Games of Interest: Dec. 18th - 24th

[ShockTalk]

Alabama wins at home over Ok St 69-52.

At the half, Utah St over St Peter's 41-17.

[shockmonster]

Alabama wins at home over Ok St 69-52.

At the half, Utah St over St Peter's 41-17.

Not at home. At Montgomery Alabama

[ShockTalk]

Not at home. At Montgomery Alabama

Sorry for the misinformation. ESPN had it "@ Alabama" and not "vs" with an *, so I looked no further. Maybe it's a "home game" for the Tide.

[shockmonster]

Sorry for the misinformation. ESPN had it "@ Alabama" and not "vs" with an *, so I looked no further. Maybe it's a "home game" for the Tide.

I just saw Montgomery written on the endline of the bb court. I guess that it could be Montgomery Court named after Mr. Montgomery in Tuscaloosa Alabama. I just figured that it was a neutral setting in Montgomery Alabama.

[Anthroshock]

I just saw Montgomery written on the endline of the bb court. I guess that it could be Montgomery Court named after Mr. Montgomery in Tuscaloosa Alabama. I just figured that it was a neutral setting in Montgomery Alabama.

Pretty sure it was in B'ham.

[shockmonster]

I think you're right.

[shockerofandover0943]

Utah St. won by 25. They play Kent St. tomorrow, who was around 75 in the RPI but lost by 1 to UT-A today. Would still be a good win.

[JaminShock]

Great RPI night for the Shocks, now 40 according to warrennolan, due to all our opponents winning.

[shox1989]

The key is to look at what the RPI will likely be, not what they are right now. All of these projections are made using what is statistically most probable and things can change with unexpected wins and losses, but right now Ohio is projected to finish the season at #19 in the RPI and St. Mary's is projected to finish at #24. UNI is projected (based on Sagarin's Predictor) to go 12-6 in conference and finish #26 in the RPI with a 3-4 record against the top 50. That means that they are expected to finish in a tie for 3rd place in the Valley, but a #26 RPI and 3 top 50 wins is a solid resume. Obviously, they could fail to live up to the projection, but 12-6 is hardly an ambitious number to reach.

.................................... Obviously the snub of Missouri State in 05-06 (although that was also a year the Valley got plenty of bids) proves that anything can happen, but most of the time that is a resume that will get you in.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Missouri State in 05-06 had 4 wins against the rpi top 50 and a final rpi of 21. (this projection has UNI finishing with 3 top 50 wins this year).

The problem was, all 4 of their top 50 rpi wins came in the Valley . They had no non-conference marquee wins.

I am not saying I agree with what the committee did that year (or in previous and subsequent years to SMS, Illinois St and a few others who scheduled this way) or that scheduling like UNI has done this year (and SMS in the past) should keep a team out of the dance. I am just saying if you don't get a marquee non-conference win and you play in a conference outside of the big 9 (6 BCS conferences, A-10, MWC or C-USA) there is a good chance the committee will leave you at home.

They just don't give conference wins outside of the big 9 much weight by themselves without a confirming non-con big win (conference losses can kill you, the wins don't help much without that big non-con win).

I don't agree with it, it is just the current reality we live in.

[The Mad Hatter]

Missouri State in 05-06 had 4 wins against the rpi top 50 and a final rpi of 21. (this projection has UNI finishing with 3 top 50 wins this year).

The problem was, all 4 of their top 50 rpi wins came in the Valley . They had no non-conference marquee wins.

I am not saying I agree with what the committee did that year (or in previous and subsequent years to SMS, Illinois St and a few others who scheduled this way) or that scheduling like UNI has done this year (and SMS in the past) should keep a team out of the dance. I am just saying if you don't get a marquee non-conference win and you play in a conference outside of the big 9 (6 BCS conferences, A-10, MWC or C-USA) there is a good chance the committee will leave you at home.

They just don't give conference wins outside of the big 9 much weight by themselves without a confirming non-con big win (conference losses can kill you, the wins don't help much without that big non-con win).

I don't agree with it, it is just the current reality we live in.

It is certainly a fair point that having all of your top 50 wins in conference can hurt (although that doesn't seem to apply to BCS teams), there was another problem with Missouri State's resume that year. Not only did they not win any top 50 games in the OOC, they didn't win any top 100 games except for Bracket Busters (which UNI will also have the opportunity to add). UNI, on the other hand, has wins over Iowa State and Colorado State who are both projected to be top 75 teams.

The size of the bubble also makes a big difference in these debates and we just won't know that until much later in the season. Most of the time, though, teams with MSU's resume would have gotten in, which is why it was such a snub. Could UNI be in the same position at the end of the season? Sure, but in all likelihood they will have a solid resume, as will WSU and CU so long as all three take care of business against the bottom of the Valley.

[Aargh]

InSU has a W over Vandy. WSU has a W over UNLV. CU has an All-American. UNI is in 4th place in the Valley's likely picking order right now. It's awfully unlikely that the Valley will get 3 st-large bids. UNI is likely to get a good Bracket Buster game. They have to win that and probably be top-3 in regular season and make the finals in St. Lou to get any at-large consideration. There is no margin for error left in UNI's season. UNI has to win all the games they are supposed to win AND win some they're not supposed to win.

[ShockTalk]

InSU has a W over Vandy. WSU has a W over UNLV. CU has an All-American. UNI is in 4th place in the Valley's likely picking order right now. It's awfully unlikely that the Valley will get 3 st-large bids. UNI is likely to get a good Bracket Buster game. They have to win that and probably be top-3 in regular season and make the finals in St. Lou to get any at-large consideration. There is no margin for error left in UNI's season. UNI has to win all the games they are supposed to win AND win some they're not supposed to win.

I think it will actually be good that they are going on the road for the BB. That quality road win could really help.

[RussDaBus]

Big Night for the Valley. 4 games all against BCS opponents.

[newshock1234]

Big Night for the Valley. 4 games all against BCS opponents.

It would be great night even if the valley can go 2-2 tonight

[SubGod22]

2-2 is best case scenario.

Creighton can and probably should beat Northwestern
Missouri State could, if they play well, take down a so/so West Virginia
Bradley would need a great all around game to knock off Michigan
Southern Illinois has pretty much no chance of beating a poor Kansas State team.

If I had to put money on it, I'd say 1-3. 2-2 is possible. 3-1 would take a miracle. 4-0 would be a sign of the Apocolypse. 0-4 would be killer.