Realignment Carousel Spins Up again (USC and UCLA to Big 10)

[Walker]

Is it possible that the common perception that title IX constraints and football being too costly to start up and maintain will change to the perception that it will be too costly to not have football? I know it's not the answer to all of this but it feels like like we'd have a bit more leverage in controlling the destiny of the university in these realignment shakeups.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Almost independent time...

If the conference implodes, we switch to independent and play everybody.

Then we announce a 12 month plan to restart football. A 24 month plan to begin building a new stadium.

We'll need a nice gift ($50M) from the top 5 Shocker boosters to get things rolling.

The rest is history.


If the Shockers don't get their athletics back into the top 30 nationally, the city of Wichita will be history.

[Stickboy46]

My only concern is the MWC/AAC combo would likely be strong in MBB but suck in football (assuming Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA go to the PAC-12). No media partner wants to pay for a conference that sucks in football.

For WSU, the PAC-12 invite wouldn't be the worst if they decided to add a larger chunk of AAC schools to balance out the geographical dispersion.

Yea PAC would be more money for sure.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

The more i think about this (the pipe dream of us getting added with Gonzaga) .. i don't think it makes sense as is. We would need multiple of the texas schools to go with us. I don't think we want to lose a presence in Texas especially with where we have been recruiting heavily lately. I think it would be a hard to sell to get recuits to get excited about going out west all the time.

I actually think i would prefer a mini implosion with a combination of MWC/AAC coming out of it.

My only concern is the MWC/AAC combo would likely be strong in MBB but suck in football (assuming Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA go to the PAC-12). No media partner wants to pay for a conference that sucks in football.

For WSU, the PAC-12 invite wouldn't be the worst if they decided to add a larger chunk of AAC schools to balance out the geographical dispersion.

[Stickboy46]

I don't want WSU to be in a West Coast conference, but if these guys start poaching the top programs from the AAC I would hope ADKS can get us in there (perhaps as a basketball-only partner to Gonzaga).

The more i think about this (the pipe dream of us getting added with Gonzaga) .. i don't think it makes sense as is. We would need multiple of the texas schools to go with us. I don't think we want to lose a presence in Texas especially with where we have been recruiting heavily lately. I think it would be a hard to sell to get recuits to get excited about going out west all the time.

I actually think i would prefer a mini implosion with a combination of MWC/AAC coming out of it.

[Stickboy46]

It will be interesting to see what their media deal will look like. Right now they have a **** ton of money that was forfeit by the schools that left and the PAC will be paying the bulk of the exit fees for the MWC schools, which I believe I read will be around $36M each because it will be less than 2 years notice. I'm sure that will end up being less, but the PAC is still looking at around $80M in exit fees for the four schools. How much are they covering and how much of that stockpile will that eat up?

I'm also not sure if the media deal will be enough to stretch to conference across the country. Remember, the PAC was abandoned because the media deal with all of the major schools in it wasn't competitive with the other P conferences. They're definitely not going to be getting more by adding the schools they're adding. I'm sure they still may end up making more than the MWC and AAC as a whole, but is it enough to warrant the potential travel costs associated with schools in the east? That, at this point, is very debatable. I was a little surprised they went as far as Colorado Springs to be honest. I figured they'd keep things a little closer to the coast and maybe add another California school or one of the Nevada schools instead.

They'll have to add at least two more before the 2026 season, unless they're granted some sort of extension as the 25-26 academic year will be the end of the two year window to get back to eight. I would think the most likely options would be one of the Nevada schools and possibly Utah State to get to eight, unless they want to add San Jose.

As far as the American goes, if they reach in I could see them target Rice.

As it stands right now, the MWC has remaining: Air Force, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State, and Wyoming. So the MWC will be needing to add at least one school as it stands now. I don't see them being able to pull an AAC school, which leaves them to hold their nose and call up New Mexico State or UTEP or try and convince NDSU and SDSU to make the jump to FBS. I don't really see the MWC wanting FCS schools, but if you're to make an exception those are the two schools you make the exception for. I'm not sure if either of the Montana schools are in a place financially to jump up and I'm not sure the MWC sees them as attractive enough anyway. The other option would be to go after recent CUSA call up Sam Houston State which had a strong run in FCS but I'm not sure is ready for a jump to the MWC. Texas State out of the Belt would be another hesitant type of option if they wanted in Texas. I don't see any of the WAC FCS schools being tempting.

Bolded part .. keep in mind they were offered 50 million per .. but turned it down because they wanted more. Then the networks went elsewhere. Granted a lot of the big brands are gone now.

The AAC is at 7 million per.

There is a LOT of room for them to double or triple an AAC schools payout. They still have the Pac12 brand, they have a lot of inventory in time zones that other conferences don't. If they pull 2-4 of our top football schools, they have a massive leg up on getting the Group of 6 auto bid every year in the CFP. They won't have a ton of dead weight in football. So there are lots of reasons why I could see them getting 15-20 million per school with the right last 2-4 additions.

[ShockBand]

Is it bad for me to want to see all this dollar chasing conference realignment come crashing down like an effing house of cards? If TV money is what props this up, is there a point where that money flow collapses?

