2018-19 National Rankings

[WuShock Reaper]

"ESPN's BPI tabs Kansas, Gonzaga as best teams in nation" - ESPN

By Paul Sabin and Seth Walder
Posted: July 29, 2018

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas.../_/id/24199936/kansas-jayhawks-gonzaga-bulldogs-lead-espn-college-basketball-bpi-2018

:...For the unfamiliar, an explanation of how BPI operates can be found here, but the Cliffs Notes version is that it bases its preseason ratings on four factors:

· Quantity of experience on roster.

· Quality of that experience.

· Recruiting rankings for incoming freshmen, with an extra emphasis on five-stars.

· Coach's past performance....

The average BPI of teams in the Pac-12 is seventh best among conferences. In fact, the average BPI of teams in the Pac-12 (2.3) more closely aligns with the American (2.6), Atlantic 10 (1.8), West Coast (1.8) and Mountain West (1.8) conferences than it does with the Big 12 (6.8), Big Ten (6.1), ACC (5.9), SEC (5.6) and Big East (5.2) conferences....

#30 - Cincinnati
#44 - Temple
#48 - Houston
#52 - Central Florida
#56 - SMU
#83 - Wichita State..."

[C0|dB|00ded]

LOL!


T


...:cool:

[WuShock Reaper]

"AAC preseason power rankings" - ESPN

Jeff Borzello, ESPN Staff Writer
Posted: 10/15/18, 8:07 AM CT

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/24952404/college-basketball-american-athletic-conference-preseason-power-rankings

"One season after the American Athletic Conference featured three top-25-caliber teams, the league doesn't have a single basketball team considered a lock for the NCAA tournament heading into 2018-19. In fact, there's a chance the American will be a one-bid league come March.

Here's the fun part, though. The conference is absolutely wide open and storylines abound. There's no clear favorite, as Wichita State and Cincinnati saw significant personnel losses, and Houston lost arguably the best player in the league. There were headline-making coaching changes in the offseason, with Penny Hardaway taking over at Memphis and Dan Hurley leaving Rhode Island for UConn. While the national relevance will take a hit with the usual suspects down from the past few seasons, the league is balanced and will feature one of the best title races in the country.

1. UCF Knights:
2. Houston Cougars:
3. Cincinnati Bearcats:
4. UConn Huskies:
5. Temple Owls:
6. Wichita State Shockers: Even having the Shockers this low seems strange, but on paper, Wichita State is a clear bottom-third team. It's a testament to Gregg Marshall's consistent success that the Shockers are still inside the top six of the league. Their top four scorers are gone from last season, including Landry Shamet. The key to not falling off too far will be Markis McDuffie, who was one of the best players in the Missouri Valley two seasons ago but struggled with injuries last season. A slew of newcomers will have to make an impact, led by junior college guard Ricky Torres.
7. SMU Mustangs:
8. Memphis Tigers:
9. Tulsa Golden Hurricane:
10. Tulane Green Wave:
11. East Carolina Pirates:
12. South Florida Bulls:..."

[WuShock Reaper]

"AAC Preview: Several Teams Have the Talent to Join Cincinnati and Houston at the Top" - Sports Illustrated

By JAKE FISCHER
Posted: October 15, 2018

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/10/15/american-aac-preview-predictions-cincinnati-ucf-houston

As part of SI.com's preview of the 2018–19 college basketball season, we're breaking down each of the seven major conferences, plus the best of the rest. Our predicted order of finish for each league is drawn from our master 1–353 rankings, the full list of which will be revealed later this month. First up for our conference previews is the AAC, complete with our analyst's breakdowns of each team and anonymous scouting takes from coaches and assistants around the league.

THE BIG PICTURE
After the AAC sent three programs dancing a season ago, the conference appears poised for another strong season. Cincinnati ran the league from wire-to-wire in 2017–18, and despite graduating some top talent and losing Jacob Evans to the NBA, Mick Cronin’s program remains a front-runner for the conference crown. UCF and colossal center Tacko Fall will rival Cincy’s defensive prowess, but the Knights also boast some offensive firepower on the perimeter—and everyone’s finally healthy. Houston paces the league in terms of scoring, and despite the graduation of offensive centerpiece Rob Gray, the Cougars and head coach Kelvin Sampson boast the talent to once again reach the Big Dance.
...
Outside of the league’s top three lurk formidable challengers as well. New UConn head coach Dan Hurley has an experienced, guard-heavy program that could do some damage, and not only within the conference. In longtime coach Fran Dunphy's swan song, Temple also harbors a talented, do-it-all backcourt. And as always, Gregg Marshall and Wichita State, despite losing almost their entire lineup from last year’s preseason top-10 team, have the best home court advantage in the league and a key returning senior to contend as well.

CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: JALEN ADAMS, UCONN

NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR: DEJON JARREAU, HOUSTON

DARK HORSE TEAM TO WIN THE CONFERENCE: UCONN

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
What you need to know about each team in the AAC, plus a brief scouting report from an anonymous opposing coach.

1. Cincinnati Bearcats:...
2. .UCF Knights:...
3. Houston Cougars:..
4. Temple Owls:...
5. UConn Huskies:...
6. Wichita State Shockers: If Gregg Marshall hopes to compete in 2018–19, he’ll need senior forward Markis McDuffie to recapture his offensive prowess of ’16–17, when he led the Shockers in scoring. Juco All-American Ricky Torres, who averaged 17.2 points and 8.1 assists per night at Missouri State-West Plains, will be a key to replacing Landry Shamet in the backcourt.

