I'm a Louisville fan, here's our scouting report, ask me anything...

[CBB_Fan]

Yes, very much so. Where the game will be won is in the paint, and where I think we have a distinct advantage. You had to neutralize Olynik with 14 3's. If you hit 14 3's against us, I will gladly come over here and congratulate you afterward, because you will absolutely deserve it. If you can't hit outside shots, you have to challenge Dieng, and my guess is that we're going to run primarily matchup zone to force you to shoot from the outside and to protect him from getting into foul trouble. If we can get into the paint at will as we have all tourney, then it will be a long day for the Shockers, unless you hit 10+ 3's, which is hard to do. We've proven we can win by 20+ points while hitting two 3's all game. If you can force us into jumpers also, then it's anyone's game, and probably a really ugly one.

Honestly, what are going to try and do is get Siva and Smith into foul trouble. They are the guys that make your offense scary, and they are terrific spearheads for your defense. One thing to note: Olynyk scored 26 points on us, but did so shooting only 8-22 from floor (.364 FG%). Similarly, Deshaun Thomas scored 20 points, but only on 8-20 shooting. Basically, we have neutralized important players on the floor but have given them points from the line. Russ Smith is that guy for you, but understand that we didn't neutralize players by just outshooting them.

What I'm trying to say is that our game plan is not going to be beating you from the 3PT line. We will try to use penetration to force your guards to foul and test your depth, and we will see what we can get from Early and Hall. Our guys have some experience against big shot blockers (Hall + Orukpe), but every shot blocker has their own individual tendencies, so we'll see how well we handle Dieng.

Before the tournament, we were not known as a three point shooting team. We tended to shoot a lot of them because we often ran into end-of-possession situations, but we did not knock them down at a high rate. Our role players have stepped up and gotten healthy in the tournament, so we are knocking them down at a higher rate, but at our heart we are a team that wins with defense and rebounding, not shooting. Our biggest wins of the regular season (@VCU, vs Creighton) saw us shoot 3-19 and 4-23.

[SubGod22]

And you don't have to beat a zone with threes. That kind of logic is simply retarded. It's ONE way to do it. But you can still get inside the zone and beat it that way.

It's not rocket surgery.

[Shockeriffic]

It was a mixed bag of both. We also out rebounded the best rebounding (or is it rebounding margin?) team in the country in that game.

For those fans tired of hearing that you have to shoot from long range to win, how exactly do you plan on beating a matchup zone? It's not like Syracuse's zone where the FT line is always wide open, and I guarantee you that when playing in that large of an open environment that we're going to play zone primarily, or until you've proven that you can shoot it out there.

I think Wichita St. has to be able to make Louisville guard them on the three point line. They don't have to shoot 40 or 50 percent to win. Just hit enough from outside that Louisville has to keep closing out on outside shooters and open up the paint a little bit. I don't think the dome will have as big of an impact as you think. Wichita State shoots 34% from three on the year but they've been better since Ron Baker came back. Even accounting for the dome this team could still hit 34%. If they shoot a very low percentage it will probably be more because Louisville's defense is very good and not because they can't shoot with a different background.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_dome_effect_on_three_point_shooting

[malicecooper]

Except for the fact that we do a damn good job of recovering and preventing fast break opportunities to our opponents.

And I'm sick of Card fans telling us we have to hit from outside to beat them. That's bull. We typically don't beat teams because of our outside shooting. Lumping us in with the thinking that all nonBcS schools have to hit from outside to hang with the big boys is so irrititating. We did well against Gonzaga that way, but outside of that, it's been our inside game and attacking the basket that's won games for us.

I also like how they think their D is so superior to everyone else that any comparison made to teams who turn people over is found to be crazy talk.

Some of the posters have been fine, but I'll be happy when this game is over and some of these morons go away. For the most part, they haven't been much, if any, different than Ohio State fans.

Teams who turn other teams over aren't always good defensive teams, they just gamble more than others. Comparing Louisville to VCU defensively is not even close. In Ken Pom, VCU is a 30 spots lower than U of L's in his ranking. If you look up shooting defense, scoring defense, and opponent assist to turn over ratio, VCU PALES in comparison in all of those stats, which are very important. We don't get upset, we are simply pointing out a fact. U of L is statistically in the top 25 for all of those stats I listed (and a couple of them are top 10 I believe). VCU is somewhere between 75-150 or so in most of those stats. Just because they are #1 in steals and forced turn overs doesn't make them a good overall defense. Also note, our fans hold a great deal of pride in our teams defense, because according to Ken Pom numbers, Louisville is not just the #1 rated defense this year, but the best defense he has tracked in his 10 years of statistical analysis. That's pretty good.

Also, the notion that U of L fans say you have to win from outside because you are a non power conference school is a incorrect. We have said that about every team we have faced in the tournament, and it has been fairly accurate in each case. This team is all about dominating the paint defensively and forcing you to shoot from outside. That is our defensive makeup. We deny lanes to the basket, we deny the ball from interior post players, we deny driving lanes to the basket, and we have very good weak side help to crash the basket and defend down low. That IS our defensive game plan, and it has worked against Duke and CSU who are considered the 4th and 7th best offensive teams in the country according to Ken Pom.

