Games of Interest: Dec. 18th - 24th

[Aargh]

UNI is the poster child for the thread I started about the RPI being flawed. UNI has achieved a #4 RPI by playing a lot of upper midrange teams and beating them. Mid-range in D1 is RPI 170. Upper midrange is 70 - 150.

UNI's record against current top-50 RPI teams is 0-1.

Against teams with RPI's from 50 to 100 they are 3-1. Against 101-150 they are 3-0.

[shockerfan]

updated: added today's games. Didn't updated yesterday's games yet, but will do that later.

[Dan]

UNI is the poster child for the thread I started about the RPI being flawed. UNI has achieved a #4 RPI by playing a lot of upper midrange teams and beating them. Mid-range in D1 is RPI 170. Upper midrange is 70 - 150.

UNI's record against current top-50 RPI teams is 0-1.

Against teams with RPI's from 50 to 100 they are 3-1. Against 101-150 they are 3-0.

I would call that the ideal scheduling philosophy. Good for them, wish we could do the same thing.

[wufan]

When they were scheduled (Note 09-10 and 10-11 final RPI in parentheses), UAB (48, 46), Tulsa (72, 79), Colorado (113, 60), and Utah State (36, 22) ALL looked like they would be in the 50-100 range. Add in Alabama (95, 63), UNLV (46, 25), Temple (9, 35), and the bracket buster and that would have been 8 of our 11 D-I non-con opponents in the top 100 (with maybe 1 or 2 slipping into the 100-150 range)...That's pretty salty! Unfortunately that's not the way it has worked out.

[RoyalShock]

I would call that the ideal scheduling philosophy. Good for them, wish we could do the same thing.

But the problem is as the year goes on, their RPI will crumble because its foundation is built on sand. Those teams UNI played will start to see their RPI drop as the better BCS conferences begin playing one another and diluting the effect their buy games had on their RPIs. Those improvements will displace teams like UNI and Ohio, even if they are winning. Nine games against RPI 200+ teams (and only two vs. top-100) is going to take it's toll on Ohio.

[Aargh]

I would call that the ideal scheduling philosophy. Good for them, wish we could do the same thing.

The problem with UNI's schedule is that they don't have anything to show the Selection Committee. Their best win is over Colorado State. St. Mary's isn't top-50. Iowa State may get into the top 50, but I expect they will fold up like a house of cards in a hurricane once league play starts.

UNI has nothing on their resume that even hints at an NCAA at-large invite. If they split with CU, WSU, and InSU it looks like they'll be 3-3 against the top 50 - and all of those in the Valley. That never got MSU a bid under Hinson.

UNI's lofty RPI going into league play is based on playing and beating mediocre teams while the rest of the better D1 programs played and beat a few awful teams. UNI is likely to maintain an RPI in the 30's or 40's through the season, but only those who think RPI is a ranking system will give UNI much respect. UNI needs to win the regular season or Arch Madness to get into the NCAA's.

I'd rather have WSU's tougher schedule and lower RPI than what UNI has. WSU's problem is that they didn't win the games they should have won and a lot of our opponents are having unusually bad years.

[shockerofandover0943]

This is a pretty cool week for Utah State. They are hosting a 4 team round-robin tournament at their home court and get to play 3 games in 3 days. They get to play a couple of decent teams in UT-A and Kent State. It would be awesome if the Shocks could do something similar to that.

[shockmonster]

The problem with UNI's schedule is that they don't have anything to show the Selection Committee. Their best win is over Colorado State. St. Mary's isn't top-50. Iowa State may get into the top 50, but I expect they will fold up like a house of cards in a hurricane once league play starts.

UNI has nothing on their resume that even hints at an NCAA at-large invite. If they split with CU, WSU, and InSU it looks like they'll be 3-3 against the top 50 - and all of those in the Valley. That never got MSU a bid under Hinson.

UNI's lofty RPI going into league play is based on playing and beating mediocre teams while the rest of the better D1 programs played and beat a few awful teams. UNI is likely to maintain an RPI in the 30's or 40's through the season, but only those who think RPI is a ranking system will give UNI much respect. UNI needs to win the regular season or Arch Madness to get into the NCAA's.