Scout's Take: Gregg Marshall has proven that he can win. They have the best home court advantage in our conference. We played there last year and their roof was going to f------ explode. I haven’t seen a crowd in our league like that. Released their highly recruited point guard so he can go to Memphis. I wish I can sit in on one of their practices so I can see how they look. They do things that win you games. They want to sit down and play defense and control the glass. That can win you a game. They’ll definitely finish in the top half of the league. McDuffie’s now going to be featured. Shooting the ball, he didn’t put up many threes. He’s obviously a bigger guy that likes to slash. If he can stretch his range and have people respect his jump shot, everything else offensively will open up for him.

7. Memphis Tigers:...
8. SMU Mustangs:...
9. Tulsa Golden Hurricane:
10. Tulane Green Wave:
11. East Carolina Pirates:
12. South Florida Bulls:..."

[WuShock Reaper]

2019 Pomeroy College Basketball Rating - PRESEASON

https://kenpom.com/

37. SMU
44. Cincinnati
45. Houston
70. UCF
72. Wichita St.
82. Temple
102. Connecticut
107. Memphis
114.Tulsa
189. Tulane
279. East Carolina
287. South Florida

[AZ Shocker]

How does this work again??? I'm always confused how a statistical ranking can be assessed to teams before any games are played. Does Kenpom simply take the rankings from the previous season and apply it to the new season just to start with something? Serious question.

[SB Shock]

How does this work again??? I'm always confused how a statistical ranking can be assessed to teams before any games are played. Does Kenpom simply take the rankings from the previous season and apply it to the new season just to start with something? Serious question.

He based it on the following:

1. Regression of the past 9 seasons (programs that have been historically good, in general, will be good and vice versa)
2. Adjustments for returning players
3. Adjustments for transfers
4. Considers players hurt last season and who are returning
5. Considers coaching changes
6. Consider conference affiliations

There are probably other considerations (I assume like in WSU case since we have so few returners he put in a generic "replacement level" type player.

In past analysis of his predictions here was his error breakdown on wins. In general his average win prediction error in the 2.15 to 2.25 ish range.

Wing Error - Occurences
9 - 0
8 - 1
7 - 3
6 - 4
5 - 18
4 - 49
3 - 55
2 - 75
1 - 96
0 - 49

[AZ Shocker]

Cool. Thanks SB Shock! I am officially edumacated now. :)

[FadedCrown]

18-10 Projected record per KenPom.

Projected Losses (These add up to 7): vs. Providence (Md.), @ Oklahoma, @ Memphis, @ Houston, @ UConn, @ Cincinnati and @ SMU.

5 American road losses, we need the road Shockers to prevail once again.

18 wins (not including 2nd and 3rd round games) is not going to get you to the promised land. Maybe we gel near the end of the conf, but will it still be enough? Who knows.

How many days till November 6th? (Oh yea Election Night.)

[WuShock Reaper]

Here are some other statistics from KenPom’s Preseason rankings:

https://kenpom.com/

1. The cut line for the NCAA Tourney is about a rank of #45 or better for an “At-Large Bid”.
2. No Conference, outside the top 7, will get more than one bid this season.
3. The PAC 12, even though ranked above the American Athletic (AAC), should only receive one bid.

Conference	Rank	NCAA	% of
ACC	1st	8	11.8%
B10	2nd	10	14.7%
SEC	3rd	7	10.3%
B12	4th	8	11.8%
Big East	5th	5	7.4%
PAC 12	6th	1	1.5%
American	7th	3	4.4%
Atlantic 10	8th	1	1.5%
West Coast	9th	1	1.5%
Mt, West	10th	1	1.5%
All Others	---	23	33.8%
	Total	68

[im4wsu]

KenPom's projections for WSU.

	% win <50	WSU ppg	Opp ppg	Possessions
28 games	7	77.9	71.4	71.9
15 Home	0	78.3	70	71.7
13 not-home	7	77.3	73	72.2

[im4wsu]

AAC projected standings from KenPom

SMU	0-0	0-0	12-6
Cincinnati	0-0	0-0	12-6
Houston	0-0	0-0	12-6
UCF	0-0	0-0	11-7
Wichita St.	0-0	0-0	11-7
Temple	0-0	0-0	10-8
Connecticut	0-0	0-0	9-9
Memphis	0-0	0-0	9-9
Tulsa	0-0	0-0	9-9
Tulane	0-0	0-0	6-12
East Carolina	0-0	0-0	4-14
South Florida	0-0	0-0	3-15

[FlyingWheat]

One game out of first place would be a pretty good result

[FadedCrown]

FlyingWheat Yeah, but in this scenario there is a chance we have to play the 1st round, which I and hopefully you guys want to avoid.

[WuShock Reaper]

AP Preseason Rankings (10/22/18)

https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll

Teams of interest:
#15 - Virginia Tech (630 points) Charleston Classic Tourney
#24 - Purdue (170 points) Charleston Classic Tourney
#34 - Cincinnati (21 points)
#35 - UCF (15 points)
#35 - Alabama (15 Points) Charleston Classic Tourney
#48 - Providence (2 Points)
#50 - Davidson (1 Point) Charleston Classic Tourney

[SB Shock]

Some good opportunities for WSU to make an at-large resume.

[ShockerFever]

When’s the last time we haven’t received a single vote in the preseason poll?

[Kel Varnsen]

When’s the last time we haven’t received a single vote in the preseason poll?

Based on ESPN.com it's 09-10, which sounds about right. We were effectively preseason #32 in 2010-2011.