2015 Bracketology

[Play Angry]

@Jamar Howard 4 President, I'd be a grateful dude if you could give us a best guess where we'd project in the scenarios below.


0 more regular season losses (10.56% chance per RPIForecast)
1 more regular season loss (30.25% chance per RPIForecast)
2 more regular season losses (32.84% chance per RPIForecast)

[shockerfanmas]

@Jamar Howard 4 President, I'd be a grateful dude if you could give us a best guess where we'd project in the scenarios below.


0 more regular season losses (10.56% chance per RPIForecast)
1 more regular season loss (30.25% chance per RPIForecast)
2 more regular season losses (32.84% chance per RPIForecast)

I'm not JH4P, but I'll give it a go. If the Shox run the table the rest of the way, I could see them getting to a 3 seed, I think getting a 1 or 2 seed is unreasonable at this point. 1 more loss, and I say the committee moves WSU down to a 5 seed. 2 or more losses could have the Shox at a 6 or 7 seed. Of course, we all know there's a huge difference between a 3 or 4 loss P5 team and a 3 or 4 loss Wichita St. team. The 3 or 4 loss P5 team? Probably a #1 seed, at worst 2. A 3 or 4 loss Wichita St. team? Anywhere from a 4 to a 7 seed. Just my observation based on selection committees.

[Rlh04d]

@Jamar Howard 4 President, I'd be a grateful dude if you could give us a best guess where we'd project in the scenarios below.


0 more regular season losses (10.56% chance per RPIForecast)
1 more regular season loss (30.25% chance per RPIForecast)
2 more regular season losses (32.84% chance per RPIForecast)

Tough to compare things blatantly between years, but check out San Diego State last year as a four seed. As a quick projection for how we'd match up to them if we lost two more games (say, @UNI and @IlSt):

	SDSU 13/14	WSU 14/15
vs D1	27-4	28-4
SOS	107	84
NonconSOS	158	10
RPI	17	12
vs top 25	3-3	3-2
vs top 50	3-3	5-3
vs top 100	6-3	11-4

(RPI Forecast for the predicted RPI numbers, and kept everyone else at their current RPIs, except IlSt as a top 100 team ... moved them up for beating us, so you could remove both one top 100 win and loss if you wanted. I also gave us Bradley/Indiana State at Arch Madness, to low-ball the benefit of those first two games.)

Obviously very dependent on the teams around us, but we'd have a significantly superior resume to SDSU's last season.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

@Jamar Howard 4 President, I'd be a grateful dude if you could give us a best guess where we'd project in the scenarios below.


0 more regular season losses (10.56% chance per RPIForecast)
1 more regular season loss (30.25% chance per RPIForecast)
2 more regular season losses (32.84% chance per RPIForecast)

Obviously, there are many unknown factors, such as how the rest of the top 25 performs from here on out. However, here is my best guess.

Including the MVC Tournament and assuming at least a championship game appearance:
31-2: 2 Seed
30-3: 2 Seed
29-4: 3 Seed
28-5: 5 Seed
27-6: 6 Seed
26-7: 8 Seed

Take each of those projections and drop WSU one spot if they fail to reach the MVC finals.

Anyone else care to stick their neck out and make a prediction? This could be fun to look back at come Selection Sunday.

[Shocktoberfest]

Obviously, there are many unknown factors, such as how the rest of the top 25 performs from here on out. However, here is my best guess.

Including the MVC Tournament and assuming at least a championship game appearance:
31-2: 2 Seed
30-3: 2 Seed
29-4: 3 Seed
28-5: 5 Seed
27-6: 6 Seed
26-7: 8 Seed

Take each of those projections and drop WSU one spot if they fail to reach the MVC finals. My one exception would be if they have only 2 losses. I think 2 losses equals a 2 seed regardless of win total.

After thinking about the possibilities now I am really jonesing for us to run the table the rest of the way. 1 and 2 seed in back to back years. Holy crap!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I'm not JH4P, but I'll give it a go. If the Shox run the table the rest of the way, I could see them getting to a 3 seed, I think getting a 1 or 2 seed is unreasonable at this point. 1 more loss, and I say the committee moves WSU down to a 5 seed. 2 or more losses could have the Shox at a 6 or 7 seed. Of course, we all know there's a huge difference between a 3 or 4 loss P5 team and a 3 or 4 loss Wichita St. team. The 3 or 4 loss P5 team? Probably a #1 seed, at worst 2. A 3 or 4 loss Wichita St. team? Anywhere from a 4 to a 7 seed. Just my observation based on selection committees.

You seem very down on the Shocker's chances at a good seed. There is no way whatsoever that WSU gets a 3 seed if they run the table from here on out. They would be a 2 seed at worst, and I would still hold out hope that a 1 seed would be possible at 31-2 and riding a 21 game winning streak.

Also, you think a 4 loss Wichita State team could fall as far as a 7 seed? No way Jose!

