Future?

[ArtVandalay]

One thing to keep in mind when predicting next season is we don't even know what our conference schedule will look like. Two vs ECU, Tulane, UConn and SMU helps the record more than two vs Houston, Cincy, Temple and UCF.

I am in the camp of we'll be a better team, not sure how much our record improves if we get the top half of the league twice instead of the bottom.

[WuDrWu]

No doubt, a full round robin this season is probably 11-11 at best (Houston here, Temple there, UCF there, USF here). So many variables, as always, but we are positioned to move forward next year, even with losing Duff and SHJ. If any of the newcomers can add immediate value, then we can get a lot better. But, again, lots of variables.

[WSUwatcher]

I really don't want any of these guys to transfer out.

Historically, players who transfer out under Marshall have some talent and capabilities that we'd like to see displayed for WSU; it's just that someone is in front of them, or they need to mature or be willing to do what Marshall requires -- not always an easy adjustment or task -- or their successor is a better fit or has a higher upside. Think back to Corey Henderson, who fit better with what was asked of him at Tulsa and was a very good player (and darn near a Shocker killer) for them, or Rian Holland, who was an excellent player and scorer at Mercer. Probably both were better at their second homes than they would have been at WSU.

With that in mind, I really don't worry much about what's being lost when someone leaves; I just trust Marshall to see a potential roster improvement and then make it happen with whoever comes in instead. I won't speculate about specific players who may or may not be back next year or their games; I don't do that. But as I look at who is still being actively recruited, I can certainly see how Marshall might think he has an upgrade available by landing one or more of the names we've heard.

[Dan]

The funny thing is, part of the reason they are more effective at a new school is that they get an opportunity to sit out a year to mature and work on their game. They don’t want to redshirt at WSU but they are willing to sit out a transfer year.

[Shocktoberfest]

I’m starting to get good vibes about Sherfield Lansing here.

[WSUwatcher]

Watch those typos, Shocktober. Mike Lansing played baseball at WSU, not basketball; plus, Sherfield doesn't look anything like him.

[BOBB]

Yes, have some.

Top 10 movie line of all time.

And “Yes. Have Some.”

[ShockAzs]

If you look at the history of how Marshall develops a player (using KenPom rating)


4 Year Players Improvement
Frosh-Soph: +7.4%
Soph-Jr: +3.9%
Jr-Sr: -0.2%

Juco Transfers
They are what they are (+0.4%). Though u can divide them up into 2 groups - those that get better, those who get worse.

9 players Offensive rating decreased (-5.8%)
8 players Offensive rating increased (+7.9%)

Offensive Projections

2019: 105.7

2020: 107.6. (If JE be the +10% improvement type guy then you could add +1)
2021: 115.1
2022: 114.9

Historically, the Defensive improvement averages are -2.7%, best year improvement of -5.2% was achieved (Fred/Ron senior year).

Defensive Projections

2019: 99.7 (93rd)

2020: 97.5 (56th)
2021: 95.6 (37th)
2022: 93.7 (25th)

AdjEM
2019: +60 (Ranked 105)

2020: 10.1 (Ranked 68) [if JE is the +10%, WSU could be as high as 11.1 (Ranked 61st)
2021: 19.5 (Ranked 25)
2022: 21.2 (Ranked 17)

Conclusions

WSU is not likely to be an NCAA tournament team until 2021 if historical patterns are followed.

WSU offensively only projects to be +2.8% better next year (loss of McDuffy tempers the improvements). This projection includes Teddy's possible contribution and does not account for any recruits contributions.

The WSU defensive rating of 99.7, actually the 4th worst in the Marshall ERA. If WSU is to exceed these expectations, I think there is where you will need to see the biggest improvement. To be a Top 40 team requires AdjEM of ~ +16.0.

No it doesn't help, we're going to the dance next year, so it's a moot point.

[WSUwatcher]

Pretty much on target about the KenPom top 40; the current #40 is NC State at +15.71.

By the way, WSU has already worked its defensive rating down to 98.5, and definitely seems to be trending in the right direction for possible further improvement. It's actually more than halfway to your 2020 projection already. Plus, another year for this season's newbies of playing together and continuing to master team defense in the Marshall style should only help that even more.

[Wooglin]

Man, next year is going to be fun. IMO Teddy is more suited to be the top dawg than McDuffie. McDuffie should be a Robin, not a Batman. Losing SHJ is a wash in my book. There have been 3-5 games this year we have won because of SHJ's play. There has also been 3-5 games we have lost because of his play...

Burton, Dennis, and Echenique have all proven to be impact players at the ACC level. Can't wait to see them with a full season in the program under their belts.

Stevenson and Midtgaard have both shown flashes. They both have the potential to be impact players, but have a little more question marks than the aforementioned returners. Worst case scenario they are 2 solid depth pieces on next season's roster.

I don't feel we have seen enough of Udeze or Chandler to properly speculate. Both look to have huge strengths and glaring weakness'. Would like to see Udeze RS next year, mainly to lighten that senior class.

Torres and Brown are both interesting cases. You would think we would have seen more of Brown since he has a full year in the system. He appears to have the athleticism and size to make it in the AAC, but lacking in skills. Torres clearly is the best pure pg on the team, but his shooting is such a liability. Will be interesting to see what happens with these 2 this off-season.

Next year we should bare minimum have 4 proven impact guys (Allen, Burton, Dennis, and Echenique) and 2 depth pieces with the potential to be more ( Midtgaard and Stevenson). Add in the (at least) 3 incoming new players and we should have a solid rotation of proven guys and youth. If any 1 of the freshmen step up in a big way we have the potential to be a very good team. Future is bright my friends.

