No one goes undefeated

[Signman]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/wichita_states_life_expectancy

Interesting comments by Ken Pomeroy on the subject of WSU going undefeated.

[Play Angry]

Memphis went undefeated in Conference USA in 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. Below is CUSA's Conference RPI rank in each of those seasons:

2006-07: 11th (average .5097)
2007-08: 10th (average .5164)
2008-09: 10th (average .5207)

2013-14 MVC: 11th (average .5139)


The MVC is every bit as bad or worse this year than CUSA was during Calipari's reign of terror, and Memphis went three entire seasons without losing a conference game.



I would not bet against us running the table. Also, barring catastrophic injury, we absolutely will not drop more than 2 games in the MVC regular season. The chasm between us and the rest of the conference is measured in light years, not miles. We are roughly 3 solar systems ahead of the next best team.

[SHOXAAC]

I'm not afraid of success. I just understand the grind of the season and the fact that every team will be Super Bowling it up against us. Again, like I said, I hope it's on the lower end of the 2-4 scale and am halfway expecting it that way.

Is it that unreasonable to see the team stub their toes at an Indiana State, Missouri State, and Northern Iowa, and then have one of those "Evansville type" games? I certainly hope it won't be that bad but it wouldn't surprise me given the unpredictability of college basketball... especially on the road.

I am not afraid of success either, but you respectfully criticized me a couple of weeks ago for that very reason when I was concerned at the overwhelming pressure of being undefeated going into the dance. I am no different than you in this respect...we are realists.

On one hand I root as hard as anyone for a Shocker victory on a game by game basis, however on the other hand having the national media harp on our less than stellar schedule as the reason we would be undefeated would create national attention for the wrong reasons IMO.

[jdshock]

I am not afraid of success either, but you respectfully criticized me a couple of weeks ago for that very reason when I was concerned at the overwhelming pressure of being undefeated going into the dance. I am no different than you in this respect...we are realists.

On one hand I root as hard as anyone for a Shocker victory on a game by game basis, however on the other hand having the national media harp on our less than stellar schedule as the reason we would be undefeated would create national attention for the wrong reasons IMO.

You'd rather the national media talk about the losses to our less than stellar schedule?

[Kung Wu]

I am going to have to respectfully remain undecided about being noncommittal concerning not endorsing the antagonist's position in this debate. Or maybe not.

[ShockerFever]

I am not afraid of success either, but you respectfully criticized me a couple of weeks ago for that very reason when I was concerned at the overwhelming pressure of being undefeated going into the dance. I am no different than you in this respect...we are realists.

On one hand I root as hard as anyone for a Shocker victory on a game by game basis, however on the other hand having the national media harp on our less than stellar schedule as the reason we would be undefeated would create national attention for the wrong reasons IMO.

There's a big difference between your thoughts and mine. I simply am saying it's hard to go through a season unbeaten. We will likely drop a couple. But the difference is that I, in no way, shape, or form, want to lose. As opposed to your belief that you're hoping for a loss to "dial off the pressure of being undefeated". Those are completely opposite feelings. I want us to go 18-0 in the Valley, go 31-0 in the regular season, go 40-0, etc.

[1972Shocker]

I am going to have to respectfully remain undecided about being noncommittal concerning not endorsing the antagonist's position in this debate. Or maybe not.

What was the question again.

[Ricardo del Rio]

Bad Referees
Clock operators from STL

Unexplained random events

[SHOXAAC]

There's a big difference between your thoughts and mine. I simply am saying it's hard to go through a season unbeaten. We will likely drop a couple. But the difference is that I, in no way, shape, or form, want to lose. As opposed to your belief that you're hoping for a loss to "dial off the pressure of being undefeated". Those are completely opposite feelings. I want us to go 18-0 in the Valley, go 31-0 in the regular season, go 40-0, etc.

Then we will see. I think I am one of the few that are realistic about what being undefeated going into the dance will actually look, sound, feel and taste like in the big picture.

[The Mad Hatter]

Here are RPI Forecast's probabilities on WSU's record (based on 10,000 simulations):

Record	Probability
30-0	7.49%
29-1	21.79%
28-2	28.31%
27-3	22.97%
26-4	12.95%
25-5	4.87%
24-6	1.25%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita%20St..html

Two losses is the most likely outcome at this point and four losses is not that much more probable than going undefeated. Over an 80% chance of three or fewer losses, so I would say that if projecting being undefeated is over-optimistic, then projecting four losses is being over-pessimistic. Either zero or four losses are possible, but between one and three looks to be the most realistic at this point.

[ShockerFever]

Then we will see. I think I am one of the few that are realistic about what being undefeated going into the dance will actually look, sound, feel and taste like in the big picture.

So again, you want WSU to lose? Got it.

[The Mad Hatter]

Then we will see. I think I am one of the few that are realistic about what being undefeated going into the dance will actually look, sound, feel and taste like in the big picture.

I put this in another thread, but the NCAA tournament success rate of teams that went undefeated in the regular season is actually very high.

There have been 17 teams to enter the NCAAs with an undefeated record since 1951. Here is the breakdown of how they did:

National Champions - 7
National Runner Up - 2
Lost in Final Four - 3
Lost in Elite Eight - 2
Lost in Sweet Sixteen - 2
Lost in Round of 32 - 0
Lost in First Round - 1 (Columbia in 1951)

9 of 17 the championship game. 12 of 17 made the Final Four. 14 of 17 made the Elite Eight. 16 of 17 made the Sweet 16.

[chitown_shocker]

So again, you want WSU to lose? Got it.

I'm with you. Only a loser would rather lose one game than win it all. Winners relish the chance to thrive under pressure and to reach heights that seem impossible.

Is it likely that the shocks go undefeated? No, but that is what makes the challenge exciting.

Losers accept losing, winners want to win every game. Maybe some people on this board couldn't handle the stress and pressure and I thank the good lord they don't play for WSU.

[ABC]

This is ridiculous banter. Including mine.

[SHOXAAC]

So again, you want WSU to lose? Got it.

No, you actually don't get it but that's ok.