Non-Conference Schedule needs more.

[Dupe]

Here's a fun question: Exactly how tough of a schedule do you have to put together in the non-conference to create enough grace period to sustain the MVC portion and stay a top end SOS kind of team at the end of the year?

...and can it even be done even if you played #1-15 consecutively during November and December? Because if it can't, then the non-conference SOS debate is like splitting hairs over whether or not you end up #90 SOS as opposed to #110 or something like that. I don't really think there is anything more WSU can do about this when every year you enter the MVC at the top end and finish the MVC unable to get a good seed anymore just because of how much of your SOS they ate as they lost to WSU. If they seeded the dance on December 31st, we would probably not have been a 7 seed :)

[WuShock16]

And maybe KU is a bad example. If I remember right, one of their recent seasons they were the only team in the top-100 in the top 10 NCSOS. Bill Self may be a chicken about scheduling us, but they have had pretty brutal non-conference schedules.

Yes, KU does play tough schedules---no doubt about that. Here's my only problem with bowing down to them for playing those tough schedule.

IT'S THE FREAKING KANSAS JAYHAWKS! They should have a tough schedule, as should any blue blood. You can't tell me that Bill Self has any difficulty putting a good schedule together. With the exception of maybe North Carolina (Roy's not coming back to AFH) and Duke (they don't seem to schedule big non-conference games at Cameron outside of ACC/Big10 Challenge), KU could schedule a home-and-home with ANY team it wanted to schedule. KU can also contact any conference champion favorite from smaller conferences to get guarantee games. Of course, there is also access to a full-league slate in a Top-5-League RPI.

Give Wichita State access to the same kind of opponents and you'd see a difficult SoS here too.

[jdshock]

Yes, KU does play tough schedules---no doubt about that. Here's my only problem with bowing down to them for playing those tough schedule.

IT'S THE FREAKING KANSAS JAYHAWKS! They should have a tough schedule, as should any blue blood. You can't tell me that Bill Self has any difficulty putting a good schedule together. With the exception of maybe North Carolina (Roy's not coming back to AFH) and Duke (they don't seem to schedule big non-conference games at Cameron outside of ACC/Big10 Challenge), KU could schedule a home-and-home with ANY team it wanted to schedule. KU can also contact any conference champion favorite from smaller conferences to get guarantee games. Of course, there is also access to a full-league slate in a Top-5-League RPI.

Give Wichita State access to the same kind of opponents and you'd see a difficult SoS here too.

Absolutely, that's true. Part of my argument is that their schedule isn't that much "harder," though, even though the numbers love it a lot more.

For an example, let's say each team plays ten games. The first team plays a game that it only has a 40% chance of winning (absolute top tier team), then it plays nine games against teams that it has an 80% chance of beating (top 100~ish teams). The second team can't schedule that absolute top tier team. It schedules six games against teams it has a 60% chance of beating (top 30~ish games at home and top 50~ish away), and four games against teams it has a 90% chance of beating (bad teams). Team 1 has a 5.3% chance of going undefeated against its schedule. Team 2 has a 3.1% chance of going undefeated against its schedule.

Certainly I'm starting to nitpick, and we're talking about one tiny aspect of tournament selection at this point. I'm just saying that one team could have a schedule it has a better chance of going undefeated against and have a more difficult SOS than the same team with a lower probability of going undefeated even though the SOS is lower.

[ShockdaWorld]

Absolutely, that's true. Part of my argument is that their schedule isn't that much "harder," though, even though the numbers love it a lot more.

For an example, let's say each team plays ten games. The first team plays a game that it only has a 40% chance of winning (absolute top tier team), then it plays nine games against teams that it has an 80% chance of beating (top 100~ish teams). The second team can't schedule that absolute top tier team. It schedules six games against teams it has a 60% chance of beating (top 30~ish games at home and top 50~ish away), and four games against teams it has a 90% chance of beating (bad teams). Team 1 has a 5.3% chance of going undefeated against its schedule. Team 2 has a 3.1% chance of going undefeated against its schedule.

Certainly I'm starting to nitpick, and we're talking about one tiny aspect of tournament selection at this point. I'm just saying that one team could have a schedule it has a better chance of going undefeated against and have a more difficult SOS than the same team with a lower probability of going undefeated even though the SOS is lower.

I completely agree and understand the point you are making, but I must be too far removed from college to have any clue where your higher level calculations came from. At this point, I'm glad I can blame age instead of ignorance. LOL

[jdshock]

I completely agree and understand the point you are making, but I must be too far removed from college to have any clue where your higher level calculations came from. At this point, I'm glad I can blame age instead of ignorance. LOL

Haha, the percentages were just rough estimates on my part. I would think teams like WSU have roughly that percent chance against a team in that category. I could be way off base on that, in which case I hope someone can provide true estimates.

The 5.3% and 3.1% just came from multiplying all of the probabilities together (i.e., Team 1 = 0.4*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8, etc.)

As much as I enjoy stats, they can only ever get you so far. WSU's undefeated season just shouldn't have happened.

