WSU versus AIR FORCE predictions and discussions

[jrschh]

All those back cuts can be thwarted by the presence and ability of one Ehimen Orukpe and his buddy Carl Hall with a little assistance from a Cleanthony Early. One of the reasons we can be so aggressive on the perimeter is because we have those guys inside to take care of business.

The thing about the "Princeton" offense is it likes to pull the "bigs" from the other teams out away from the paint. Which, in turn, makes the defense more at risk to the back door cut. It's pretty much what made Princeton offense THE "Princeton Offense" when they pulled Alonso Morning away from the basket and they nearly pulled off the major upset against Georgetown as one of the tourney's #1 seed in 1989.

I'm not saying that we aren't going to win, I'm just pointing out, that if executed correctly, our bigs MIGHT not be in position to make those blocks. However, I hope I am completely wrong.

I personnaly haven't seen USAFA play, so I don't know if they run this type of "set" in their execution of the "Princeton Offense".

[SubGod22]

Unless they run all 5 guys along the perimeter, someone will be around to redirect shots inside. We have three legit shot blockers on this team and the jury is still out on Lufile.

[jrschh]

Unless they run all 5 guys along the perimeter, someone will be around to redirect shots inside. We have three legit shot blockers on this team and the jury is still out on Lufile.

It's possible they do, Princeton is a lot of motion perimeter movement w/ the Center running high post options and some post ups. Often the back door is when the post is open. Again, I've NEVER seen USAFA run their version of the Princeton Offense, so they could have a different tweak to it.

I do know they like to shoot the 3s. 44% of their FG attempts are from the 3 point line. Even their 6-10 Center is 6-9 from there. While he doesn't shoot it much our bigs will still have to respect his shooting ability.

BL - I think we will win, but their offense set and altitude could give us some challanges. Remember, in the CU game USAFA didn't have an "altitude" advantage. I think this game could be closer than some think. However, I WILL be happy if it is a 20 pt blow out!

[ltcpilot]

Hi all, Air Force Fan here.....

Check out my thoughts and preview of the game...would like to hear your thoughts...

Preview: Air Force (6-1) vs. Wichita
State (7-0)


It is a key matchup for our Air Force Falcons as they
have NCAA tourney team Wichita
State University (WSU) coming to Clune Arena for an afternoon tipoff on
Sunday. This is an excellent matchup and game for our Falcons as they prepare
for MWC conference play in January. This game is a continuation of the MWC vs.
MVC Challenge which saw a major upset this week with the MWC's Boise State
beating #11 Creighton. Air Force hopes to play spoiler by also upsetting their
MVC Challenge opponent.

WSU lost key players to graduation to include
last year’s top four scorers, but have reloaded and stand at the top of their
conference at 7-0 in OOC play.
The Shockers play with an aggressive style grabbing 39 rebounds per game and
primarily scoring by going to the inside, averaging 73ppg on 44% FG, 29% 3pt and
69%FT shooting. Their go to guy from the outside is Wessel, 6' G at 11-22 50%
(and 6 ppg). The overall key to WSU's success is depth as they have 9 players
average 15mpg or more, with their starters playing between 19-28 mpg.

WSU is led by two power forwards who shoot from inside and go to the glass on both
ends of the court. Early, 6'8"/215# F averages 14ppg, 6 reb and shoots only 21%
from the arc. Hall, 6'8"/240# also averages 14ppg plus 8 reb and had 11 in last
game vs. Tulsa Guards (note: Hall's game is totally an inside game, leading the
team at 28 mpg while he has shot zero threes this season). Armstead and Baker
round out the lineup at 7ppg each. Interesting matchup for Air force if Orukpe
(7'/250# center) plays. He did not play in last game as he was either
sick/injured but, while he does not average many points he does get 4 rpg in
15mpg when playing. Sounds like this team will try to be physical inside and win
the rebounding battle as did Colorado, trying to drive the lane to
score.

This is almost a ‘must win’ game for Air Force.............(read full article plus news links and stats at http://forums.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=238&f=1550&t=10768934 )

I'm curious....based on your play this fall, do you expect to see your team in a man or zone defense against the Princeton? I think (and hope) this will be a great matchup between two balanced teams. Thanks for letting me stop by.

GO FALCONS

[60Shock]

Best of luck to you, ltcpilot, and all the Falcons in the future. We will definitely be suporting/pulling for you and praying for you in your upcoming future Air Force careers.

Shocks - 8-0

Falcons - 5-2

[CARMAX]

After checking into the afu/col box score, the Airmen played their starting a lot, with only 2 subs getting low dbl fig min......Shaping up for a 30 min Shockfight, then are depth pulls away down the strectch. This years team is starting to look like that 10/11 year end squad, where as , you are tied at halftime with Shox, you might as well count yourself down 10 and not even know it.

football tough shox 82
Airmen 66

[CBB_Fan]

H
This is almost a ‘must win’ game for Air Force.............(read full article plus news links and stats at http://forums.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=238&f=1550&t=10768934 )

I'm curious....based on your play this fall, do you expect to see your team in a man or zone defense against the Princeton? I think (and hope) this will be a great matchup between two balanced teams. Thanks for letting me stop by.

