NCAA Tournament - WSU vs Drake Pre-Game Predictions and Discussions

[The Mad Hatter]

As others have alluded to, I think that aggressiveness will be an important factor in this game. While we want to avoid hero ball, one area that we have a clear statistical edge over Drake is in getting to the free throw line (Drake is more efficient at the free throw line, however). Here are some season stats:

	Fouls per Game	Opponent Fouls per Game	Free Throws per Game	Opponent Free Throws per Game
Drake	15.6	14.2	14.7	15.7
WSU	15.6	18.1	21.9	17.1

In spite of playing 8 fewer games than Drake, we have attempted 32 more free throws and Tyson alone has more free throw makes than any Drake player has attempts.

In general this season, when we have been aggressive and gotten to the free throw line more than our opponents, it has been a good sign for our success. Take our two games against Houston and Cincinnati for example:

	WSU Free Throws	Opponent Free Throws
Win v. Houston	18/21	5/11
Loss v. Houston	15/22	17/24
Win v. Cincy	23/34	16/23
Loss v. Cincy	6/12	11/18

Obviously we have been up and down when it comes to making our free throws (as we have been up and down in a lot of categories this year), but when we have been most successful we have often done so by being the aggressors and getting to the line. Given that Drake has an already thin rotation and already is prone to putting opponents on the line more than they get there, this seems like potential swing point in the match up.

BTW, even Loyola (by far the best team Drake has played) is not as good a drawing fouls at WSU (although they are better at not committing them). They average 16.3 opponent fouls and Loyola averages 16.4 free throw attempts per game.

[wichshock65]

Warning: Long Boring Post Mostly For Accountants

I have not seen Drake play this season and really know little about them except that they will be without their 6-0, 185 R-Jr point guard Roman Penn who started the first 24 games this season averaged 11.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, 2.25 TPG (2.43 A/T Ratio), and 3.3 RPG before going down with a season ending foot injury. However, his backup 6-0, 180 So Joseph Yesufu has has played in all 29 games, averaging 22.9 MPG, for Drake this year and started the 5 games since Penn went down may be a better offensive player than although perhaps not as good of a assist man. Yesufu has a season average of 12.1 PPG. However, in his last 5 games as a starter he played all but 1 minute over those 5 games and he averaged 22.0 PPG in those games with a high of 36 against Evansville and a low of 12 against Loyola in the Valley Tournament. Penn and Yesufu have almost identical overall FG% but Yesufu appears to be a better and more prolific 3 point shooter. Penn was 20-60 (33.3%) on 3-ptrs and Yesufu was 39-105 (37.1%). Yesufu (63-78 for 80.8%) also gets to the free throw line more than Penn (40-57 for 70.2%).

6-6 Sr. F Shanquan Hemphill lead Drake in scoring at 14.1 PPG and also grabbed 6.3 RPG through the first 20 games of the season before surgery on a fractured left foot on February 11th sidelined him for a projected 4 weeks. That 4 weeks is up and so Hemphill may very well play on Thursday but how basketball ready he will be in terms of conditioning and rustiness remains to be seen. His replacement in the lineup, 6-3,175 Jr Garrett SturRtz has average 9.5 PPG with a pretty impressive 6.8 RPG at his size. Sturtz like Yesufu also played all but 1 minute of Drakes last 5 games. Not sure whether Hemphill will start or not and whether he does or not how long he will be able to go. Hemphill was the Valley Newcomer of the Year. He played to years of juco at Florida Southwestern, played his junior season at Green Bay then sat out the next season with a medical redshirt before transferring to Drake.

Looks like Drake has really shortened the bench and relied mostly on their starters over the last 5 games after losing Penn.

Since I have not seen Drake play I pretty much limited to looking at the roster and at the stat sheet for Drake. I will leave to others to provide more qualitative analysis of Drake based on actually seeing them play. For now I will assume Hemphill will start in this game

Point Guard:
Drake: Joseph Yesufu 6-0, 180 So -- 45.3% FG, 37.1% 3FG (39-105), 80.8% FT, 12.1 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.76 APG/1.14 TPG, 1.55 A/T Ratio
Shocks: Alterique Gilbert 6-0, 180 R-Sr -- 35.1% FG, 30.4% 3FG (28-92), 71.7% FT, 10.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 4.15 APG/2.24 TPG, 1.86 A/T Ratio