[wu_shizzle]

I know we would all like to play more higher ranked teams.

But don't get it twisted, we still want to schedule WINS.

Wins against good competition are better than losses against great competition.

The last 2 years have been near perfect for non-conference scheduling, given the projected strength of our team.

[kochHead]

I know we would all like to play more higher ranked teams.

But don't get it twisted, we still want to schedule WINS.

Wins against good competition are better than losses against great competition.

The last 2 years have been near perfect for non-conference scheduling, given the projected strength of our team.

Well, when you put it that way, it is hard to argue with the results.

[ShockerPrez]

Wins against good competition are better than losses against great competition.

Uh. I'm pretty sure that's not true.

(See any KU loss)

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

But don't get it twisted, we still want to schedule WINS.

I disagree. Games against inferior competition (even if they are "good, NIT level teams") are not the ideal. At least not in my mind.

If we are talking about what we want, then I want teams that are elite, just like the Shox. The goal should not be to play the toughest schedule that still allows you to win them all. When shooting for national championships, the goal should be to play enough of the other title contenders so that you have a chance to prove yourself. When you are one of the best, you want to play the best.

Overscheduling (playing too many difficult games) only happens when your team isn't that good or when you are in the position to schedule as many top 10 teams as you want (KU has that ability). WSU is nowhere near either scenario and therefore, IMO, there is no reason any game should be avoided because it was "too difficult".

[Steeleshocker]

I disagree. Games against inferior competition (even if they are "good, NIT level teams") are not the ideal. At least not in my mind.

If we are talking about what we want, then I want teams that are elite, just like the Shox. The goal should not be to play the toughest schedule that still allows you to win them all. When shooting for national championships, the goal should be to play enough of the other title contenders so that you have a chance to prove yourself. When you are one of the best, you want to play the best.

Overscheduling (playing too many difficult games) only happens when your team isn't that good or when you are in the position to schedule as many top 10 teams as you want (KU has that ability). WSU is nowhere near either scenario and therefore, IMO, there is no reason any game should be avoided because it was "too difficult".

I agree you want to test yourself against the best, but you also don't want to overload your schedule with only top 15 teams, as that would be exhausting and limit your opportunity to develop depth.

[Rlh04d]

Can someone define how WSU was "hurt" by their non-conference schedule?

At what point could they have been "helped" instead of hurt by their non-conference schedule?

And if they were "hurt", wasn't some other team "hurt" more? Or was WSU hurt the most? I'm just trying to get a handle on all this hurt WSU is suffering due to flawed non-conference scheduling.

Thanks.

Well, if Memphis and SLU kept up their NCAA at-large bid streak, WSU would probably have been a three seed this last year.

I wonder: If WSU had been a three seed and made it to the Elite 8, would that have been a better year than beating Kansas to make the Sweet 16? I bet we got more publicity and attention from that Kansas game than we would have playing an easier opponent and getting an extra two days in the tourney.

On the topic of next year's non-con schedule, I wish WSU/FSU would play a home/home this coming season starting in Tallahassee. Perfect scheduling opportunity for WSU: Florida State will be far, far better at the end of the year than at the beginning. And the year after, when FSU's top 10 recruiting class are sophomores, they'd be coming to Wichita.

[shockmonster]

Scheduling games that are too difficult only applies to playing a Top 20 team as a buy game or if we have too many road games on the schedule in the same year. If we have a H/H game we have enough home games on the schedule, we need to take it.

Not only are SASO prices going up, ticket prices are going up too at an undecided rate as of now. I do expect to have some home games besides IBA which is not a part of the season ticket package.

[Shocker-maniac]

I do expect to have some home games besides IBA which is not a part of the season ticket package.

Can you expound upon this, please?

[ripemupshocks]

On the topic of next year's non-con schedule, I wish WSU/FSU would play a home/home this coming season starting in Tallahassee. Perfect scheduling opportunity for WSU: Florida State will be far, far better at the end of the year than at the beginning. And the year after, when FSU's top 10 recruiting class are sophomores, they'd be coming to Wichita.

FSU could have the #1 recruiting class and it wouldn't matter, because they'd still have Leonard Hamilton. :D

[Rlh04d]

FSU could have the #1 recruiting class and it wouldn't matter, because they'd still have Leonard Hamilton. :D

Hey, I'm a Ham fan. He has the single worst ACC basketball program, in revenue, fan attendance, and university support, and puts up a middling ACC team that makes the NCAA tournament somewhat regularly. Six NIT bids, four NCAA bids, and a Sweet 16 in 13 years for FSU is pretty damn impressive, considering 9/10ths of FSU's student body couldn't find the basketball arena on a map.

But I'm suggesting FSU because they'll be a top 25-50 RPI team for the next two consecutive years and an NCAA tournament in at least one of those, and WSU would wipe them off the court in both games. Because Ham.

I'm excited for FSU's basketball team next year, almost entirely because the combination of Coach Ham and Dwayne Bacon leads to all sorts of brilliant Ham & Bacon references. I'm sure they're probably playing basketball or something, too.