSU finishing 14-4 in conference and NMST victory.

If WSU goes in non-conference

15-3 RPI 49 (raw)
16-2 RPI 39 (raw)

[pinstripers]

Paul Suellentrop @PaulS:uellentrop · 5m5 minutes ago
If New Mexico State has departed, they haven't told Wichita State. From what I can tell, the Aggies are still waiting on a plane.

[WSUwatcher]

Given their league, I'd expect NMSU to be the top team in the WAC -- not a super high bar, admittedly, but still the top team and with a pretty good final record, which will cause WSU's RPI to be higher than otherwise -- and thus a win over them at least to be a small plus on the resume. WSU especially wants to pile up as many wins as possible in the "LeFred is back" part of their season, inasmuch as that's supposedly what the selectors will be looking at most closely. So it's better to play than not, barring a weird and unexpected loss because the guys (and fans!) aren't ready for a Tuesday matinee.

[molly jabali]

SIAP, but ESPN lists the game as postponed.

[FriscoFriend]

If WSU goes in non-conference

15-3 RPI 49 (raw)
16-2 RPI 39 (raw)

How about projecting the following:

18-0
17-1 (Loss at UNI)

Knowing how Marshall tends to motivate, I believe either one is realistic.

FriscoFriend

[pinstripers]

Paul Suellentrop @PaulS:uellentrop · 16m16 minutes ago
Aggies are indeed still in Las Cruces, still working to get a charter plane. If they can't get out tonight, they will try in the morning.

[Play Angry]

How about projecting the following:

18-0
17-1 (Loss at UNI)

Knowing how Marshall tends to motivate, I believe either one is realistic.

FriscoFriend

All of this and more is available here (and at the RPIWizard link on the destination page): http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita%20St..html

[1972Shocker]

Unfortunately the MVC continues to suck in non-conference. A couple caveats to your number you posted. The 69 is the raw number and actual projected RPI would be 57. That number is generated for WSU finishing 14-4 in conference and NMST victory.

If WSU goes in non-conference

15-3 RPI 49 (raw)
16-2 RPI 39 (raw)

Okay. I thought raw RPI numbers were decimals such as the 0.5645 shown under RPI Forecast column for the Shockers and that the whole numbers are RPI rankings. I see a current RPI of 57 (raw score of 0.5840) with a projected RPI of 65 (row score of 0.5645) based on a projected record of 20-9. When I run the RPI Wizard and drop the NMSU game I get an expected RPI ranking of 59 with a projected record of 19-9. Which would indicate playing NMSU actually hurts us by 6 spots based on these projections.

I also see under the RPI Forecast by Final Record a projected RPI of 60.3 with a record of 20-9. Not sure why that number is a fraction or why it is different from the previously noted projected RPI ranking of 65 with a 20-9 record.

There is a good chance I am totally misinterpreting these numbers as I have never looked at this web site before.

[SB Shock]

All of this and more is available here (and at the RPIWizard link on the destination page): http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita St..html

As Play Angry alluded to:


18-0 (24-5): RPI 25
17-1 (23-6): RPI 32

[1972Shocker]

As Play Angry alluded to:


18-0 (24-5): RPI 25
17-1 (23-6): RPI 32

If you run the RPI Wizard and change all the probabilities to win including New Mexico State you get a projected RPI of 26. If you then change @UNI to a loss it returns an RPI of 28.

If I drop the New Mexico State game I get RPI's of 28 (18-0 in MVC) and 29 (17-1 in MVC).

Bottom line is if we go 17-1 or 18-0 in conference play we will have punched out ticket to the dance regardless of whether we get the NMSU game in or not.

OTOH hand the probability of us going 17-1 using Sagarin's predictors is less than 5% and the probability that we go 18-0 is less than 1%. So to quote one of Shockernet's favorite philosopher kings we actually have a decent chance:

[SB Shock]

Okay. I thought raw RPI numbers were decimals such as the 0.5645 shown under RPI Forecast column for the Shockers and that the whole numbers are RPI rankings. I see a current RPI of 57 (raw score of 0.5840) with a projected RPI of 65 (row score of 0.5645) based on a projected record of 20-9. When I run the RPI Wizard and drop the NMSU game I get an expected RPI ranking of 59 with a projected record of 19-9. Which would indicate playing NMSU actually hurts us by 6 spots based on these projections.

I also see under the RPI Forecast by Final Record a projected RPI of 60.3 with a record of 20-9. Not sure why that number is a fraction or why it is different from the previously noted projected RPI ranking of 65 with a 20-9 record.

There is a good chance I am totally misinterpreting these numbers as I have never looked at this web site before.

I should have said EXPECTED RPI as RAW can be misleading and be confused with the RPI FORECAST column.

There is a expected RPI number which is a decimal. If you noticed for example the #1 RPI team has RPI 4.7. This is because this calculated number. Then there is OVERALL RPI (which is whole number) this is RANK of the calculated or EXPECTED RPI. I kind of look at the difference as margin of error, the author of the site considers the EXPECTED RPI to better number.

Here is what I got for with NMST on the schedule




Here is what I got for with NMST dropped from schedule



The previous scenario where I came up with -4 RPI change was with WSU going 16-2 in the league and only having losses on the road to evansville and uni.

w/NMST on schedule and w/o NMST on schedule