2 Guard:
Drake: D.J. Wilkins 6-2. 182 Jr -- 43.1% FG, 41.8% 3FG (66-158). 78.4% FT, 10.6 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 2.11 APG/0.94 TPG = 2.25 A/T Ratio
Shocks: Tyson ETN 6-2, 200 So -- 37.9% FG, 39.9% 3FG (65-163), 76.1% FT, 17.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.62 APG/1.15 TPG = 2.28 A/T Ratio

3 Man:
Drake: Shanquan Hemphill 6-6, 195 Sr -- 58.7% FG, 33.3% 3FG (1-3). 64.9% FT, 14.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 8 Blocks
or Garrett Sturtz 6-3 175 Jr. -- 56.3% FG, 33.3% 3FG (5-15), 75.4% FT, 8.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 9 Blocks
Shocks: Dexter Dennis 6-5, 210 Jr -- 36.1% FG, 33.7% 3FG (34-101), 80.8% FT, 9.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 14 Blocks

4 Man:
Drake: Tremell Murphy 6-6. 210 R-Sr -- 51.4% FG, 37.9% 3FG (36-95). 71.4% FT, 10.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 25 Blocks
Shocks: Trey Wade 6-6, 221 Sr -- 40.0% FG, 30.0% #FG (18-60), 55.2% ft, 6.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 13 Blocks

5 Man:
Drake: Darnell Brodie 6-10, 275 Jr -- 57.5% FG, 62.1% FT, 7.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 14 Blocks
Shocks: Morris Udeze 6-8, 235 Jr -- 60.2% FG, 70.3% FT, 9.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 189 Blocks

Bench:
Point Guard: Not sure if Drake has another point guard with Penn out. I would guess that if Yesufu needs a break or gets in foul trouble Drake would slide Wilkins to the point and bring in one of the other bench players to play the 2.
Shocks: Craig Porter 6-2, 185 Jr and Trevin Wade 5-11, 175 Jr. Trevin may actually come in handy if he is able to play Thursday if Porter is not quick enough to keep Yesufu in front of him.

2 Guard:
Drake: Garett Sturts 6-3, 175 Jr. or perhaps Jonah Jackson a 6-3, 210 Sr. Sturtz has played about 3 times more minutes than Jackson has this year and per above filled in for Shanquan Hemphill at the 3 in the last 9 games. Good possibility the Sturtz may start in place of Hemhill at the 3. No doubt he will certainly need to spell Hemphill for signfiicant minutes even if Hemphill does play.
Shocks: The Shocks would seem to have a lot more flexibility here. They could insert Ricky Council IV 6-6 205 Jr. in the 3 and move Dexter to the 2 or Craig Porter can back up Tyson at the 2 in needed. I prefer the first option.

3-Man:
Drake: A lot depends on how much Hemphill can play and how effective he can be. But Drake doesn't look to have a lot of options here outside of Hemphill and Sturtz.
Shocks: Ricky Council IV, 6-6 205 Jr. -- Ricky could present some issues for the Bulldogs.

4-Man & 5 Man:
Drake: Another spot where Drake doesn't seem to have a lot of options. They have 2 R-Fr, Issa Samake 6-8, 220 and Nate Ferguson 6-8, 210 that each paly about 10 minutes per game. Feguson has not played in any of he last 5 games and his minutes were diminishing prior to that. So assuming he is available I would expect it to be for some brief minutes to give either Murphy or Brodie a blow or a break glass in case of emergency. Samake appears to be the primary guy of the bench available to back probably Brodie primarily and maybe Murphy. The other option if Murphy needs a blow or gets in foul trouble is Drake goes small and perhaps uses Hemphill and Sturts in the lineup at the same time.

Shocks: Clarence Jackson, a 6-7, 210 So, is a terrific backup for Trey Wade at the 4 and I don't think many Shocker fans would upset to see Trey and C-Jack get equal minutes. Hopefully, Poor Bear, 6-9, 250 Jr, is ready to go and can back up Mo. Not sure how skilled Drake's Brodie is, but he is a very large man and from the pictures I have seen of him he carries that weight as muscle. That can wear a player down having to battle that size. OTOH, if Poor Bear can give the Shocks some good minutes perhaps he and Mo can wear down the big man aerobically.

I would say a couple things about the stat comparisons. I would guess that the athletes WSU have been going against on average are probably quite a bit better that the athletes Drake has been competing against on average. Now maybe Drake can make up for that by playing very smart, team oriented basketball. We'll just have to see about that.

It would appear the Drake most likely will rely heavily on their top 6 guys (assuming Hemphill can give then some decent minutes). The Shocks would seem to have a clear edge in their bench quality and depth.