Excellent assessment!

[Wooglin]

Not sure I can find anything to disagree with in this post. One thing I would like to know though. We all talk a lot about how we’d like for a returning player to take a redshirt year... but how often does that actually happen? You’ll all have to forgive my ignorance on this, but I’m just not sure I’ve ever really seen it happen. I know juco transfers will occasionally take a red shirt season, but that’s definitely not an ideal situation. Can anyone think of an example where this has actually happened?

[BOBB]

Maybe Udeze could take Wessel's scholllie and Evan can just walk on next year?

[Shock Top]

How many times does it have to be said.... Evan Wessel is not giving up his scholarship!!!

[pinstripers]

We probably add two studs before fall.

[wufan]

We probably add two studs before fall.

If we’re going to add 2, give me Sherfield and either Christian Brown or Galen Alexander.

Alexander or Brown would REALLY shore up the PF spot and allow tons of switching between the 2/3/4.

[Shock Top]

Sherfield and Alexander would be great.

Alexander helps separate the classes a little more as well.

[Aargh]

Wessel is not giving up his scholarship, but he's making enough money now that he's going to endow a scholarship, available to any WSU student that is 6'8" or taller, can hit 70% of unguarded shots from 20' or more from the basket, and can dribble a basketball the length of the court in less than 5 seconds.

Evan feels those attributes are close enough to his and he's proud of the success in life he's had. He just wants to make the opportunities he's found available to others with similar attributes to his own.

Let it be clearly noted that this scholarship is available to ANY Wichita State student and is in no way related to the basketball program or limited only to basketball players. He's basing it on a model program he found in a similar area at North Carolina.

[WSUwatcher]

But will they have to go to class, or can they "study" online?

[SB Shock]

No it doesn't help, we're going to the dance next year, so it's a moot point.

If they are going to be that good next year - then why not this year......WIN THE AAC tournament and keep the streak alive.

I will actually conduct an iteration of the analysis once the season is finished. And maybe run some iterations for partial parts of the season to better project what they might look like to start next season.

[WstateU]

True, at this point in the season, we don’t have any freshman or first year players. Let’s win the whole f-in thing!

[ShockBand]

If they are going to be that good next year - then why not this year......WIN THE AAC tournament and keep the streak alive.

I will actually conduct an iteration of the analysis once the season is finished. And maybe run some iterations for partial parts of the season to better project what they might look like to start next season.

[ShockTalk]

Thought I would put this here rather than in the Tulane game thread.

We've noticed a big swing this season in posters' positions of certain players (if not most at one time or another) and as to whether they would return or even if the poster preferred they not return. Jamie and Dexter have been immune to all of this while Erik (until recently) and Mo (due to injury) have been talked about very little.

A couple of players have had their staunch backers in spite of fairly loud criticism only to win over the masses such as Asbjorn and Jamarius ( he even has an appreciation thread now).

Rod does seem to be a player without a position. One who may likely get buried behind current and newer players as time goes by. However, it should not go unnoticed that he has played in all but 1 game this year and has averaged almost 8 minutes per game.

Isaiah has bounced all over the map this year. It has looked like 2 or 3 times he would not be back (due to Marshall not playing him). However, most now (I think) agree that he has a lot of potential and that a big man usually takes more time to "grow" as a player. He has had numerous good games in limited minutes, even at Cincinnati. In his last 3 games, he's only played a total of 29 minutes, but has gone 6-8 FG, 1-2 3pt, 15 points, 8 rebounds, and a block. That's a pretty good single game line in total.

Lastly, if you haven't guessed, Ricky. He has played in all 30 games, averaged 16.4 minutes per game, is 3rd in assists, leads in assists per minute played, by far, has the best A/T ratio at 2.7/1, and averaged only 1 TO per game. That's really good when you consider that 13 of his 31 TOs came in just 2 games in the non-con. Maybe, more importantly, one should also consider the last play of our last game. HCGM took Jamarius out and put Ricky in. RT had the confidence of our coach to make the best decision, most accurate pass, at a critical time, without letting the ref count cause a turnover and he succeeded. Ricky may leave, but I feel it would be on his own choosing.

[ShockTalk]

Actually,@Bluzrover, I seldom watch the Shocks on TV during the regular season. I can be a good boy at our home games, but I can't say the same at home. Never broke a TV and I want to keep it that way. I listen on radio or just follow the play-by-play on the computer while also on SN. You'll notice I don't post much during the away games as well (and for good reason).
I've actually liked IBPC all season and have been hyped about his potential. Him not playing at times, just like Shaq, bothered me because I wanted him to get his act together. It's also been routinely discussed on SN throughout the years, that big men just don't develop as fast as other positions. It basically took Paul Miller until his senior season to really "get it". For whatever reason, posters have had been less tolerant of the underclassmen big men this year.

[WSUwatcher]

Good point about Torres at the end against Tulane, ST. I think it's no coincidence that Marshall had his best passer and distributor in to trigger that play; and he nailed it, just as Dexter did.

[1979Shocker]

I think it also had a lot to do with Marshall not wanting or needing RT receiving a pass, not because he's a bad outside shooter, but because he would have a harder time getting a shot off at his height.

[Bluzrover]

I think the offseason is going to be interesting because I just don't really know that I want any of the current crop of young players to go anywhere. But I'm torn as I certainly would love to see Gregg add another high level recruit to the roster. I just don't know who, at this point, is really likely to leave on his own volition. But it does happen and I guess we'll have to wait a few weeks, if not months, before we learn who that might be.