This isn't a ploy for us to call you inferior, this isn't us demeaning your team, this is us telling you what the Louisville game plan will be. Our game plan will be to defensively deny the interior in every way possible. We will also force you to shoot over top of us as much as we possibly can. Then our half court offensive game plan will be to attack the rim, score from the paint, get into the body of your players, and force fouls. We won't rely on the 3, we will try to open up driving lanes to the basket, and we will try to force mismatches through switching in your man defense.

If you all can defensively deny the interior against us and force us to shoot from outside, that is the game plan for the Shockers to win. This will be who can defend the paint the best.

[CBB_Fan]

Teams who turn other teams over aren't always good defensive teams, they just gamble more than others. Comparing Louisville to VCU defensively is not even close. In Ken Pom, VCU is a 30 spots lower than U of L's in his ranking. If you look up shooting defense, scoring defense, and opponent assist to turn over ratio, VCU PALES in comparison in all of those stats, which are very important. We don't get upset, we are simply pointing out a fact. U of L is statistically in the top 25 for all of those stats I listed (and a couple of them are top 10 I believe). VCU is somewhere between 75-150 or so in most of those stats. Just because they are #1 in steals and forced turn overs doesn't make them a good overall defense. Also note, our fans hold a great deal of pride in our teams defense, because according to Ken Pom numbers, Louisville is not just the #1 rated defense this year, but the best defense he has tracked in his 10 years of statistical analysis. That's pretty good.

Also, the notion that U of L fans say you have to win from outside because you are a non power conference school is a incorrect. We have said that about every team we have faced in the tournament, and it has been fairly accurate in each case. This team is all about dominating the paint defensively and forcing you to shoot from outside. That is our defensive makeup. We deny lanes to the basket, we deny the ball from interior post players, we deny driving lanes to the basket, and we have very good weak side help to crash the basket and defend down low. That IS our defensive game plan, and it has worked against Duke and CSU who are considered the 4th and 7th best offensive teams in the country according to Ken Pom.

This isn't a ploy for us to call you inferior, this isn't us demeaning your team, this is us telling you what the Louisville game plan will be. Our game plan will be to defensively deny the interior in every way possible. We will also force you to shoot over top of us as much as we possibly can. Then our half court offensive game plan will be to attack the rim, score from the paint, get into the body of your players, and force fouls. We won't rely on the 3, we will try to open up driving lanes to the basket, and we will try to force mismatches through switching in your man defense.

If you all can defensively deny the interior against us and force us to shoot from outside, that is the game plan for the Shockers to win. This will be who can defend the paint the best.

Basically, what you are telling us is that both teams have the same gameplan. Honestly, that is probably true. We take pride in the same things.

[SubGod22]

But we're talking about turnovers. You guys continue to say your pressure is going to turn us over. Well, other teams play to turn us over and we've been very good against those teams in NOT turning it over. That IS A VALID look into how we handle pressure. It doesn't mean you play the same damn way. WHY IS THAT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?

According to you guys, you're the greatest team ever assembled and we shouldn't show up. Hell, according to you guys in all of your infinite wisdom you could win the NBA title this year. I'd bow down before your greatness except I think you're all full of ****.

[deep3card]

Honestly, what are going to try and do is get Siva and Smith into foul trouble. They are the guys that make your offense scary, and they are terrific spearheads for your defense. One thing to note: Olynyk scored 26 points on us, but did so shooting only 8-22 from floor (.364 FG%). Similarly, Deshaun Thomas scored 20 points, but only on 8-20 shooting. Basically, we have neutralized big on the floor but have given them points from the line.

What I'm trying to say is that our game plan is not going to be beating you from the 3PT line. We will try to use penetration to force your guards to foul and test your depth, and we will see what we can get from Early and Hall. Our guys have some experience against big shot blockers (Hall + Orukpe), but every shot blocker has their own individual tendencies, so we'll see how well we handle Dieng.

Before the tournament, we were not known as a three point shooting team. We tended to shoot a lot of them because we often ran into end-of-possession situations, but we did not knock them down at a high rate. Our role players have stepped up and gotten healthy in the tournament, so we are knocking them down at a higher rate, but at our heart we are a team that wins with defense and rebounding, not shooting. Our biggest wins of the regular season (@VCU, vs Creighton) saw us shoot 3-19 and 4-23.

I think that's a solid game plan, but we tend to get ourselves in foul trouble more than the defender causing it. How tight the game is called is almost always our tipping point. Have you faced a matchup zone this season (as the primary defense)? You get inside the zone with solid passing from bigs, as I mentioned. Do that, and you'll be fine. Rely on the outside shot (as it's designed to do), and you'll have to hit better than your average if you're going to have a shot. Additionally, we'll also get beat by good FT shooting teams, because we will foul a lot. Duke was 23-27 when they beat us in the first matchup (without Dieng).

[Cdizzle]

If Louisville intends to play primarily zone defense, do they have a back-up plan to grab rebounds?