The Shocks still need to clean some things up. Be a little more patient perhaps. AG getting the team in its offense and not dribbling away the time clock, sharing the ball, taking and making good shots and, of course, defend and rebound, defend and rebound, defend and rebound.

That's my purely quantitative take on this game.

[WstateU]

Coldblooded’s style, coldblooded gif...

[Dan]

We struggle against super aggressive defenders, especially when they are long and athletic. I just don’t see that being a characteristic of this Drake team. Drake specializes in running an efficient offense. Our defense can handle efficient offenses and make them look like they had a bad game. USC concerns me, but this Drake team does not. My 2 cents.

[wichshock65]

[ShockerFever]

I expect us to come out focussed.. at first. But then as the game progresses, I can see hero ball taking over. Guys wanting to look good on the big stage and getting full of themselves and just start chucking shots. If that happens, we lose, possibly badly. But if we actually stay focussed the WHOLE game, run an OFFENSE, tie up the DAWGS for a bit, then this is a team we can pull away from. It's all about playing 40 minutes, something this team hasn't done all season. I'm not sure if that's coaching or what, but it's the most disconcerting thing about this team. If we get a disciplined, focussed, I like our chances a lot. If we start chucking, hunting, and DAWGing, prepare for Valley embarrassment.

[Shock Top]

I expect TE and AG to step up and take true leadership these next game(s), however long they stay alive.

I know they weren’t happy with their showing and performance in DFW.

[pogo]

Earlier in this topic they asked Andy Enfield if he knew anything about where WSU or Drake was located. He may not be very proficient in knowing location but he does have a hot wife. Not as good looking as the USC Song girls/cheerleaders but pretty good. Go Shocks

[proshox]

I expect us to come out focussed.. at first. But then as the game progresses, I can see hero ball taking over. Guys wanting to look good on the big stage and getting full of themselves and just start chucking shots. If that happens, we lose, possibly badly. But if we actually stay focussed the WHOLE game, run an OFFENSE, tie up the DAWGS for a bit, then this is a team we can pull away from. It's all about playing 40 minutes, something this team hasn't done all season. I'm not sure if that's coaching or what, but it's the most disconcerting thing about this team. If we get a disciplined, focussed, I like our chances a lot. If we start chucking, hunting, and DAWGing, prepare for Valley embarrassment.

i was at the games last weekend... I see the same struggles, but they aren’t a result of dawgs. In fact, HCIB is relentlessly coaching.

When things go bad it is because we have too many guys unwilling to make a play resulting in pressure on the two willing play-makers. USF’s entire bench was LOUD calling out every set, pick, and cut. USF did this while having a significant size and athleticism advantage at almost every position. USF remained hyper focused on the players that could hurt them. Combine all of the above and you get a crummy Shocker performance.

Furthermore - We have a team that is willing to compete, but the only guys that don’t play at a size and athleticism disadvantage are also the guys that have the least experience (Ricky and Monzi). A lot of these disadvantages aren’t as apparent on tv, but in person it looks like a high school team vs. an NBA team. After watching the last few games in person - I am amazed at how well this has all worked out.

Now we are playing with house money. Hopefully the guys stay loose and go make some plays.

[shelback]

We're gonna need Poor Bear to get 5...FIVE fouls. Wear their Big down. Make him work for it...so MO can attack him and draw 5 fouls on their big.

That dude presents nothing the SHOX haven't seen basically every game with the exception of the 2 DII teams. We don't need Poor Bear for 5 fouls, we need Poor Bear getting the munutes he usually gives.

[shelback]

Yeah I wouldn't think he would be anywhere near game shape

If he plays and goes off on Dexter hats off to dude

[The Mad Hatter]

One thing that I think will be interesting is seeing how this match-up differs from what each team was used to seeing in conference play. A particular area of interest is shot blocking. When you look at the conference numbers, it becomes very clear that shots are contested at the bucket at a much higher rate in the American than in the Valley. For instance, WSU is only the #5 team in blocked shots per game in the AAC, but would have been tied for 1st in the Valley. Meanwhile, Drake is 4th in the MVC, but would be 9th in the AAC. Here are the full numbers:

American	Block Per Game	Valley	Blocks Per Game
Memphis	4.9	Bradley	3.6
Houston	4.7	Valpo	3.5
SMU	4.5	Ill. St.	3.4
Cincy	3.8	Drake	3.0
WSU	3.6	Ind. St.	2.9
UCF	3.4	MSU	2.9
ECU	3.1	UNI	2.6
Tulane	3.1	Loyola	2.4
USF	2.8	Evansville	2.2
Temple	2.4	SIU	1.8
Tulsa	2.0

