Shox D Didn't Get Worse

[im4wsu]

If you've been watching this year, our schemes and rotations (except for McDuffie being hurt so replaced by Kelly) haven't changed very much from last year. I guess Shaq's played more because he's not been in foul trouble.

Until he looked and breathed yesterday!

[shockerfan]

I had some similar thoughts yesterday as well regarding the defense. While Kenpom and other metrics may take strength of schedule into consideration, what it can't take into consideration is the human effect. These kids haven't been through a conference season this difficult before. The mental and physical tolls are even greater. Adversity they haven't had to deal with...etc. Kenpom can't figure that stuff in. And then factor in new assistants and that is a lot of change from last year.

Not gonna say whether our defense is or isn't better due to the conference change. But I am sure it plays a roll.

As I sit here today I reflect. All in all I am damn proud of how this team has competed in a MUCH tougher league. While there has been some disappointing moments, it has still been a huge success and given us everything we wanted when we switched. Tougher schedule so we would get better seeding without having to win every damn game.

As I calmly sit here enjoying some basketball with NO WORRIES on the day. I remind myself that we saw some of the best defenses in the COUNTRY more than once this year. And each of those teams we beat at least once and (outside of the game @Houston) we had chances to win the ones we lost. That gives me some hope that once we hit the tourney we will be more than ready to face any of the defenses that come our way. Our offense should be able to open up a little. Plus Marshall's system has always been well suited for the NCAA tourney.

So even while our defense may or may not be as good as last year. There is no DOUBT our offense is better. And at times recently our defense has been getting better.

I still believe this team has what it takes to advance. As always it's all about matchups. But I still feel on any given night we can beat anyone. And that is still a damn good feeling to have.

Enjoy the stress free day. And GO SHOX!

[El_Wu]

Here’s the deal with that. If we were in the MVC our D would be the best. But let’s face. The AAC has some very good defensive teams too. There are on us like white on rice. Just like we were on the MVC. As you can see every time we put so much pressure on teams we would get a lot of calls on us. Yet when they put pressure on us they would hardly make calls on them. As we saw yesterday. Twice that bun guy fouled AR and yet no call. You’ll see that when tournament time comes. We will probably go to at least sweet 16. Maybe elite 8. But it’ll get hard final four for sure. But I dont see Houston or Cincy making it past round of 32.

[Rlh04d]

There was a post recently which noted KenPom rankings at different points in the season from someone who saved them after each game. What was our KenPom defensive ranking like prior to the conference season starting?

I know it was much better than how it's ended the season, but if I recall correctly it was still in the 60-ish range, even without AAC opponents.

[AndShock]

KenPom doesn’t get rid of preseason weighting until December IIRC

[Rlh04d]

Do we know the date? December would effectively cut out conference play from the #s.

[ShockerFever]

Before posting, maybe consider the following question:

"Am I addressing anything to do with basketball?"

If not, don't post it in a basketball forum.

You mad homie?

[bleed yellow]

My theory on the defense is Marshall may of just decided to change his scheme by figuring a high octane offense would fair better in the AAC. Good teams play either offense or defense, great teams do a little bit of everything.
Cincy is a perfect example of this. They've always been a defense first team and rarely make deep runs in the NCAA tournament. The team Cincy has now, of course the media is saying they can reach the Final 4. Even during AAC play it obvious that Cincy is still vulnerable to getting overwhelmed by a high octane offense.
The only strange part about the apparent change in our defense this year was that it didn't seem to stress out the team. Marshall went from a defense first guy to not seeming that bothered by what what we saw this year. I think we will see the defense we are used to return, it's just a matter of when. Could take years.

[SB Shock]

If you break down the kenpom numbers down by opponent ranking, you will find that regardless of quality of opponent WSU did not play as good of defense as they did last year.

[Rlh04d]

That's not particularly true. WSU played rather strong defense against upper tier teams. It was Q3 opponents who really hurt our defense.

[CBB_Fan]

You mad homie?

Before posting, maybe consider the following question:

"Am I addressing anything to do with basketball?"

If not, don't post it in a basketball forum. x2

[ShockerFever]

Before posting, maybe consider the following question:

"Am I addressing anything to do with basketball?"

If not, don't post it in a basketball forum. x2

Homie is maaaad.

[proshox]

I think we are more scared of perimeter fouls than we used to be.

I showed my my son some games from four years ago. The amount of physical contact on the perimeter was much higher and we also were willing to foul as a result of high on ball pressure. This year we just don’t take that risk.

[CBB_Fan]

Homie is maaaad.

Before posting, maybe consider the following question:

"Am I addressing anything to do with basketball?"

If not, don't post it in a basketball forum. x3

I'm not mad; I'm disappointed that any Shocker fan would care so little about the team and so much about themselves that they would try to turn a basketball forum into a personal drama forum about themselves. Have some respect for Shocker basketball and try to make your posts in a Shocker basketball forum about Shocker basketball.