GO FALCONS

From what I've seen, Wichita State will likely play man defense most of the time. Individually, basically everyone that sees major playing time is at least a good defender, and Orupke, Hall, Armstead, Baker, and Williams are all phenomenal. Some notes on our playstyle and players:

Our defense is strong because we force teams out of the paint. Orukpe is the key to this, but Hall and Early are also good post defenders (Hall has had 4 games with at least 3 blocks). Orukpe's lack of offense may seem to make him an ineffective player, but he is a game-changer on defense. Only 26% of our opponents shots come at the rim, and we hold our opponents to 47% there, largely by blocking 24% of those shots. For an example of Wichita State's post defense, look at the Iowa game. We held Iowa to 4-31 inside the 3PT line, basically holding them to 13%.

This allows our perimeter defenders to take chances and they are very effective at stealing the ball. When we played VCU, a team noted for incredible pressure defense, we forced them into more turnovers and stole the ball from them 8 times (which is right around our average). Demetric Williams and Armstead are both averaging about 2 steals a game, and Armstead set the Oregon season steal record twice before transferring to Wichita State.

Because of our strengths, we will likely stick to man defense. Orukpe is a quick athlete (if he is healthy), and should be able to get around a Princeton offense's ball screens and still get to the paint to stop the penetration. Our guards are good man defenders, which should help against a Princeton offense.

On offense, I have less to say. Cleanthony Early is a great midrange shooter (86% FT shooter), but has a shaky 3PT shot. On a good day, he'll go 3-6, but he tends to shoot the ball from long range more than necessary. For example, he shot the ball from deep 4+ times against Western Carolina, VCU, and Tulsa and only made 2 combined from those games.

Ron Baker can be more effective than Evan Wessel from 3, but it seems like his shot has fallen off recently. In his first game, he led the team in scoring with 18 points, off 4-7 shooting. His last 4 games though, he has gone a combined 4-17. It is likely that he will start to regress towards the mean though, as he is a better shooter than those stats show.

Carl Hall generally scores directly around the basket, but he worked on improving his range over the offseason. This has improved him from a bad FT shooter to a good one (~60% to 75%+). He can shoot the ball from about 10-15' away from the basket, but generally prefers to drive and try to get contact. He actually finishes better if his defender fouls him, BTW, for some reason. He's been missing a fair number of bunnies recently, but tends to make it up with FT shooting (5.9 FTA a game).

The key to beating Wichita State is to try and prevent Hall and Early from going to the line, and keep us shooting from the perimeter. You'll need to make your 3PT attempts, because we don't give many easy buckets inside the 3PT line.

[KC Shox]

After reviewing AFA's numbers, I've suddenly allowed what's on paper to override my initial 'gut' feeling of a Shocker win. We are a relatively young team and our experienced players are playing together (not just practicing) for the first time this season. I also can't recall the last time we ever played a team who runs the Princeton Offense. With our youth and inexperience along with the inexperience of playing D against this type of offense spells trouble for the Shox.

Although our team has been road warriors over the past couple of years, it's still a road game and the altitude may be a factor. Looking at AF's main contributors, they pretty much go 7 deep. But, 5 of the 7 are Seniors and add that to their low turnover rate this team shows it has a high BBIQ. Seniors with high BBIQ - not good for their opponents. I also made the mistake of originally thinking since this was a military academy, that size would be in our favor. However, AF's top 7 go 6'5", 6'2", 6'10", 6'5", 6'2", 6'4", and 6'6". Since Orupke won't be playing, I don't think we'll have any size advantage.

Oh and their top 7 shoot 41, 60, 66, 42, 29, 45 and 31 percent from the three line and average over 50 percent from the field. If this becomes a shooting match, WSU will not be able to hang. Keys to a Shocker victory will have to be the same defense displayed during the VCU game and our depth wearing down their top 7.

Lastly, although I am overwhelmed and overjoyed at our early success, we haven't exactly played the toughest schedule (sans VCU). Being on the road, a quality opponent, veteran leadership, an offense we have never prepared for and we continue to shoot poorly means we lose 71 - 63.

[Cdizzle]

After reviewing AFA's numbers, I've suddenly allowed what's on paper to override my initial 'gut' feeling of a Shocker win. We are a relatively young team and our experienced players are playing together (not just practicing) for the first time this season. I also can't recall the last time we ever played a team who runs the Princeton Offense. With our youth and inexperience along with the inexperience of playing D against this type of offense spells trouble for the Shox.

Although our team has been road warriors over the past couple of years, it's still a road game and the altitude may be a factor. Looking at AF's main contributors, they pretty much go 7 deep. But, 5 of the 7 are Seniors and add that to their low turnover rate this team shows it has a high BBIQ. Seniors with high BBIQ - not good for their opponents. I also made the mistake of originally thinking since this was a military academy, that size would be in our favor. However, AF's top 7 go 6'5", 6'2", 6'10", 6'5", 6'2", 6'4", and 6'6". Since Orupke won't be playing, I don't think we'll have any size advantage.

