End of Game Scenarios

[Shockm]

I continue to maintain little confidence in HCGM and ability to close out the tough games.
I see a lot of excitement but not much composure.

People have cited the end of the ND game and then there was Cincy. We now have Houston.

Case in point - 23.4 seconds on game clock, 21.2 shot clock. WSU inbounds to Shamet who dribbles into the front court.
He then dribbles some more, makes a short pass to a smothered Frankamp, who quickly returned the ball. Shamet dribbles some more... and some more...and some more before finally kicking it to Reaves on the far sideline with 8 seconds remaining. Reaves starts to drive, ball is deflected, falls to the floor and calls T/O with 6 seconds remaining. We all know what happened next.

HCGM stood there and watched the entire time and either thought things looked fine or wasn't sure what to do.
You tell me.

As mentioned, confidence in WSU end game situations remains minimal, especially with his current group of lieutenants.

That is all.

Against ND Shaq didn't execute defensively and gave up a layup foul. Remember that Shaq has not been relied upon in late game situations in past years. The only place Shaq would have been the main option would be posting up and with 4 seconds left, he wouldn't have gotten the ball low.

Marshall was talking to Sampson after he put the play in and the referees were debating how much time was on the clock during a timeout called by Gregg to set up the play with 7 seconds left (not 4) He had no time to change it.

[proshox]

When it was obvious we were going to have less time when it was all said and done.

[ShockRef]

Against ND Shaq didn't execute defensively and gave up a layup foul. Remember that Shaq has not been relied upon in late game situations in past years. The only place Shaq would have been the main option would be posting up and with 4 seconds left, he wouldn't have gotten the ball low.

Marshall was talking to Sampson after he put the play in and the referees were debating how much time was on the clock during a timeout called by Gregg to set up the play with 7 seconds left (not 4) He had no time to change it.

M,
I hear you but don't agree. All 3 officials informed him right away there was a clock issue and there would be an adjustment.
After watching the replay and then pulling out the trusty stop watch, Nance and Daily both informed him how much time would be left. Teddy then walked across the court and explained to Nantz and Rafftery. I know this for a fact, cause I was right there.
HCGM did meet with his guys for a bit, but not sure what he said (I wasn't in the huddle).

Agree with the Shaq comment. You're spot on with that one.

That is all.

[Kung Wu]

That is all.

When Reaves got steamrolled. Foul or no foul?

[Aargh]

Which time? The time Gray ran over him on the inbounds pass into back court, or the time Gray grabbed his off ball arm and dragged him to the floor with 6 seconds left (9.5 on the clock in the gym)?

[Stickboy46]

HOW DARE YOU SUGGEST THAT GRAY FOULED SOMEONE!!! Gray doesn't foul ... EVER!

[kochHead]

After watching the end of several games this past weekend, specifically Rhode Island v Davidson, Houston v Cincy, TTech v WV, and our game v Houston, I can say that being in the position to hit a last second shot to win or tie should be avoided at all costs. I have heard the argument that we suck at executing at end of game situation, and that is subjectively true (IMO), however it's not a high probability situation to begin with from what i can see (empirical data would be nice if anyone has it).

Some assume for example, that if on average you shoot 45%, that you should win 45% of games that come down to the last possession (offensively). Well, that's ridiculous. The variables at play are completely different; extreme intensity/focus defensively, pressure to execute against the clock, and the reluctance of refs to make a game altering call (see Gray). The level of difficulty is high, and probability of success low(er). Long story short, we are better off just completely avoiding the scenario all together (Captain Obvious here). But when the situation does arise, all we can do is hope for a statistical anomaly in our favor. Seems like we are due for one.

[BOBB]

Those teams got shots off though.

[Rlh04d]

Why do people keep referring to avoiding last second shots as if it's a strategy? Yes, preferably we should win every game by 20+ points. We should avoid any scenario where we don't win by 20 points.

You know what's a good strategy to avoid losing? Being up by 20 points. You're welcome, I've solved basketball.

I agree there isn't a clear % like assuming a 45% shooter is going to shoot 45% on a last second shot. But I also guarantee you that the % a 45% shooter who can't even get a shot off in these scenarios will shoot is 0%. Which happens to be the % we've been shooting for several consecutive years in these scenarios.

[BOBB]

Find myself in agreement with ShockRef in this instance as well as his comments on Kelly's value. You can't spend your entire limited practice bandwidth diagramming and running clock plays and inbounds, but clearly we are not doing either with the volume or intensity the players require.

