March Mad and corona virus

[Aargh]

The chances of getting CV are around 0%, but that's when we have almost all businesses shut down, we're all staying in our homes and we avoid getting near people when we leave our houses. Were we to ignore this, the chances of being infected would approach 100%. There is nothing more contagious than an airborne infection that can be passed by those with no symptoms.

The chances of getting it in a meat packing plant is probably around 25%. In a prison population - it's 75% at Lansing. We're only near 0%because of the extraordinary measures we're taking to keep that number low.

In the month of April, about 1,750 people died every day. In March and April, deaths from CV exceeded the deaths from flu last year. That was over the complete 8-month flu season. Viruses don't have seasons, although there is speculation that the southern hemisphere will be hit harder as that part of the world moves into winter. At the end of March there were ~3,000 CV deaths. There were ~52,000 in April (that's the conservative figure, I've seen 59,000 attributed to April, but I'm going with the lower number). Those two months exceeded the most recent 8-month count for flu deaths.

So far, May is running at nearly 2,000 deaths a day. The model that the WH uses indicates that with relaxing of mitigation, there will be 3,000 deaths a day in June. It will probably be the middle of June before we see the effects on hospitalization rates and deaths from the relaxation of mitigation at the beginning of May.

One month of 3,000 deaths, and one of 52,000 deaths surpassed 8 months of flu deaths, and April had almost ~17 times as many deaths as there had been through March 31. The early appearance is that the death rates from CV are 7-9 times higher than death rates from flu.

There's a lot of info being put out to downplay the danger, and that's necessary to keep the public from panicking, but if you look at the numbers, CV will give you a level of respect you never had for the flu.

I'm not trying to work some political agenda. I'm not slanting my data for any bias. I'm not part of the mainstream media conspiracy to overstate things to make Trump look bad. I'm just looking at the data and seeing some opinions in this thread that do not reflect what the data is showing at this time.

[ShockerFever]

The problem is that the data you're using is biased.

You can't hide from a virus for 18 months. What do you propose we do Aargh? Shut down the country for 18 months? You think that'll go over well?

The vulnerable and elderly need to be extra cautious. The rest of the country needs to start moving again. The economic consequences are going to far supersede anything else.

[rjl]

The problem is that the data you're using is biased.

You can't hide from a virus for 18 months. What do you propose we do Aargh? Shut down the country for 18 months? You think that'll go over well?

The vulnerable and elderly need to be extra cautious. The rest of the country needs to start moving again. The economic consequences are going to far supersede anything else.

How is the data biased?

[Atxshoxfan]

Do a little more research than what the news tells you. Here's a little data I've searched out.
in 2019 the US averaged just over 8k deaths per day in the months jan- apr. During that same period this year we are just under 8k per day.
this tells me there must be less traffic accident, murders or some other cause of death this year.
It makes no since to me how a pandemic that's here to kill us all, and we are essentially about where we were this time last year.
When population growth changes it impacts death rates as well. Below is the death rates over the last few years. But for 2020 I am only using the highest rated months (jan-apr) times 3. So it is exaggerated. The rest of the data is from the bureau of statistics.
2017 = 8.580
2018 = 8.685
2019 = 8.782
2020 based on 4 month x 3 = 8..880

Once again. The numbers given as covid-19 deaths are padded in my opinion.

[Atxshoxfan]

I'm not saying the virus isn't dangerous. I believe it is to some folks, including my wife. So I use precautions to safeguard her, like others should do for their vulnerable loved ones.
but follow the money probably applies to the numbers. Hospitals get more money for putting someone on a ventilator for covid-19 than for other reasons. Money is also being dumped into research for covid-19 and will continue as long as it is a viable threat. So if I'm into research, ill keep it viable.

[rjl]

Do a little more research than what the news tells you. Here's a little data I've searched out.
in 2019 the US averaged just over 8k deaths per day in the months jan- apr. During that same period this year we are just under 8k per day.
this tells me there must be less traffic accident, murders or some other cause of death this year.
It makes no since to me how a pandemic that's here to kill us all, and we are essentially about where we were this time last year.
When population growth changes it impacts death rates as well. Below is the death rates over the last few years. But for 2020 I am only using the highest rated months (jan-apr) times 3. So it is exaggerated. The rest of the data is from the bureau of statistics.
2017 = 8.580
2018 = 8.685
2019 = 8.782
2020 based on 4 month x 3 = 8..880

Once again. The numbers given as covid-19 deaths are padded in my opinion.

The pandemic is not here to "kill us all." It's at its most deadly when the number of people who require ICU beds is greater than the number of ICU beds available. Hence social distancing to "flatten the curve." The COVID-19 mortality rate is low in the U.S. because (1) social distancing and stay-home orders were enacted at the right time, and (2) the elderly and immunocompromised have, when possible, done a pretty good job of avoiding infection.

Your numbers are meaningless when they take all causes of death into consideration. All they tell me is that, even in spite of COVID-19 killing a lot of people, stay at home orders and social distancing is saving lives.

[rjl]

Hospitals get more money for putting someone on a ventilator for covid-19 than for other reasons. .

This is false. Hospitals get most of their money from elective procedures, which they've had to put off because of the pandemic. COVID-19 is a net-negative financial situation for hospitals, especially considering so many of the infected are poor and uninsured.

Money is also being dumped into research for covid-19 and will continue as long as it is a viable threat. So if I'm into research, ill keep it viable.

Umm. Don't follow the logic here. Are researchers actively going out and killing people to pump those numbers up? Just trying to see how far this conspiracy theory goes.

