WSU VERSUS NEW MEXICO STATE PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[ShockTalk]

This game has some interesting matchups.

1. On the wing, there should be a very strong battle between our combo of Ron and Tekele vs NMSU's Eldridge and Mullings. Here is a quick statistical breakdown on those pairs from last year:

	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	FG%	3FG%	FT%
Baker & Cotton	60	23.4	7.8	5.6	2.8	45.4%	37.6%	77.6%
Mullings & Eldridge	61.1	28	9.4	5.5	2.5	46.7%	35.3%	70%

Obviously a major difference when looking at these statistics is that last year Mullings and Eldridge were NMSU's #1 and #2 scorers, while Baker and Cotton were WSU's #2 and #4 scorers. Nonetheless, a tight matchup in many ways.

One area where WSU might have an edge in this matchup is size. Not only do Baker and Cotton measure 6'4" and 6'3" to Mullings and Eldridge's both being 6'2", but they far out-bulk them. Baker at 220 and Cotton at 205 are carrying a lot more muscle than Mullings at 170 and Eldridge at 180. Whichever one draws the matchup with Baker, I'd expect to see Baker post them up since he will have 2" and either 40 or 50 pounds on his defender.

2. Point guard should be a decided edge to WSU. Obviously Fred comes in as a pre-season All-American, while NMSU will likely be starting Ian Baker, a sophomore who saw limited playing time as a freshman or Travon Landry, another sophomore. This is a matchup Fred should dominate and that is important because:

3. In the post, NMSU poses a serious challenge to our young rotation. They would pose an even bigger one were it not for missing multiple bigs to injury. In spite of this, Barry and Nephawe (assuming the injury he is playing through doesn't slow him too much) will be a handful. Last year Nephawe scored 11.1 points per game with 7.8 rebound per game while shooting 54% from the floor. Most importantly, at 6'10" 268 pounds, he is a tough matchup for just about anyone. NMSU should have an edge in the post, but not nearly as big of one as if all their post players were healthy.

If we assume that the wings will be a wash (which they may or may not be, since I think Ron is set to breakout into his role as go to guy on this team), I think WSU simply has a bigger advantage at point than NMSU has in the post and that will decide the game, but the margins are tight because this is one of the few games where we don't have an overwhelming advantage on the wing in addition to questions about how our young posts play against good teams.

To be fair when comparing stats, I think it's important to consider SOS and the impact that can have. WSU, pre-Dance, finished with a SOS in the mid 90s, NMSU was in the mid 180s. WSU went undefeated through their schedule, NMSU lost 9 games. While the rest of the Valley was down last year, it still was 11th ranked. The WAC was #21 and NMSU lost 4 games and finished 2nd.

We did lose our #1 scorer and much of our front line. However, while NMSU returns their top 3 scorers, they did lose the next 4 scorers who totaled almost 100 minutes a game. WSU 4 seniors played just over 70 minutes per game. NMSU did split with New Mexico and played several other good teams close, but I'm not sure who you would consider their next best win and they did lose to Drake, Idaho, Chicago St., and UMKC.

I still expect a very competitive game.

[The Mad Hatter]

To be fair when comparing stats, I think it's important to consider SOS and the impact that can have. WSU, pre-Dance, finished with a SOS in the mid 90s, NMSU was in the mid 180s. WSU went undefeated through their schedule, NMSU lost 9 games. While the rest of the Valley was down last year, it still was 11th ranked. The WAC was #21 and NMSU lost 4 games and finished 2nd.

We did lose our #1 scorer and much of our front line. However, while NMSU returns their top 3 scorers, they did lose the next 4 scorers who totaled almost 100 minutes a game. WSU 4 seniors played just over 70 minutes per game. NMSU did split with New Mexico and played several other good teams close, but I'm not sure who you would consider their next best win and they did lose to Drake, Idaho, Chicago St., and UMKC.

I still expect a very competitive game.

All very true about the SOS and stats. Last year is hard to figure in some ways for NMSU given some impressive wins or near wins (SDSU in overtime in the NCAAs), but also some headscratching losses (although I should point out that they actually beat Drake). SOS aside, Mullings is clearly legit. He had 18 against Arizona, 16 against New Mexico twice, 18 against San Diego State, etc. I think Ron wins this match-up, but not necessarily by a huge margin. I think that Cotton is probably better than Eldridge by a wider margin than the stats would suggest due to the SOS issues you note. NMSU is the type of program that isn't quite talented or consistent enough to be elite, but is talented enough to beat an elite team any given night. Hopefully we can do to them what Arizona did last year, but I'm happy with a win of any margin.

[NMSUPistolPete]

To be fair when comparing stats, I think it's important to consider SOS and the impact that can have. WSU, pre-Dance, finished with a SOS in the mid 90s, NMSU was in the mid 180s. WSU went undefeated through their schedule, NMSU lost 9 games. While the rest of the Valley was down last year, it still was 11th ranked. The WAC was #21 and NMSU lost 4 games and finished 2nd.