Oh and their top 7 shoot 41, 60, 66, 42, 29, 45 and 31 percent from the three line and average over 50 percent from the field. If this becomes a shooting match, WSU will not be able to hang. Keys to a Shocker victory will have to be the same defense displayed during the VCU game and our depth wearing down their top 7.

Lastly, although I am overwhelmed and overjoyed at our early success, we haven't exactly played the toughest schedule (sans VCU). Being on the road, a quality opponent, veteran leadership, an offense we have never prepared for and we continue to shoot poorly means we lose 71 - 63.

No one in the country has played a good schedule if you take out the good teams they have played...

[tropicalshox]

I would be surprised if KC thought we will win.

[ShockTalk]

After reviewing AFA's numbers, I've suddenly allowed what's on paper to override my initial 'gut' feeling of a Shocker win. We are a relatively young team and our experienced players are playing together (not just practicing) for the first time this season. I also can't recall the last time we ever played a team who runs the Princeton Offense. With our youth and inexperience along with the inexperience of playing D against this type of offense spells trouble for the Shox.

Although our team has been road warriors over the past couple of years, it's still a road game and the altitude may be a factor. Looking at AF's main contributors, they pretty much go 7 deep. But, 5 of the 7 are Seniors and add that to their low turnover rate this team shows it has a high BBIQ. Seniors with high BBIQ - not good for their opponents. I also made the mistake of originally thinking since this was a military academy, that size would be in our favor. However, AF's top 7 go 6'5", 6'2", 6'10", 6'5", 6'2", 6'4", and 6'6". Since Orupke won't be playing, I don't think we'll have any size advantage.

Oh and their top 7 shoot 41, 60, 66, 42, 29, 45 and 31 percent from the three line and average over 50 percent from the field. If this becomes a shooting match, WSU will not be able to hang. Keys to a Shocker victory will have to be the same defense displayed during the VCU game and our depth wearing down their top 7.

Lastly, although I am overwhelmed and overjoyed at our early success, we haven't exactly played the toughest schedule (sans VCU). Being on the road, a quality opponent, veteran leadership, an offense we have never prepared for and we continue to shoot poorly means we lose 71 - 63.

May I counter your "youth and inexperience" with the fact that Colorado has 9 freshman and 3 sophmores listed on their roster. The Buffs top 3 players are 2 sophs and a freshman with only 1 junior and 1 senior in their main 6 rotation. Colorado outrebounded AF 45-17, 14-4 on the offensive board and won by 15. The Buffs main 6 go 6'10" (freshman), 6'7", 6'6', 6'5', 6'4", 6'1". Colorado did shoot very well, but AF not much behind. To counter Colorado's shooting, they had 15 TOs to AF's 6. AF also had 21 PF to the Buffs 14.

With our depth, I do not believe altitude will be much of a factor.

[KC Shox]

I would be surprised if KC thought we will win.

I've been predicting wins all year. Do I have to remind you I was spot on with my 26 point margin of victory prediction over Tulsa last go around? I didn't see you chime in then...

[tropicalshox]

I've been predicting wins all year. Do I have to remind you I was spot on with my 26 point margin of victory prediction over Tulsa last go around? I didn't see you chime in then...

OK, maybe somebody hacked your account. I thought you wrote this for the Iowa game:

"Iowa wins this one. Yes, we appear to be more athletic, but Iowa is not a small team and I think they'll be able to hang enough to disrupt the minor advantage we have in athleticism. Keys to the game, they'll figure out to zone us, we still won't be able to hit the perimeter shot and one guy on their team is going to shoot lights out and end up scoring in the upper 20's.

Final score Iowa 74, Wichita State 67."

[ltcpilot]

Good comments across the board. As I said before, this will be an interesting matchup and a chess match with both coaches (read this as pick your poison as you defend the inside or outside).

I know your bigs, forwards and center do rule the lane and I see what you have done in earlier games....but defending the back door cuts of the Princeton can be different from 'seeing and defending' drives to the bucket in typical offenses, especially if you have a younger team.

Good points about our rebounding and PFs in the game vs CU and I will try to give you one point of view. Our players really ignored the golden rule in the last 10 minutes of that game on offense....to work inside out vs CUs zone defense. We did not penetrate as we should and began accepting early and not good looks frm the arc. I give all the credit to CUs defense but we made some errors. On offense, with the large number of three's we shot vs the zone we were just not in position to block out and rebound (next game we won the glass battle 40-22). On defense we did just get beat on the boards.

Don't underestimate our bench, I know they will perform well.

GO FALCONS

Can't wait for this one and hope we play well.

[KC Shox]

OK, maybe somebody hacked your account. I thought you wrote this for the Iowa game:

"Iowa wins this one. Yes, we appear to be more athletic, but Iowa is not a small team and I think they'll be able to hang enough to disrupt the minor advantage we have in athleticism. Keys to the game, they'll figure out to zone us, we still won't be able to hit the perimeter shot and one guy on their team is going to shoot lights out and end up scoring in the upper 20's.

Final score Iowa 74, Wichita State 67."

Yes sir, but Tulsa was a spot on match. Yes I'm bragging about that.