[Atxshoxfan]

This is false. Hospitals get most of their money from elective procedures, which they've had to put off because of the pandemic. COVID-19 is a net-negative financial situation for hospitals, especially considering so many of the infected are poor and uninsured.



Umm. Don't follow the logic here. Are researchers actively going out and killing people to pump those numbers up? Just trying to see how far this conspiracy theory goes.

First off, they can't do electives, or haven't been able to for reasons that you stated hospital beds. 2ndly, feds are paying hospitals for all Corona virus cases when patient is uninsured and of course Medicaid Medicare. That will be your majority of hospitalized patients. They get more when ventilated than not ventilated by about 2 times.
Lastly as far as research, all I can do is give you an example of how almost all research works to get funding. Seldom if ever does a researcher present evidence against their goal. They need funding to do research and if they can't find supporting evidence, they don't get funding. I remember back in the 80, a college professor was caught planting evidence of some type of creature existing in an area of Canada because he had nothing to present to the feds for funding otherwise.
https://www.hrsa.gov/CovidUninsuredClaim

http://www.bu.edu/articles/2015/funding-for-scientific-research/

[Aargh]

The problem is that the data you're using is biased.

You can't hide from a virus for 18 months. What do you propose we do Aargh? Shut down the country for 18 months? You think that'll go over well?

The vulnerable and elderly need to be extra cautious. The rest of the country needs to start moving again. The economic consequences are going to far supersede anything else.

ROFLMAO. Data is biased. That's a new one.

I invite you to to demonstrate that any data I presented is dependent on some agenda.

We're going to reopen businesses and the economy, but it's not likely to be pretty. We're going to get used to (and accept) deaths as the price we have to pay. We're going to be fighting this thing for a long, long time unless we get a miracle out of the medical and scientific communities.

We're likely to have a basketball season. Even with every measure taken to protect players, we're likely to see some mortality among D1 players. Instead of 10K in CKA being a selllout, 1,500 might be the maximum capacity.

We're going to have to be ready (and able) to adjust to a new reality. We're in the process of adapting to a new definition of "an acceptable number of deaths".

[Atxshoxfan]

Doom and gloom...I believe that's what we hear every few years. SARS, AIDS, to name a couple that we've been told would devistate the American lifestyle. Hasn't happened yet and I don't see it happening with Covid-19.
Anyway, not for me. You can adjust your life however you want, just don't force it on me.

Play ball !!!

[Guest]

Why is this in the Basketball forum?

[Topshock]

The pandemic is not here to "kill us all." It's at its most deadly when the number of people who require ICU beds is greater than the number of ICU beds available. Hence social distancing to "flatten the curve." The COVID-19 mortality rate is low in the U.S. because (1) social distancing and stay-home orders were enacted at the right time, and (2) the elderly and immunocompromised have, when possible, done a pretty good job of avoiding infection.
.

The mortality rate is low because, well, this disease has a very low mortality rate. Simple as that. It does spread very easily so many, many people contract the disease thus there are quite a few deaths but the mortality rate is very low.

[Topshock]

ROFLMAO. Data is biased. That's a new one.

I invite you to to demonstrate that any data I presented is dependent on some agenda.

We're going to reopen businesses and the economy, but it's not likely to be pretty. We're going to get used to (and accept) deaths as the price we have to pay. We're going to be fighting this thing for a long, long time unless we get a miracle out of the medical and scientific communities.

We're likely to have a basketball season. Even with every measure taken to protect players, we're likely to see some mortality among D1 players. Instead of 10K in CKA being a selllout, 1,500 might be the maximum capacity.

We're going to have to be ready (and able) to adjust to a new reality. We're in the process of adapting to a new definition of "an acceptable number of deaths".

Really you think D! players are going to die form this? That is borderline ridiculous. I don't think this will be an issue "for a long, long time". Once people regain some of their civil liberties, this disease is so contagious that most of the population will contract it fairly quickly, with most not even knowing they have had it.

[jdmee]

...

I'm not trying to work some political agenda. I'm not slanting my data for any bias. I'm not part of the mainstream media conspiracy to overstate things to make Trump look bad. I'm just looking at the data and seeing some opinions in this thread that do not reflect what the data is showing at this time.

One thing to note, You are comparing opinions from 2 1/2 - 3 months ago to "data at this time."

[pie n eye]

Aargh As of today, the first confirmed case of Covid-19 in the US was on Feb 6 in CA. The person had no significant travel history so the assumption is they were infected through community spread. It takes about two or three weeks for Covid to kill someone which means the person who died on Feb 6 was likely infected sometime in mid January.

A French patient retroactively tested positive for Covid on 12/27/2019. The man had not traveled but his wife, who recently also had been ill, works at a supermarket where she regularly interacts with passengers from the nearby airport.

There are direct flights from Wuhan to New York, LA, and San Fran. Many other countries, such as France, fly direct to cities in the US.

The first shelter in place order in the US was San Fransisco on March 16.

Following those pieces of information it’s possible that we had unchecked community spread of the virus for three months before we took any mitigating action.

All of this is to say that the CFR should be taken with a grain of salt because we don’t know how many have actually been infected.

We’re still learning about the virus but we know way more than we did in January of 2020. It is very dangerous no doubt and we should take it seriously.

With smart planning, necessary precautions, and diligence it seems to me that it should be possible to avoid the kind of death tolls we’ve seen so far while also strategically lifting the stay at home orders.

Maybe not, though. Only time will tell.