We did lose our #1 scorer and much of our front line. However, while NMSU returns their top 3 scorers, they did lose the next 4 scorers who totaled almost 100 minutes a game. WSU 4 seniors played just over 70 minutes per game. NMSU did split with New Mexico and played several other good teams close, but I'm not sure who you would consider their next best win and they did lose to Drake, Idaho, Chicago St., and UMKC.

I still expect a very competitive game.

Actually, NMSU beat Drake by 12 in Des Moines. And yes, NMSU split with UNM but both split games in each others arenas. I'm not sure if any of you guys have been to the Pit or seen a UNM game on TV? They have one of the most intimidating crowds in the country; averaging over 15,000 per game. UNM beat teams like Cincinnati, Marquette, and San Diego State in the Pit last year. So, NMSU does have the ability to beat a good team on their floor. However, admittedly when it comes the UNM/NMSU rivalry anything is possible. If NMSU takes a similar approach to the Wichita State game as they do for a UNM game, the Shockers are in for a major dog fight.

The big knock on NMSU last season (by Aggie fans) was a lack of veteran leadership. Last year's team never really played up to their potential. They were a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type team. They would get up for most big games that they "knew" they were going to be in for a battle. But they would sleepwalk through games they were expected to win; playing to the level of their competition. Also, during a portion of last season, NMSU lost the services of our 7' 5" center Sim Bhullar (foot injury); which most of our offense was designed around. Which "kind of" explains the Chicago State and UM Kansas City losses. However, Aggie fans were still upset with those two losses and felt they should have won despite Bhullar's absense. Last year, NMSU was considered as the top team in the conference (like Wichita State in the MVC) and they had a target on their back all season. The Aggies just didn't handle getting everyone's best game night after night as well as Wichita State did last year. Hence, the knock on NMSU's lack of veteran leadership.

This season, with four seniors returning (three of them starters), Aggie fans are hopeful that the leadership will be much better. Last year, NMSU only had two seniors. Both were bench players so underclassmen were running the show. These Aggies should now know (from experience now) that "everyone" is gunning for them every time they step on the court; even the teams they "should" beat like Chicago State, UMKC, and Idaho. Also, NMSU has changed their offense back to a Louisville styled system (much faster). Coach Menzies is a Rick Pitino disciple. NMSU used to run a much faster more athletic system but when Sim Bhullar arrived at NMSU, Menzies slowed down the team's offense and defense in order to keep Sim Bhullar's 7' 5' frame on the court. So, other than game planning against individual Aggie players, Coach Marshall will probably need to dissect Aggie game film from three years ago in order to become familiar with Menzies true style of play.

Although I'm disappointed NMSU's big men are a little banged up and Wichita State fans "might" not get to see our Aggies in full effect, I'm excited about the season in general. The winner and loser of this game will still potentially have a great season. I will be keeping track of Wichita State's progress all season as I hope you guys will be keeping track of ours. I can almost guarantee that NMSU will be a much stronger team come March (barring injuries) than the one you will see tonight. Good luck and stay healthy!

[wufan]

It's great when such classy fans visit our board! Good luck the rest of the way!!

[Dan]

Wessel's gonna have his hands full on defense. It will be interesting to see how we handle those big guys. We'll have to run them ragged and try to get them into foul trouble.

[Onegreatracer]

TODAY IS SHOCKER BBALL!!!!!!

[pinstripers]

What time do the doors open today?

[jcdshocker]

Doors open after the Volleyball game. The game may start late depending on our long VB lasts.

[DUShock]

Doors open after the Volleyball game. The game may start late depending on our long VB lasts.

You get in free to the VB game with a Men's ticket but have to clear the arena before the NMSU game.

Go Shocks!

[Onegreatracer]

You get in free to the VB game with a Men's ticket but have to clear the arena before the NMSU game.

Go Shocks!

Would this work with printed tix off StubHub in Print@Home format?

[DUShock]

@Onegreatracer: I honestly do not know, sorry. You might call 978-FANS (3267)

[Dave Stalwart]

Where do I stand in line and who do I pay in order to get to see Wessel try to guard Bhullar for a possession or two?

[1972Shocker]

Would this work with printed tix off StubHub in Print@Home format?

Should but you might call the ticket office just to confirm. 978-FANS. You need to present your Men's BB ticket at the ticket window to get your ticket to enter the VB match.

[Cdizzle]

WSU last lost a non-conference home game in the 2010-2011 season, on a very questionable call against VCU to boot. It is getting difficult to keep up with all these streaks and whatnot, but it is fun to try to keep up with them all anyway.

[Dan]

Game is on ESPN3 for anyone out of town who accidentally wastes time trying to watch it on Shocker Vision.