[Play Angry]

Obviously, there are many unknown factors, such as how the rest of the top 25 performs from here on out. However, here is my best guess.

Including the MVC Tournament and assuming at least a championship game appearance:
31-2: 2 Seed
30-3: 2 Seed
29-4: 3 Seed
28-5: 5 Seed
27-6: 6 Seed
26-7: 8 Seed

Take each of those projections and drop WSU one spot if they fail to reach the MVC finals.

Anyone else care to stick their neck out and make a prediction? This could be fun to look back at come Selection Sunday.

This is perfect, much appreciated.

I think a lot of folks prematurely sell our prospects short on here. This post and @Rlh04d's comparison above confirm we have a very solid shot at a 2 or 3 seed, which is an outstanding starting position for the dance.

Thanks again.

[wufan]

Back in 2012 we had a 5 seed after going 27-5. That aligns fairly well with JH4P. Without doing any additional research, I agree with JH4P on his seedings.

[shockerfanmas]

You seem very down on the Shocker's chances at a good seed. There is no way whatsoever that WSU gets a 3 seed if they run the table from here on out. They would be a 2 seed at worst, and I would still hold out hope that a 1 seed would be possible at 31-2 and riding a 21 game winning streak.

Also, you think a 4 loss Wichita State team could fall as far as a 7 seed? No way Jose!

Not that I'm down, it's just I know how the selection committee likes to screw non-P5 teams. I hope that I'm wrong, I really do. I think the Shox deserve at least a 2 seed if they run the table the rest of the way, I just am going off the obvious bias the committee has against non P5 teams. Just my opinion, but you're the expert, not me.

[Rlh04d]

Back in 2012 we had a 5 seed after going 27-5. That aligns fairly well with JH4P. Without doing any additional research, I agree with JH4P on his seedings.

That's actually better than his prediction, since we didn't make the title game that year ;)

That 2011/12 team is an interesting comparison, too:

	WSU 11/12	WSU 14/15
vs D1	26-5	28-4
SOS	62	84
NonconSOS	16	10
RPI	15	12
vs top 25	1-1	3-2
vs top 50	2-3	5-3
vs top 100	6-3	11-4

Slightly better SOS that year, but a four loss team this year looks significantly superior to that team on paper.

Needless to say, UNI remaining a top 25 team would be very helpful. We need them, Seton Hall, Tulsa, and Alabama to close well. And if Illinois State, Evansville, Loyola, and Memphis do the same, we'll have a very solid resume.

As a two loss team, we could have up to 13 top 100 wins. That's pretty damn phenomenal out of the Valley. And very likely a one/two seed.

[jdshock]

You seem very down on the Shocker's chances at a good seed. There is no way whatsoever that WSU gets a 3 seed if they run the table from here on out. They would be a 2 seed at worst, and I would still hold out hope that a 1 seed would be possible at 31-2 and riding a 21 game winning streak.

I think if we won out and won the MVC tournament that a 1 seed is almost more likely than not. Last year the entire impetus was on us. We controlled our own destiny. This year, winning out won't be good enough in and of itself to get a 1 seed. It will also require some of the teams in front of us to lose. I think that's going to happen.

Unfortunately, it just isn't that likely that we win out. It also wasn't at all likely to go undefeated last year.... so, who knows.

What I do feel pretty confident about is that you're right: a 30-3 WSU team does not fall to "anywhere from a 4 to a 7 seed"...

[DUShock]

Pure speculation and assuming the Shocks don't tank (dropping 0-2 more games) but @jamarhoward4president do you see the Selection Committee making amends for last season's match up and giving WSU a break?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I do not subscribe to the theory that WSU was given a "purposefully hard road" or a "purposefully stacked bracket" last year. So no, I do not expect the committee would "make amends" this year and give WSU "a break".

[shockmonster]

I do not subscribe to the theory that WSU was given a "purposefully hard road" or a "purposefully stacked bracket" last year. So no, I do not expect the committee would "make amends" this year and give WSU "a break".

Unprovable. Less of a possibility to happen than jerry tark's (probably true) comment regarding "when UK broke ncaa rules, they wanted to send a message so they punished Cleveland St."

By the way to be clear, I don't think that they actually punished Cleveland St but I do believe that in the past, the big boys have been protected at times.

[WSUwatcher]

I agree about not making amends this year, but the stacked bracket thing still sticks with me a bit. Yes supposedly the teams are seeded without names, records and other stats only, but ours kind of stood out. Pretty easy to tell what name was under the card.

I do think the Shocks were given the "bracket of death" treatment last year, and I doubt that it was a coincidence. After the brackets were complete, the selection committee had a chance to look back before making any announcements and see if one was disproportionately hard, and it's hard to imagine they didn't see what they had done. They could easily have said, "Hey -- wait a second. Let's rethink this," and they didn't.

But the exact same thing happened to Kentucky, quite likely also not by coincidence given the preseason hype they'd received, and they managed to get through it.