Myth Busting With Facts

[Ricky Del Rio]

From 789

Ricky, how about an analysis on the scoring, rebounding, etc. of the players left over after the Fogler to Cohen, Cohen to Thompson, Thompson to Smithson, Smithson to Turgeon, and Turgeon to Marshall coaching changes. I will be interested to see if the numbers match your theory.

While this chart many not be definitive in learning which coach left the least in the cupboard, it does make clear that Coaches Fogler and Turgeon are not candidates for the honor.

If Joe Griffin had returned for his senior season, then Coaches Fogler and Turgeon would have tied for the honor of leaving the most filled cupboard, based upon my rudimentary analysis.

[ShockerFever]

Interesting stuff RDR. Thanks for posting.

I think KC Hunt being given a 3 was awfully generous.. :D

[rrshock]

I would argue that Michael Phillips was better than a zero. Maybe not a 3, but at least a 1 or a 2. That kid played hard all the time.

What about maybe taking the total ratings then averaging them out by players left? Turgeon left 2 more than anyone else and arguable 3 because Ogirri was still on the team when Marshall got here.

With the current numbers divided by total players:
Fogler would have a 2.57
Cohen would have a 1.43
Thompson a 2.67
Smithson a 1.88
Turgeon would have 2.56

So most would agree that Cohen left the cupboard pretty bare, no matter how you do it. Turgeon's numbers are inflated based on sheer number of bodies left. Thompsom, by the averages, left the best class, even though he only left 6.

[7hottamales]

There has to be a way to differentiate a freshman Perez who was MVP four years in a row by more than a point over LJ Goolsby or Keith Bonds. In fact, one could easily argue that having an incoming ready made impact player like Perez was more valuable to a new coach than just about any combination of 2 or 3 others (along with scholarships available to fill).

[7hottamales]

Good work by the way. Interesting to look at.

[7hottamales]

Any chance that recency is helping Turgeon's player out a bit?

For example, I wonder if when we look back on it 10 years from now, a senior walk on that may play a total of 15 games and score 20-30 points in his career would get a 2? Or if when looking back on other certain players career contributions, he would be considered as a positive contribution left behind or a negative drain of a scholarship.

Noticing that we are rating 8 guys in this transition and only 4 or 5 in all of the previous ones tends to make me conclude that recency is a factor.

[shockball]

This is very enjoyable.

[NCAABound]

There has to be a way to differentiate a freshman Perez who was MVP four years in a row by more than a point over LJ Goolsby or Keith Bonds. In fact, one could easily argue that having an incoming ready made impact player like Perez was more valuable to a new coach than just about any combination of 2 or 3 others (along with scholarships available to fill).

I agree. Maybe the scale should be out of 10 or 100?

[RoyalShock]

Very interesting analysis, RDR.

I only remember the last two transitions well enough to comment.

Here are the players I would rate differently. My criteria is a little different as I would only give a 5 to a player that can carry a team.

Smithson to Turgeon
Benton: 4
Mack: 4
Phillips: 2

Turgeon to Marshall
Cooz: 4
Durley: 3
Harris: 1


I had totally forgotten about Josh Drumgole. He was thought to be one of Smithson's better recruits, having high upside. IIRC, he was a bust.

[boyshocker]

Fun to read, but I would have to agree to disagree on the rankings. One that sticks out to me is Claudius Johnson only a three and JT Durley a 4 already. Oh well, thanks for the fun.

[7hottamales]

Another question is - are we rating for the immediate year of turnover or the player's career? That could change the rating for a guy like Durley or Mekel or some of the older guys that looked to be better a few months into the transition than what ended up coming to fruition.


I definitely agree with Durley being a 3 at best for now until he shows the ability to focus long enough to not cost you games. That blown block out on Watts was every bit as egregious as Gal's charge...just one example.

[wushock]

My disagreements with your list are Bonds a 3, Hunt a 1, Goolsby a 2, Benton a 4, Mack 4, Robinson 2 and Durley 3

[ShockRef]

Ricky scares me with all of his research and facts. Period. 8)

[Smooth007]

What were the records of each team in the first year after the coaching change?

[vbird53]

Great job.


Question:


Darin Miller = Phil Thomasson?

As was stated earlier:

Claudius Johnson 3, JT Durley 4?


No offense to Matt Braeuer, but I'm not sure we could give him a 4 for an incomplete season. He's one of my favorites of the last few years, but he hasn't earned a 4 for this year (through no fault of his own)

How do you quantify an injury?