[cardinalfan123]

But we're talking about turnovers. You guys continue to say your pressure is going to turn us over. Well, other teams play to turn us over and we've been very good against those teams in NOT turning it over. That IS A VALID look into how we handle pressure. It doesn't mean you play the same damn way. WHY IS THAT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?

According to you guys, you're the greatest team ever assembled and we shouldn't show up. Hell, according to you guys in all of your infinite wisdom you could win the NBA title this year. I'd bow down before your greatness except I think you're all full of ****.

The difference he's trying to explain (I think) is a team like VCU DEPENDS on getting turnovers to win games. When they don't get turnovers they lose (see the Michigan game). We can win games even when we don't force that many turnovers. Duke only had 11 and we only hit 2 3's all game and we still won by 22. Against Notre Dame in the last home game of the season we only forced 10 and won by 12. Even if your team takes care of the ball we'll find other ways to score. Look at the Oregon game for example. We had more turnovers than them and they shot lights out and we had an 18 point lead until they started hitting 3's when the game was winding down and we ended up winning by 8 and they never really threatened us down the stretch.

Nobody's calming Wichita is a bad team by any means and you've have had an impressive run but you guys are talking up like your players like they're the second coming of the Fab Five. I think it'll be a good game and both teams will play well but at this point Louisville is on a mission. I'm not saying you guys shouldn't be optimistic about the game but the pundits and talking heads are expecting Louisville to win for a reason.

[SubGod22]

Yawn.


I think I'm putting ever Loserville fan on ignore for a while. They have to spin everything for themselves and can't seen to engage in what's actually being said.

I miss OSU fans.

[Cdizzle]

The difference he's trying to explain (I think) is a team like VCU DEPENDS on getting turnovers to win games. When they don't get turnovers they lose (see the Michigan game). We can win games even when we don't force that many turnovers. Duke only had 11 and we only hit 2 3's all game and we still won by 22. Against Notre Dame in the last home game of the season we only forced 10 and won by 12. Even if your team takes care of the ball we'll find other ways to score. Look at the Oregon game for example. We had more turnovers than them and they shot lights out and we had an 18 point lead until they started hitting 3's when the game was winding down and we ended up winning by 8 and they never really threatened us down the stretch.

Nobody's calming Wichita is a bad team by any means and you've have had an impressive run but you guys are talking up like your players like they're the second coming of the Fab Five. I think it'll be a good game and both teams will play well but at this point Louisville is on a mission. I'm not saying you guys shouldn't be optimistic about the game but the pundits and talking heads are expecting Louisville to win for a reason.

Are they the same reasons they were expecting Pitt, Gonzaga, and Ohio State to win? I hope so!

Also note: the Fab Five only won one more game than WSU in the tournament. And they cheated. So, I'm pretty sure we're not trying to get the Fab Five thing going on. Not Satisfying.

[CBB_Fan]

I think that's a solid game plan, but we tend to get ourselves in foul trouble more than the defender causing it. How tight the game is called is almost always our tipping point. Have you faced a matchup zone this season (as the primary defense)? You get inside the zone with solid passing from bigs, as I mentioned. Do that, and you'll be fine. Rely on the outside shot (as it's designed to do), and you'll have to hit better than your average if you're going to have a shot. Additionally, we'll also get beat by good FT shooting teams, because we will foul a lot. Duke was 23-27 when they beat us in the first matchup (without Dieng).

I'll address a couple things.

Can our team shoot free throws well? Yes, and no. We broke a school record by shooting 23-24 from the foul line (with the miss occurring with a minute left in regulation). We have a roster with a few guys that are excellent FT shooters. We've also had games shooting under 50%. It is all about who you foul. If you are fouling Cotton, Orukpe, or even Hall on a bad day we probably will shoot a low percentage. But don't be surprised if Early, Armstead, Baker, and Van Vleet shoot 80% between themselves. See the Pitt game for what we can do if we get fouled a lot more than we foul (usually it is the other way around).

Have we faced a matchup zone? I may be wrong, but I believed that Indiana State played a match up zone when they beat us at home. They hadn't ran more than 5 minutes of zone before then, so we were unprepared for it. That was our worst loss, but we'll have time to prepare for this game (and no huge surprises hopefully). I think one other team may have played something similar. Teams have been throwing different zone looks at us most of the season.

Can our big men pass well? Orupke cannot, definitely. Carl Hall is adequate, not great. Jake White pretty good at finding other big men and getting open himself. Early is a score-first player, and doesn't really have great passing skills. Lufile is unproven.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

in all fairness... The talking heads have all said we were going to lose for a reason.
Taking their word from it means dick

[ShockerPrez]

Yawn.


I think I'm putting ever Loserville fan on ignore for a while. They have to spin everything for themselves and can't seen to engage in what's actually being said.

I miss OSU fans.

Too much time in between games. We have split the hairs down to the atomic level.

Once the ball is tipped, we shall see what happens. I personally have no freaking clue how this game goes. Reading the crap from both sides is giving me a headache.

Good Luck Louisville. Awesome team. Has all the tools to hammer us by 20. Excuse us Shocker fans, we've heard that fir 3 weeks. Our skin is a bit raw at this point.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

This thread = message board exageration at its best (coming from both sides)

:-)