[SubGod22]

It will be interesting to see what their media deal will look like. Right now they have a **** ton of money that was forfeit by the schools that left and the PAC will be paying the bulk of the exit fees for the MWC schools, which I believe I read will be around $36M each because it will be less than 2 years notice. I'm sure that will end up being less, but the PAC is still looking at around $80M in exit fees for the four schools. How much are they covering and how much of that stockpile will that eat up?

I'm also not sure if the media deal will be enough to stretch to conference across the country. Remember, the PAC was abandoned because the media deal with all of the major schools in it wasn't competitive with the other P conferences. They're definitely not going to be getting more by adding the schools they're adding. I'm sure they still may end up making more than the MWC and AAC as a whole, but is it enough to warrant the potential travel costs associated with schools in the east? That, at this point, is very debatable. I was a little surprised they went as far as Colorado Springs to be honest. I figured they'd keep things a little closer to the coast and maybe add another California school or one of the Nevada schools instead.

They'll have to add at least two more before the 2026 season, unless they're granted some sort of extension as the 25-26 academic year will be the end of the two year window to get back to eight. I would think the most likely options would be one of the Nevada schools and possibly Utah State to get to eight, unless they want to add San Jose.

As far as the American goes, if they reach in I could see them target Rice.

As it stands right now, the MWC has remaining: Air Force, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State, and Wyoming. So the MWC will be needing to add at least one school as it stands now. I don't see them being able to pull an AAC school, which leaves them to hold their nose and call up New Mexico State or UTEP or try and convince NDSU and SDSU to make the jump to FBS. I don't really see the MWC wanting FCS schools, but if you're to make an exception those are the two schools you make the exception for. I'm not sure if either of the Montana schools are in a place financially to jump up and I'm not sure the MWC sees them as attractive enough anyway. The other option would be to go after recent CUSA call up Sam Houston State which had a strong run in FCS but I'm not sure is ready for a jump to the MWC. Texas State out of the Belt would be another hesitant type of option if they wanted in Texas. I don't see any of the WAC FCS schools being tempting.

[Stickboy46]

I'm curious to know what kind of media payout the PAC-12 rebuild could even offer. Feels like most of the flagship football schools in the AAC (Memphis, USF, Tulane) would prefer to be in a more eastern/central conference. However, UTSA and UNT might be willing to jump.

I'm sure the PAC-12 rebuild has a plan though, they certainly aren't going to sit at six members.

Probably better than most would assume. They fill time slots that other schools can't. So they get a little boost just for that even if the team names aren't as big as they are in the past. I think they will have quite a bit higher than the american but not close to the P4

And they CAN'T sit at 6 members. I think they have to have 8 by 2026? to be recognized officially as a conference. I think they got a 2 year grace window when everyone left last year.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

Yea, this could be another death blow to the AAC. Pac still needs 2 more full members by 2026? to qualify. So they are going to poach two more. I would expect that to be either some of our texas schools, or 2-4 of the top football members of our conference (Memphis, Tulane, UTSA?, and USF?) as a eastern wing. I think you'd likely see the remainders of the MWC and AAC merge which isn't horrible from a basketball standpoint. Utah State and Nevada are solid. UNLV can be good. New Mexico and Wyoming have been good at times. Travel will be alot though.

So if we can't join that Pac12 rebuild, then a combined remainder conference might not be horrible.

I'm curious to know what kind of media payout the PAC-12 rebuild could even offer. Feels like most of the flagship football schools in the AAC (Memphis, USF, Tulane) would prefer to be in a more eastern/central conference. However, UTSA and UNT might be willing to jump.

I'm sure the PAC-12 rebuild has a plan though, they certainly aren't going to sit at six members.

[Stickboy46]

I don't want WSU to be in a West Coast conference, but if these guys start poaching the top programs from the AAC I would hope ADKS can get us in there (perhaps as a basketball-only partner to Gonzaga).

Yea, this could be another death blow to the AAC. Pac still needs 2 more full members by 2026? to qualify. So they are going to poach two more. I would expect that to be either some of our texas schools, or 2-4 of the top football members of our conference (Memphis, Tulane, UTSA?, and USF?) as a eastern wing. I think you'd likely see the remainders of the MWC and AAC merge which isn't horrible from a basketball standpoint. Utah State and Nevada are solid. UNLV can be good. New Mexico and Wyoming have been good at times. Travel will be alot though.

So if we can't join that Pac12 rebuild, then a combined remainder conference might not be horrible.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

I don't want WSU to be in a West Coast conference, but if these guys start poaching the top programs from the AAC I would hope ADKS can get us in there (perhaps as a basketball-only partner to Gonzaga).

[C0|dB|00ded]

Anybody visited MVCFans lately? Talk about a place that will make you feel better about the AAC.

And I said better, not good.

And to think, this all started with OU and UT leaving the B12. Any chance a couple power programs have regrets over what those two did? Pac10 would love to pull a Sarah Conner, that's for sure.

[shock]

I'll concede the first two but some of us older guys remember smu as the only program to get the Death Penalty. So they do have that going for them but the biggest thing is the billions in oil money that looks good on any membership application.

SMU football would be on par with Alabama. They didn’t do anything anybody else wasn’t, they just were better and didn’t pay off the right people.

[pogo]

SMU also has other things that Memphis doesn't. Dallas. Good academics. I respectable reputation.

I'll concede the first two but some of us older guys remember smu as the only program to get the Death Penalty. So they do have that going for them but the biggest thing is the billions in oil money that looks good on any membership application.