I'd rather have WSU's tougher schedule and lower RPI than what UNI has. WSU's problem is that they didn't win the games they should have won and a lot of our opponents are having unusually bad years.

Games like Colorado may end up to be good wins too providing they win a couple of games from top Big 12 teams during conference play.

[AndShock]

Games like Colorado may end up to be good wins too providing they win a couple of games from top Big 12 teams during conference play.

Pac-12 :)

And the Pac-12 is awful, wouldn't be surprised to see them win some games.

[shox1989]

I would call that the ideal scheduling philosophy. Good for them, wish we could do the same thing.

If your goal is to make the ncaa tournament it is a terrible philosophy. You give the committee a good excuse to leave you out because you have NO marquee wins.

If your goal is to finish the season with a great rpi and sit at home in March then it is great.

They should name this scheduling philosophy the "Barry Hinson model". Finish the season with an rpi of 21 and sit at home.

[Dan]

If your goal is to make the ncaa tournament it is a terrible philosophy. You give the committee a good excuse to leave you out because you have NO marquee wins.

If your goal is to finish the season with a great rpi and sit at home in March then it is great.

They should name this scheduling philosophy the "Barry Hinson model". Finish the season with an rpi of 21 and sit at home.

If WSU had that schedule, ran the table or picked up 1 loss, then had some nice in conference wins, finished 1st or 2nd, we'd be dancing all day long. The problem with the "Hinson model" is that they couldn't finish higher than 4th in the league. They lost all the games against the top 2 or 3 and won against the teams below them. At some point you have to beat the better teams - same reason we were left out last year. If we beat Creighton, that will be another marquee win.

[ShockTalk]

Indiana St wins at home over 1-12 LA-Monroe, 50-35. 50-35!!

Starters played 34, 34, 27, 24, and 24 minutes.

Drake over Central Arkansas 87-64

CSU wins at Stetson 88-81

Alabama pasting Okie St 41-25 17minutes to go.

[The Mad Hatter]

The problem with UNI's schedule is that they don't have anything to show the Selection Committee. Their best win is over Colorado State. St. Mary's isn't top-50. Iowa State may get into the top 50, but I expect they will fold up like a house of cards in a hurricane once league play starts.

UNI has nothing on their resume that even hints at an NCAA at-large invite. If they split with CU, WSU, and InSU it looks like they'll be 3-3 against the top 50 - and all of those in the Valley. That never got MSU a bid under Hinson.

UNI's lofty RPI going into league play is based on playing and beating mediocre teams while the rest of the better D1 programs played and beat a few awful teams. UNI is likely to maintain an RPI in the 30's or 40's through the season, but only those who think RPI is a ranking system will give UNI much respect. UNI needs to win the regular season or Arch Madness to get into the NCAA's.

I'd rather have WSU's tougher schedule and lower RPI than what UNI has. WSU's problem is that they didn't win the games they should have won and a lot of our opponents are having unusually bad years.

The key is to look at what the RPI will likely be, not what they are right now. All of these projections are made using what is statistically most probable and things can change with unexpected wins and losses, but right now Ohio is projected to finish the season at #19 in the RPI and St. Mary's is projected to finish at #24. UNI is projected (based on Sagarin's Predictor) to go 12-6 in conference and finish #26 in the RPI with a 3-4 record against the top 50. That means that they are expected to finish in a tie for 3rd place in the Valley, but a #26 RPI and 3 top 50 wins is a solid resume. Obviously, they could fail to live up to the projection, but 12-6 is hardly an ambitious number to reach.

We, on the other hand, are projected to go 14-4 in Valley play, winning the conference regular season, and finish the year at #20 in the RPI with a 4-4 mark against the top 50. Creighton is projected at 13-5, #30 in the RPI, and 3-3 against the top 50. WSU, UNI, and CU are all in position to earn at-large bids if they win the games they are supposed to win. Obviously the snub of Missouri State in 05-06 (although that was also a year the Valley got plenty of bids) proves that anything can happen, but most of the time that is a resume that will get you in.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

[ShockTalk]

Potential bracket busters opponents:

Murray St races away from Tenn-Martin 78-54

Iona wins on the road over William & Mary 83-65

[shockerofandover0943]

Utah St. up 20 early.