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"NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: Are mid-majors going to get hosed?" - ESPN
By John Gasaway, ESPN Insider
Posted: Feb 28, 2019
"Nevada has been ranked in the top 15 for the entire season, Buffalo has lurked smack in the middle of the projected field for weeks now, Wofford is appearing in some mock brackets as a No. 8 seed, and the cool bracket-making kids these days are big believers in the likes of Utah State and Belmont.Given all that, how can 2019 possibly be in danger of offering a bad Selection Sunday for mid-majors?
Also, Gonzaga, however you choose to classify Mark Few's program, is, as always, Gonzaga.
It's true Bubble Watch can't see the future, nor peer into the furtive recesses of the preferences held by the individuals on the men's basketball committee. But one thing Bubble Watch can do is count. Here's where we are in terms of bids and mid-majors in 2019.
The mock-bracket consensus is that perhaps 37 bids will be absorbed by just the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. Throw in what's likely to be at least a three-bid American (and possibly four bids), and you're already up to 40 invites.
Naturally, there's basketball left to be played, and there's no guarantee these seven conferences will actually secure that many bids. But just for the sake of discussion, let's consider these numbers: 40 bids for seven leagues, meaning, of course, 33 at-large spots going to those conferences.
As a dedicated reader of the Watch, you know there are just 36 total at-large slots available. In this scenario, then, there would be just three at-large bids for the 25 conferences below the top seven.
Needless to say, the committee will make room in the bracket for Nevada, Buffalo and, one presumes, Wofford, even if all of the above were to fail to win their conference tournaments. But that's kind of the point, and indeed that's where we've been now for the past four brackets.
Increasingly, the only way for mid-majors to increase their numbers in the field of 68 is through upsets in conference tournaments. A year ago, the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 both ended up having bid thieves, and San Diego State and Davidson joined league rivals Nevada and Rhode Island, respectively, in the field of 68.
In theory, a mid-major bid thief might be stealing a spot from a fellow mid-major, but the post-2014 math here has tended to work in the other direction. A mid-major bid thief is more likely to take an invite away from a middle-of-the-pack team in a major conference.
No, it wasn't always like this. As recently as 2014, the six major conferences sent "just" 32 teams (counting automatic bids) into the NCAA tournament. Every year since then, however, that number's been in the mid-to-high 30s, peaking at 38 in 2017.
Bid thievery in the MW and A-10 helped drive that figure "down" to 37 last year -- the same number, to repeat, that mock brackets are forecasting for major-conference bids in 2019. In short, this is why Nevada, Buffalo and Wofford should all be recognized as great stories. The Wolf Pack, Bulls and Terriers are all pushing against what appears to be a strong and continuing trend...."
By John Gasaway, ESPN Insider
Posted: Feb 28, 2019
"Nevada has been ranked in the top 15 for the entire season, Buffalo has lurked smack in the middle of the projected field for weeks now, Wofford is appearing in some mock brackets as a No. 8 seed, and the cool bracket-making kids these days are big believers in the likes of Utah State and Belmont.Given all that, how can 2019 possibly be in danger of offering a bad Selection Sunday for mid-majors?
Also, Gonzaga, however you choose to classify Mark Few's program, is, as always, Gonzaga.
It's true Bubble Watch can't see the future, nor peer into the furtive recesses of the preferences held by the individuals on the men's basketball committee. But one thing Bubble Watch can do is count. Here's where we are in terms of bids and mid-majors in 2019.
The mock-bracket consensus is that perhaps 37 bids will be absorbed by just the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC. Throw in what's likely to be at least a three-bid American (and possibly four bids), and you're already up to 40 invites.
Naturally, there's basketball left to be played, and there's no guarantee these seven conferences will actually secure that many bids. But just for the sake of discussion, let's consider these numbers: 40 bids for seven leagues, meaning, of course, 33 at-large spots going to those conferences.
As a dedicated reader of the Watch, you know there are just 36 total at-large slots available. In this scenario, then, there would be just three at-large bids for the 25 conferences below the top seven.
Needless to say, the committee will make room in the bracket for Nevada, Buffalo and, one presumes, Wofford, even if all of the above were to fail to win their conference tournaments. But that's kind of the point, and indeed that's where we've been now for the past four brackets.
Increasingly, the only way for mid-majors to increase their numbers in the field of 68 is through upsets in conference tournaments. A year ago, the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 both ended up having bid thieves, and San Diego State and Davidson joined league rivals Nevada and Rhode Island, respectively, in the field of 68.
In theory, a mid-major bid thief might be stealing a spot from a fellow mid-major, but the post-2014 math here has tended to work in the other direction. A mid-major bid thief is more likely to take an invite away from a middle-of-the-pack team in a major conference.
No, it wasn't always like this. As recently as 2014, the six major conferences sent "just" 32 teams (counting automatic bids) into the NCAA tournament. Every year since then, however, that number's been in the mid-to-high 30s, peaking at 38 in 2017.
Bid thievery in the MW and A-10 helped drive that figure "down" to 37 last year -- the same number, to repeat, that mock brackets are forecasting for major-conference bids in 2019. In short, this is why Nevada, Buffalo and Wofford should all be recognized as great stories. The Wolf Pack, Bulls and Terriers are all pushing against what appears to be a strong and continuing trend...."
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