No one goes undefeated

[Capitol Shock II]

Okay....one step at a time. Let's bring it against Davidson tomorrow!

[Hurley]

My prediction - we lose a game at some point soon. A long list of fans jump on this board and cry about the sky falling and "what's wrong with Player X?" In fandom, your team is only as good as it's last game.

[MadaboutWu]

Bad luck
Injury
Shallow bench
Worry

Foul trouble

[SB Shock]

Foul trouble

Bad Referees
Clock operators from STL

[shockingwheat]

Injury is a huge threat in my mind. In the NBA three stars (Kobe, Rose, Westbrook) have suffered significant injuries for two years in a row... and their teams have suffered because of it (last season and now this season). We have to avoid injuries given our lack of depth beyond a core group.

As a sidebar, I like that our starters are getting 30 plus minutes per game. I have wondered with our past teams - with the depth we had on them - if some players could get into the flow of a game if they were playing 20 minutes or so. We will have to see how more minutes per game helps the nucleus group of players by the time tourneys roll around.

[MadaboutWu]

The Alabama game illustrates why it is so tough to go undefeated. They would be somewhere between 3-6 in the mvc this year. Play the last 5-10 minutes of that game 100 times we probably win 65%. Play the whole game 100 times it is maybe 80%, maybe slightly better. Outside Loyola, SIU, and Bradley, it is hard to pencil in any road game as a gimme. Taking all 9 plus the 10 remaining at home is probably at least the 13-1 shot against Pomeroy is stating. I would handicap it more like 19-1 against.

[1972Shocker]

I'm going to be the idiot on this subject. Shox are going to be favored in every Valley game. I believe this Shox team is better able to maintain some consistency than previous teams (with great talent) who lost some games that were real head scratchers.

To make this post worse, I'm going to rag on a couple of players from last year. In the games WSU lost in league play, some of the in-game comments went in the direction of "Why are Williams and Armstead playing like they are Fr instead of Sr's".

WSU lost some games last year that were BBIQ based. Fans repeatedly posted, "Where is this teams BBIQ?". The answer was "It's on the bench with Baker and Wessel".

FVV and Baker have BBIQ that appears to be off the charts. They have skills and abilities to execute what they see from that BBIQ. The entire team seems to have an attitude of "You cannot win". Early's only real consistency has been when the game was on the line. Carter is looking to prove something. Lufile is fighting for PT. Wessel and Wiggins are looking to get their stroke back to get more PT.

Then there's VanVleet and Baker and their competitive and winning attitude.

I don't see this group of Shox having 3 or 4 players taking a night off. I don't see Early lolly-gagging and waiting for someone else to come through at crunch time. I see Carter striving to join that group as one of the "we win them all" group.

The Shox aren't just a talented basketball team. They've got some great BBIQ (they also have some bad BBIQ that I won't attach to a specific player - you can see it). The Shox are "winners".

I'm actually expecting the Shox to be undefeated going into St. Louis. I realize that's a lofty expectation. I won't be disappointed if I'm wrong. Things happen, but this team has the talent, brains, makeup, and attitude to hit the NCAA's without a loss.

That would be a true test of a team handling pressure. You only think they have a target on their backs now. If they hit the NCAA's as an undefeated 2 or 3 seed, the pressure would be insane.

Nice post @Aargh: but I'm not sure about how you can talk about the Shocks are "winners" and make no mention of perhaps the toughest winner on the team and that is Tekele Cotton. I will chalk it up to a brain cramp. You and I often get those at our age.

[1972Shocker]

Duplicate post deleted.

[Rosewood]

Anything can happen. I also wouldn't wager my own money on a perfect season. However, it is fun to dream and this team and coaching staff has everything it would take to do it.

Realistically I know valley play is brutal. Everyone in the valley knows HCGM's style. Evansville for whatever reason is a bad matchup.

[shocksrbest]

Anything can happen. I also wouldn't wager my own money on a perfect season. However, it is fun to dream and this team and coaching staff has everything it would take to do it.

Realistically I know valley play is brutal. Everyone in the valley knows HCGM's style. Evansville for whatever reason is a bad matchup.

We need tear-away jerseys for Valley play...especially Evansville.

[Rosewood]

Duplicate post deleted.

Speaking of old age problems...

[wufan]

Going undefeated in college basketball is next to impossible, no matter the opponents or conference affiliation. I don't even believe the greatest program of all time, Kansas, would go unbeaten through the Valley slate, see TCU 2013.

I'll say 2-4 losses, hopefully on the lower end of this scale. We'll have a couple of bad nights; our opponents will mostly get up to playing us. The right combo will create a couple of L's. An L, notably on the road, to an Indiana State or Missouri State wouldn't damage the resume too severely. Anything else would probably drop us a seed line in the NCAA's.

It's the nature of the beast. We will lose to a good team that plays particularly well at home this year. The question is how do we respond? I'd really like to get past Davidson tomorrow. As each game approaches, the opponent always looks significantly better than in did two weeks ago. Lots of good teams out there looking to knock off a top 10.

[ShockerKhan]

It will be interesting to see how far the Shox drop in the rankings if and when they lose a game or God forbid 2.
That will indicate the level of national perception and respect.

[Kung Wu]

For you number munchers out there…

With 22 regular season games left before St. Louis, consider the following:

Chance WSU reaches 30-0 assuming a 95% to win each time out – 32%
Chance WSU reaches 30-0 assuming a 90% chance to win each time out – 10%
Chance WSU reaches 30-0 assuming an 85% chance to win each time out – 3%
Chance WSU reaches 30-0 assuming an 80% chance to win each time out – less than 1%

Obviously some games will be harder than others, but these “average chance to win” scenarios help give a rough idea of the likelihood of an undefeated run through the regular season.

This methodology is terrible but in continuance...

Chances of Shoxers going undefeated with 95% chance of winning each game -- now nearly 40% (39.7%)
Chances of Shoxers going undefeated with 80% chance of winning each game -- now nearly 2% (1.8%)

[ShockTalk]

Injury is a huge threat in my mind. In the NBA three stars (Kobe, Rose, Westbrook) have suffered significant injuries for two years in a row... and their teams have suffered because of it (last season and now this season). We have to avoid injuries given our lack of depth beyond a core group.

As a sidebar, I like that our starters are getting 30 plus minutes per game. I have wondered with our past teams - with the depth we had on them - if some players could get into the flow of a game if they were playing 20 minutes or so. We will have to see how more minutes per game helps the nucleus group of players by the time tourneys roll around.

We have 1 player, FVV, over 30+ mpg (32.3). Yes, three others are close, 27.5-29.3, but we have avoided the large number of minutes some were concerned about. These numbers might go down in Valley play.

The Alabama game illustrates why it is so tough to go undefeated. They would be somewhere between 3-6 in the mvc this year. Play the last 5-10 minutes of that game 100 times we probably win 65%. Play the whole game 100 times it is maybe 80%, maybe slightly better. Outside Loyola, SIU, and Bradley, it is hard to pencil in any road game as a gimme. Taking all 9 plus the 10 remaining at home is probably at least the 13-1 shot against Pomeroy is stating. I would handicap it more like 19-1 against.

Alabama 6th in the Valley? They are basically tied with IN St in RPI and, yes, MSU and Drake are close behind, but 6th is a little harsh.