2015 Bracketology

[jdshock]

We dropped again? I guess that makes sense since we've suffered losses since the last one came out and no other team ranked between 8-25 did.

wait...

[Kel Varnsen]

First off, it's not terribly difficult to project if a team is "out" or "in" as things stand now. It's a lot more difficult to project into the future what things will look like on Selection Sunday.

Secondly, I guess he's got to deliver content somehow. It's like mock drafts by Mel Kiper. Nothing changes, but they've got to change something to generate clicks from the masses.

[Shock Therapy]

Hahahaha, he moved Iowa state up a line after they just lost to Baylor. They beat West Virginia over the weekend but still, how does going 1-1 in a week bump you up a line. Gary Parish is demonstrating some similar insanity with daily rankings as well. It's getting to the point where I can't take any of them seriously.

[ShockerPhi]

Butler as a 5 is what has me scratching my head.

[Shocktoberfest]

Butler as a 5 is what has me scratching my head.

This whole thing makes me prickly. I know it doesn't mean anything except it's a look into the minds of those who think they know. We are 15-2 with 5 straight wins, undefeated in conference play and having lost last on Christmas day yet we fall. That combined with Butler also being a 5 is a total joke. Our brand is much better than it used to be, but we still don't get the benefit of the doubt in this case. Whatever. Luckily we get to play the games.

[Jhook89]

Well I just realized the South bracket plays the 3rd and 4th round in HOUSTON about 10 miles from my house :-)

[shocks771]

In all honesty I believe the best that this team can hope for this year is to end up as a 3-seed. The only way we get above that is if we do something like last year and run the table the rest of the way. In reality we will likely drop 2-3 games between now and the post-season and doing that would likely result in us winding up in the 4-6 seed range. Other than UNI we just don't have any shots at quality wins which would hop us up seed lines.

[WSUwatcher]

This whole thing makes me prickly. I know it doesn't mean anything except it's a look into the minds of those who think they know. We are 15-2 with 5 straight wins, undefeated in conference play and having lost last on Christmas day yet we fall. That combined with Butler also being a 5 is a total joke. Our brand is much better than it used to be, but we still don't get the benefit of the doubt in this case. Whatever. Luckily we get to play the games.

Relax, Shocktoberfest, and crack open one of the beverages your name evokes.

a) As you noted, none of this has any real meaning or significance; it's just what's required from someone who's paid to fill bandwidth now and then. But he doesn't get to pick the teams.

b) Even WSU's "fall" may involve less than meets the eye. I thought someone posted Lunardi's full list of seeds from last time, and although I could be remembering incorrectly, I believe WSU was #16 (thus, the lowest #4 seed). All moving to a #5 seed means is that they're now somewhere between #17 and #20 overall -- not a big change, especially considering that it can just as easily be the result of someone moving up and surpassing WSU in the overall rankings as WSU losing ground on its own (and, of course, the mere act of playing SIU is going to have some cost; that's just life in the Valley and a reminder of how important it is to avoid bad losses).

c) If this is what Lunardi has to offer, maybe it would be good if he DID have some input into the selections. Green Bay is one of those potentially scary #12 teams, but neither of the Iowa schools is all that frightening, and Villanova would be a fine #1 to face is that's the way it works out. I'd almost be more concerned about GW ending up as the winner of the 1-16 / 8-9 group, although hopefully by March the Shocks will be over their Hawaii jet lag, stronger inside, and more crisp with their passes at the top of the zone.

[AZ Shocker]

The other 5 seeds he's got us ranked (compared) with:

#21 Seton Hall 13-4 / RPI = 19 / Top-50 Record = 3-4 SOS = 50 Bad Losses = None
#18 Oklahoma 11-5 / RPI = 33 / Top-50 Record = 4-2 SOS = 27 Bad Losses = Creighton/Kansas St.
#UR Butler 13-5 / RPI = 15 / Top-50 Record = 5-4 SOS = 11 Bad Losses = None
#13 Wichita St. 14-2 / RPI = 12 / Top-50 Record = 3-2 SOS = 56 Bad Losses = None

Big-12 waaaaaay overrated IMO.

[AZ Shocker]

The other 5 seeds he's got us ranked (compared) with:

#21 Seton Hall 13-4 / RPI = 19 / Top-50 Record = 3-4 SOS = 50 / Bad Losses = None
#18 Oklahoma 11-5 / RPI = 33 / Top-50 Record = 4-2 SOS = 27 / Bad Losses = Creighton/Kansas St.
#UR Butler 13-5 / RPI = 15 / Top-50 Record = 5-4 SOS = 11 / Bad Losses = None
#13 Wichita St. 14-2 / RPI = 12 / Top-50 Record = 3-2 SOS = 56 / Bad Losses = None

Big-12 waaaaaay overrated IMO.

[Jhook89]

His last bracket had us as the 16th team (last 4 seed). We are now 17th (first 5 seed). In reality we didn't really move much in his projections. Plus, 4 and 5 seed are essentially the same. They play each other In the next round, so who cares If WSU has the 4 or 5 next to its name. Our BPI (which I'm not sure why they haven't done away with the RPI and use the BPI) is 17th. I think that is pretty fair with the way we have played all year.

[Art Bunch]

BPI is espn's own creation. It has no relevance to or influence on the tournament selection committee. At least in theory. It's fun to look at though and I'm sure some of the math nerds here know it frontways and back.

The RPI on espn is their assumption of what the rpi that the ncaa uses would look like. But if some little commies in N. Korea that haven't eaten in a month can figure out how to get into Sony Pictures computer system I think I'm safe to assume there's less security around the NCAA's rpi formula, so what we see from espn is likely to be accurate.

[DUShock]

In all honesty I believe the best that this team can hope for this year is to end up as a 3-seed. The only way we get above that is if we do something like last year and run the table the rest of the way. In reality we will likely drop 2-3 games between now and the post-season and doing that would likely result in us winding up in the 4-6 seed range. Other than UNI we just don't have any shots at quality wins which would hop us up seed lines.

I agree, the best outcome for the Valley is for UNI and WSU to win out with WSU sweeping UNI in the regular season and defeating UNI in the tourney finals. I know there are other "best for the Valley" scenarios but I am going with this one. ;)

[WSUwatcher]

His last bracket had us as the 16th team (last 4 seed). We are now 17th (first 5 seed).

Thanks, Jhook -- I wondered if that might be the case. The move from a 4th seed to 5th looks bigger than the move from 16th overall to 17th.

[wu_shizzle]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

New bracket from Lunardi.

Can we go ahead and lock this bracket in?

No one in this South region scares me.