---

On offensive styles, I do agree that the Valley was primarily a 3PT specialist and traditional big man league, and our personnel was more keyed into fighting those types of players. For instance, take Rauno. He is a extraordinary defender when he is allowed to play 1v1 in the paint versus a traditional big. He's won individual matchups vs multiple NBA centers, including Jakob Poeltl, Kaleb Tarczewski, and Luke Kornet. But force him to hedge a screen 27 feet from the basket and his footspeed is put to the test, resulting in defensive breakdowns.

But I don't think the entirety of our decline is due to fighting more slashers. think a lot of it has to do with McDuffie's rust coming back from injury and playing 2 traditional bigs most of the time. Last year we played a lot of lineups with Brown at the 3 and McDuffie at the 4, which gave us a quick set of forwards that together were good at stopping the drive and closing out on shooters. This year, we are playing 2 senior bigs most of the time; out of our 10 most common lineups in the last 5 games, 9 of them feature a combination of Kelly, Willis, Shaq, and Nurger at the 4 and 5.

The problem with having two slower big men is slower help on drives and slower hedges on screens. Part of that is simply wanting to play the seniors, part of it is McDuffie coming off rusty, but the result is a more open paint for slashers despite having mostly the same personnel. I also think that in general we seem to be more star driven on offense, which results in less physical play by Morris and Landry to try to stay out of foul trouble. Compare this to 2016, where we played very aggressively but picked up a lot of fouls (5th in TO% but 327th in FTA/FGA).

I also think the bigger think that has killed us isn't the drive to the basket, but the pass after the drive. Look at the NBA, and you'll see just how much better players shoot off as a pass as opposed to off the dribble. NBA players shot an average of 51.6% eFG% in catch and shoot situations in 2013, as opposed to 40.4% in off the dribble situations. So even if we stop the slasher at the basket, we are way more likely to get burned from the 3PT line. And this is backed by our stats. We've gone from 43.8% eFG% to 49.3% in one year, and most of that of that difference is from behind the arc. Opponents are shooting 5.2% better from 3 this year, and 3.7% better from 2.

I think our best bet going forward in the tournament is to foul more (by playing more aggressively), play McDuffie more at the 4, and perfect the zone we've used a couple times to limit the amount teams can exploit certain lineups footspeeds.

[ShockCrazy]

I think this breakdown is accurate. Although I think we have been a bit unlucky when it comes to 3 point shooting. I don't remember where I saw it but teams are shooting way above average for catch and shoot situations. Which you don't really defend catch and shoot, you limit the opportunities(which is an important part of reducing efg% as you mention), but the shooting % isn't something defense really effects.

[SB Shock]

I think our best bet going forward in the tournament is to foul more

You may want to talk to RDR. He has some pretty interesting numbers that says if your fouls + turnover >30, then you lose

[ShockingButTrue]

Ironically, our O improved.

[champions5]

South Dakota State is a damn good team and a high-level offensive team.

Arkansas State or FGCU would've been a better example.

That’s true.

[shocksrbest]

Opponents' O got better.

The Valley was filled with, let's call them corn-fed farm boys from Iowa who could nail 3's. There was Paris Lee, who could get to the hoop, but wasn't someone who had to be guarded real close on the perimeter.

There wasn't much film from last year that showed the weakness of the Shox D. Trae Young provided that film this year. The AAC is filled with guards who can penetrate and can hit from 3. It's also filled with 3's and 4's who can hit jumpers and drive to the hoop.

Once opponents figured out they could drive past our perimeter D, the D was doomed. The D didn't get worse, it got exposed. It's a little like SHJ. Against Arkansas State, he was awesome. Against better competition, he was exposed.

The knock on Shamet from NBA scouts is that he can't guard the perimeter. Reaves and Frankamp aren't quick enough to cover the perimeter guys who drive in the AAC. Brown isn't an elite defender against players with handles who are quicker than he is. He didn't run into any of those (other than possibly Lee) in the Valley.

A caller to the post-game show went on and on about why the Shox never pressure opposing guards beyond the 3-point line like opponents pressure WSU's guards deep. The answer is pretty simple. If WSU's perimeter guards apply pressure deep, opponents will drive past them into the lane and then the big guys get into foul problems. Leave perimeter guys uncovered out to 25' or so in the AAC and they hit 3's like they're layup drills. WSU's guards get pressured deep because they aren't threats to drive into the paint.

The Shox D faced a decision. Give up points in the paint and get post players (Morris) into foul trouble, or cheat perimeter defenders into the lane to slow down penetration and leave perimeter players unguarded. The choice was sort of like choosing which you'd rather have bite you, an alligator or a crocodile.

Then I would play an extended zone more often to cut out the penetration.