Shocker 2015/16 Season Prediction Poll

[shock-it-to-me]

We will take our lumps until Fred and CF are able to join the team. Come March we will
probably be around a twelve seed and all the prognosticators will be commenting that no
one wants to have to play us - and the coach of the team that draws us will groan.

This is an accurate scenario. Hope it comes true.

[WSUwatcher]

I started to put this under media love, which isn't really accurate on either count (media or love), but then it occurred to me that stuff about Warren Nolan's latest guesses for final conference standings -- and "guesses" may be a kind description considering the way they jump around -- probably fits better under the heading of season predictions. So I excavated quite a pile of threads (I was down to page 6 before I found this), and speaking of guesses, guess what?

According to his website as of 5pm today when I started to write this before family activities intervened, Nolan was predicting a tie for the MVC championship between north and south: the UNIs and SIU (really!), both at 14-4, with WSU and Evansville tying for third at 13-5. Where his Think-a-Tron machine found five conference losses for the Shocks I have no idea, but that was the forecast. Maybe the mere act of playing at Bradley, regardless of how easy the win, is so damaging to a team's profile that losses are assumed to follow.

What's even more amusing is that as I now finish this post just before midnight, with no Valley games having been played, the Shocks have strengthened enough that Nolan is predicting WSU to join the first place jumble at 14-4, creating a three-way tie with the same powerhouse pair as before, while Evansville, still at 13-5, now finishes fourth in his look into the MVC's future. Is Warrennolan.com headquartered on the second floor above a, uh, dispensary somewhere in Colorado, or what?

[Shocker85]

Is Warrennolan.com headquartered on the second floor above a, uh, dispensary somewhere in Colorado, or what?

Warrennolan.com and every other rating/ranking service are computer generated savants that are not capable of performing an eye test. They use statistics and standings as input to a program that generate a list of relative statistical probability of how teams will perform in the future based upon the past. That doesn't measure matchups well and it doesn't measure heart or desire.

The other discriminator that isn't statistically significant yet (due to relatively small sample size) is head to head matchups. In conference now, the pecking order well shake itself out more each week.

At least that's what I think.

[RussDaBus]

Kenpom has us at 15-3 projected conference record but only projects us to lose by 1 at Evansville. Not sure how it works but that seems more realistic than 13-5. Plus I trust Kenpom way more than any other site.

Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning
each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.

[WSUwatcher]

Yes, Russ -- I think 15-3 is far more plausible than 13-5 or 14-4, and is still probably conservative as the Shockers continue to improve, get back into their normal groove with LeFred running the show (and Anton continuing to recover), and display the determination we all expect from them as this group works to make their final season together a special one. Of course, we'll also know more after this week, including their visit to what may or may not be a real team in Carbondale. But I still don't expect as many as three conference losses from this team as long as they're healthy, even to the extent they currently are, and better results still if Shamet is able to return and contribute.

By the way, are his projections still available in the free area on KenPom? I took a quick look and didn't see them, but it's also possible I just overlooked them.

[FlyingWheat]

Yes, Russ -- I think 15-3 is far more plausible than 13-5 or 14-4, and is still probably conservative as the Shockers continue to improve, get back into their normal groove with LeFred running the show (and Anton continuing to recover), and display the determination we all expect from them as this group works to make their final season together a special one. Of course, we'll also know more after this week, including their visit to what may or may not be a real team in Carbondale. But I still don't expect as many as three conference losses from this team as long as they're healthy, even to the extent they currently are, and better results still if Shamet is able to return and contribute.

By the way, are his projections still available in the free area on KenPom? I took a quick look and didn't see them, but it's also possible I just overlooked them.

Projections are in the paid area.