Shox D Didn't Get Worse

[Aargh]

Opponents' O got better.

The Valley was filled with, let's call them corn-fed farm boys from Iowa who could nail 3's. There was Paris Lee, who could get to the hoop, but wasn't someone who had to be guarded real close on the perimeter.

There wasn't much film from last year that showed the weakness of the Shox D. Trae Young provided that film this year. The AAC is filled with guards who can penetrate and can hit from 3. It's also filled with 3's and 4's who can hit jumpers and drive to the hoop.

Once opponents figured out they could drive past our perimeter D, the D was doomed. The D didn't get worse, it got exposed. It's a little like SHJ. Against Arkansas State, he was awesome. Against better competition, he was exposed.

The knock on Shamet from NBA scouts is that he can't guard the perimeter. Reaves and Frankamp aren't quick enough to cover the perimeter guys who drive in the AAC. Brown isn't an elite defender against players with handles who are quicker than he is. He didn't run into any of those (other than possibly Lee) in the Valley.

A caller to the post-game show went on and on about why the Shox never pressure opposing guards beyond the 3-point line like opponents pressure WSU's guards deep. The answer is pretty simple. If WSU's perimeter guards apply pressure deep, opponents will drive past them into the lane and then the big guys get into foul problems. Leave perimeter guys uncovered out to 25' or so in the AAC and they hit 3's like they're layup drills. WSU's guards get pressured deep because they aren't threats to drive into the paint.

The Shox D faced a decision. Give up points in the paint and get post players (Morris) into foul trouble, or cheat perimeter defenders into the lane to slow down penetration and leave perimeter players unguarded. The choice was sort of like choosing which you'd rather have bite you, an alligator or a crocodile.

[champions5]

It’s an interesting idea but mostly incorrect. KenPom takes into account the strength of opponents, and your analysis doesn’t account for why the defense was fine in NCAA tournament games and why it was fine in out of conference games instead of getting exposed by teams such as South Dakota State.

[newshock1234]

You could tell in the Non con against "lesser" opponent that our D isnt as strong as it was last year

[Shockm]

In order for you to pressure the other team, you need strong, physical guards. Quickness is a part of it, but not as important as how lean, skinny, and weak our guards are compared to other teams. If you look just a couple of years ago, Ron, Fred, and Tekele were all great defenders. None of them were super quick(they were quick but not super), but all of them were great anticipators, great at pushing the other players off of their desired paths, quick hands, strong enough to physically slow down the offensive players first step,strong enough to fight on the upper side of picks, etc. They were very good at stealing the ball too. And they are still good enough on the defensive end to be effective in the NBA (well at least Ron and Fred are). Both Cincy and Houston are stronger than we are in physical games, our guards struggle.

[SHOCKvalue]

Not sure I’ve ever heard anyone call today’s Landry “weak”, “skinny”, and “lean”. Not sure NBA scouts would agree at all. Kid has built himself into a beast, much like Baker did.

Same goes for Keyser when fills a guard position, but he obviously has a ways to go in other areas.

Fits SHJ and Reeves to a degree, but they’re works in-progress.

[ShockCrazy]

It’s an interesting idea but mostly incorrect. KenPom takes into account the strength of opponents, and your analysis doesn’t account for why the defense was fine in NCAA tournament games and why it was fine in out of conference games instead of getting exposed by teams such as South Dakota State.

That's a little bit of a oversimplification on kenpom, sure it adjusts, but it is a bit of guess work. I can't find the link right now but Taylor did an article not to long ago pointing out that our defense is performing at a similar level as it has in the past when you look a quality opponents. Do I think our defense is worse that it was in the past? Maybe a bit, mostly because we don't have anyone who can guard PGs like Fred and Ron could, but I think it's also over stated.

[ShockerFever]

It’s an interesting idea but mostly incorrect. KenPom takes into account the strength of opponents, and your analysis doesn’t account for why the defense was fine in NCAA tournament games and why it was fine in out of conference games instead of getting exposed by teams such as South Dakota State.

South Dakota State is a damn good team and a high-level offensive team.

Arkansas State or FGCU would've been a better example.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

This thread is well intentioned, fan based, ignorance.

Yes the D is much worse. Not even close

[asiseeit]

We have started mixing in zone occasionally which I have been a proponent of considering the
fact our guards, collectively, are not as athletic or physically strong/quick as opponents guards.
In addition, a zone allows our big guys to hang back closer to the basket with their backs to it
and play help defense against penetraters. I think a 3-2 or 2-1-2 suits us the best. Also, switching
defenses makes the other team recognize and adjust. As the game proceeds you go more with
the defense that is working the best more than the other.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Games vs offenses ranked in the bottom half of D1,
Opponents held under 60 pts

2017
14
15

2018
8
2

End of story.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

WSU is averaging 0.9 more possessions per game this year compared to last. That accounts for about 1 extra point per game.

This isn’t a tempo issue. It’s a defense got way worse issue.

[ShockCrazy]

Come on you know know better. Looking at season average possessions with in the context of a few games is silly. Yes possessions are only marginally up this year, but variance this year is massive. For example we've played multiple games over 80+ possessions in regulation this year, we played 0 last year. We've played multiple games below 62 possessions this year, we played none past year.

[Rlh04d]

I didn't say it was a tempo issue. I agree with your point, I just fundamentally disagree with the way you choose to argue it. You could have just as easily noted points per possession as total points, yet points per possession would have far more accurately made your point.