This raises a couple of questions for me. First, will Drake struggle to shoot their normal (very good) percentages when facing better shot-blocking? Maybe, maybe not, but it is worth noting that Drake lost to both Bradley and Valpo and in those two games Drake had shots blocked 11 times combined. The Valpo game in particular, Drake had 7 shots blocked and shot .365 from the field compared to their season average of .494. Second, will WSU get cleaner looks when attacking the basket than we are used to? Also hard to say, but it can't hurt.

Obviously, on paper Drake's offensive efficiency gives them an edge in this game, but if WSU contested shots at the basket better than Drake is accustomed to and WSU gets cleaner looks when we get to the rim (especially some like AG) those shooting percentage differences could potentially equalize quite a bit. I think Drake is a veteran enough and well-polished enough team that the latter of these two dynamics is more likely to be impactful.

[ShockingButTrue]

That dude presents nothing the SHOX haven't seen basically every game with the exception of the 2 DII teams. We don't need Poor Bear for 5 fouls, we need Poor Bear getting the munutes he usually gives.

Their big is 6'10" and 275 with soft hands. Not much of a scorer but averages 7 boards a game and shoots 57.5% from the field. He will keep our post busy. If the Shocks don't let him have a career game we should be alright there. He's very much capable of 15 and 10 against us. He had 13 double digit rebound games and several more close to it.

Their bigger threat on the front-line will be Murphy. He matches up with Wade favorably at 6'6". Averages 10 and 5 and shoots 51% from the field. Someone is going to have to guard him tight. I guess that leaves Dex on Hemphill. I'm expecting Dex to play better D this week than he did last week against 6'6" Williams. At least I would hope so! I don't expect too much rust from Hemphilll, however he is their leading rebounder so he is very active. Just don't let him get hot to start the game. I'm talking to you Dex.

Yesfu has stepped it up since 1st team Valley Penn was lost to the the tune of 18.5 a game (had a 6 game stretch of 26 a game), as the inserted starter. Etienne gets that assignment. It'll be a good match-up.

Sturtz is a bit of a wild card. Big guard (but not real big) who averages 8.4 and 5.6 boards a game with 56.3% from the field. The Shocks better not let this kid embarrass them.

The Bulldogs other staring guard averaged 10.6 points and 2 assists on the season: D.J. Wilkins. Not a good shooter from the field, but shoots 40+% from trey land. He should be watched at all times.

Drake really has no bench to speak of. What you see is what you get. Shocks should drive (and dish!!!) and draw fouls early and often, but -ahem- smartly. I like the Shocks chances since Drake is without their general, but, the extra motivation of "let's do it for Roman!" concerns me more than just a little, and, apparently, the experts think without him it's a 50/50 game. Take that for what it's worth. Shocks should win on the glass and that's important.

There is no doubt in my mind this team is better than the 08 Drake squad but they lost a very important piece at a very important position, although Yesfu has more than stepped up in his absence. With him (Penn) they might be better than Loyola, but we'll never know (I hope anyway).

[AZ Shocker]

i was at the games last weekend... I see the same struggles, but they aren’t a result of dawgs. In fact, HCIB is relentlessly coaching.

When things go bad it is because we have too many guys unwilling to make a play resulting in pressure on the two willing play-makers. USF’s entire bench was LOUD calling out every set, pick, and cut. USF did this while having a significant size and athleticism advantage at almost every position. USF remained hyper focused on the players that could hurt them. Combine all of the above and you get a crummy Shocker performance.

Furthermore - We have a team that is willing to compete, but the only guys that don’t play at a size and athleticism disadvantage are also the guys that have the least experience (Ricky and Monzi). A lot of these disadvantages aren’t as apparent on tv, but in person it looks like a high school team vs. an NBA team. After watching the last few games in person - I am amazed at how well this has all worked out.

Now we are playing with house money. Hopefully the guys stay loose and go make some plays.

You observation reminds me of what I just finished watching tonight.

Highly recommend if you (or other ShockerNetters) haven't seen it yet on Netflix "Last Chance U”. All about college BASKETBALL and wanting it!!!!!!!!

*** Hits the hardwood in East Los Angeles as a coach with strong convictions leads young men who hope to fulfill major college potential. ***

[Stickboy46]