[CBB_Fan]

In 2016, we held a Utah team with 2 future NBA players to 50 points. In 2018, we held the 11th best Sun Belt team to 50 points in a half. And don't simplify it by saying Ron and Fred made all the difference. Zach Brown and Shaquille Morris started both games. Conner, Markis, Kelly, and Nurger got 57 minutes against Utah and 55 minutes against Arkansas State (Conner was sick). If it was simply a matter of exposing us, teams would have ignored Baker and Van Vleet and exploited the weak points in our defense by attacking all the players currently on our roster; we would have been the 50th best defense, not the best.

Our defense is #106 now, despite sharing 7 members with a team that with that #1 defense. That doesn't happen without an actual drop in play. We held 15 opponents to less than 60 points last season, we've held three opponents to less than 60 points this season. And to counter the idea that this was just a matter of beating up the MVC, if we look at just A-level games we held opponents to 67 PPG last season and 73 PPG this season. That's 6 points worse against the same type of quality competition, despite essentially being the same team year over year.

I'm afraid our schemes and rotations have been part of the problem. It isn't just a personnel issue or playing better guards.

[Rlh04d]

Points per possession > points.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

And WSU’s pps defense this year stinks. Your point?

[Rlh04d]

My point is that including total points as an argument, almost ever, is simply lazy. It is a vastly inferior stat to be used in this context. Stop glancing at box scores and take a moment to grab the more effective stat for your point. The point isn't wrong; the way it is being argued is lazy. I generally respect your point of view and expect a higher quality of argument from you.

If someone was arguing team strength based on RPI rankings with you, you would rightly recommend KenPom. It's a superior tool for the job. Correlation between a team's RPI and KenPom ratings wouldn't justify using the lesser rating system.

[ShockerFever]

In 2016, we held a Utah team with 2 future NBA players to 50 points. In 2018, we held the 11th best Sun Belt team to 50 points in a half. And don't simplify it by saying Ron and Fred made all the difference. Zach Brown and Shaquille Morris started both games. Conner, Markis, Kelly, and Nurger got 57 minutes against Utah and 55 minutes against Arkansas State (Conner was sick). If it was simply a matter of exposing us, teams would have ignored Baker and Van Vleet and exploited the weak points in our defense by attacking all the players currently on our roster; we would have been the 50th best defense, not the best.

Our defense is #106 now, despite sharing 7 members with a team that with that #1 defense. That doesn't happen without an actual drop in play. We held 15 opponents to less than 60 points last season, we've held three opponents to less than 60 points this season. And to counter the idea that this was just a matter of beating up the MVC, if we look at just A-level games we held opponents to 67 PPG last season and 73 PPG this season. That's 6 points worse against the same type of quality competition, despite essentially being the same team year over year.

I'm afraid our schemes and rotations have been part of the problem. It isn't just a personnel issue or playing better guards.

Hey homie, where were you at a couple weeks ago?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

This year, WSU’s season low is holding opponents to 57 (x2)

Last year, WSU met or exceeded that mark 12 times.
WSU held 7 opponents under 50.
WSU held 1 opponent under 40.

This debate is one sided.

[Rlh04d]

You're too smart to not be using points per possession here.

[60Shock]

When did the rules change that a Houston player can wrap his arms completely around a Shocker player directly in front of a Ref (which was clearly viewed on TV) and the Ref doesn't call a foul, and the TV crew does not even comment.on it? Houston mugged our guys throughout the game and got away with it. And clearly during the last 20 seconds.

This was a team loss and not the fault of any one or more of our players. But, to advance very far in the NCAAT, we need our best shooters confident that when they have a clear open shot, whether it be a two or a three pointer, they need to shoot it with confidence.

[Rlh04d]

"Houston mugged our guys throughout the game and got away with it."

How many Houston players fouled out? How many were one more dish to Shaq from joining them?

Manbun mugged our players and got away with it. No one else, on either team, did, beyond head-scratching inconsistencies against both sides.

[CBB_Fan]

Hey homie, where were you at a couple weeks ago?

Before posting, maybe consider the following question:

"Am I addressing anything to do with basketball?"

If not, don't post it in a basketball forum.

[Shockm]

In 2016, we held a Utah team with 2 future NBA players to 50 points. In 2018, we held the 11th best Sun Belt team to 50 points in a half. And don't simplify it by saying Ron and Fred made all the difference. Zach Brown and Shaquille Morris started both games. Conner, Markis, Kelly, and Nurger got 57 minutes against Utah and 55 minutes against Arkansas State (Conner was sick). If it was simply a matter of exposing us, teams would have ignored Baker and Van Vleet and exploited the weak points in our defense by attacking all the players currently on our roster; we would have been the 50th best defense, not the best.

Our defense is #106 now, despite sharing 7 members with a team that with that #1 defense. That doesn't happen without an actual drop in play. We held 15 opponents to less than 60 points last season, we've held three opponents to less than 60 points this season. And to counter the idea that this was just a matter of beating up the MVC, if we look at just A-level games we held opponents to 67 PPG last season and 73 PPG this season. That's 6 points worse against the same type of quality competition, despite essentially being the same team year over year.

I'm afraid our schemes and rotations have been part of the problem. It isn't just a personnel issue or playing better guards.

If you've been watching this year, our schemes and rotations (except for McDuffie being hurt so replaced by Kelly) haven't changed very much from last year. I guess Shaq's played more because he's not been in foul trouble.