[kochHead]

A spread the court, 2 man pick and pop (or pick and roll) seems like a simple play to run at the end of a game since it allows for many potential reads and options. But i am no coach, and it seems like we do not run that set like we use to when Fred was here. Personnel strengths, i assume.

[Shockm]

Opposing coaches know every out of bounds play you have. They have put them into a computer and know what you do well and what you don’t. They know every tendency you have. Thus the three options on this last play in the Houston game. I will repeat. The players have to execute and make decisions on the fly. We didn’t.

I think a few Einstein’s have no idea.

[60Shock]

When is the last time we were behind by a point or two, had the ball with a short time to play, and actually scored to win the game?

[Shockm]

Big shots are the key. Whether you're ahead by a couple of points or behind, you still have to make big shots.

[ShockerFever]

When is the last time we were behind by a point or two, had the ball with a short time to play, and actually scored to win the game?

Off the top of my head, Alabama at home, a couple years ago.

[ShockerDropOut]

Rashard Kelly with the basket in his freshman year. One of the games my wife and I were lucky enough to attend.

[60Shock]

Thanks, SF, I had totally forgotten the Alabama game..

[pinstripers]

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/wichita-state/article204985004.html

Good Lord

[Cdizzle]

Focus less on winning with 12 seconds left. Focus more on winning with 6 minutes and 12 seconds left.

[Rlh04d]

These aren't either/or scenarios. You're inevitably going to have scenarios where the game comes down to 12 seconds. Maybe only once or twice a year, but it's inevitably going to happen. You prepare for those or you lose them.

[ShockerPrez]

Focus less on winning with 12 seconds less. Focus more on winning with 6 minutes and 12 seconds left.

Yep. Dont milk clock, ever. Unless theres 2 minutes and you are up 10. Score, score, score. Up 2? Up 3 or 4 is better.

Down 1 with 30 seconds? Score fast and give yourself time for a 2nd chance and if you leave time on the clock allowing the other team to score, so be it.

Tired of dribbling around until 8 seconds and then going. Thats fine if you are tied, but when you are behind, there needs to be urgency to maximize possessions and chances to score.

[Shockm]

This is a dumb subject imo. Sometimes, analysis becomes a nuisance. This is similar to some of Dave Dahl’s stats (I love him but his analysis goes crazy). He may say that Landry has made 4 out of 5 free throws in 3 of the past 5 games or Conner has made 2 free throws in 4 of his last 6 games. All he has to say is that it would be nice if he shot more free throws and he is 35 of 35 for the year.

[Dan]

it is very difficult to practice end of game scenarios just because there are so many scenarios available. On top of that, we don't have AAC level defenders on our scout team that can replicate AAC level defenses, thus guys like Landry, Austin and Conner probably get their shots off in practice situations. I just wish we had better inbound plays that can used in late game scenarios.

[ShockTalk]

it is very difficult to practice end of game scenarios just because there are so many scenarios available. On top of that, we don't have AAC level defenders on our scout team that can replicate AAC level defenses, thus guys like Landry, Austin and Conner probably get their shots off in practice situations. I just wish we had better inbound plays that can used in late game scenarios.

While I'll say that we are not as deep now as we thought we were early in the season, we do have 10 players averaging double digit minutes for the season, plus Rod Brown, and a couple of our best defenders may not be out there on offense on an inbounds play. I would think that in practicing "the inbounds" our most likely 5 offensive players are working against possible players like Kelly, Z Brown, R. Brown, and whomever else are the best defenders.

I guess I'm not sure what you mean by "not AAC level" defenders. How is the scenario above any different than what any other AAC team, or any team, going to have in "quality players" to practice against the "top 5" offensive players on inbounds plays. Where's our disadvantage? If anything, we're deeper than most other teams, even a lot of the really good teams.

[WSUwatcher]

So why is Loyola still playing after three wins in a row that came down to their last possession, while WSU lost three of its last four that came down to their last possession against Cincinnati, Houston, and Marshall?

Is it because Loyola runs great end of game stuff whereas the Shocks go muck it up?

Because Porter Moser and staff are wizards while 3G and Co. are clueless and unprepared?

Because Donte Ingram's loooong three hit to stagger Miami was a better shot that the one Frankamp missed against Cincy in Wichita, or (to go back a few weeks) the one McDuffie missed for the win in Philly?

Yeah, suurre. LMAO, SN gripers -- a big fat no on all three counts.

There's one main reason that overrides all the others put together, and it isn't that Sister Jean finally has her prayer formula down now that WSU is out of Loyola's way. It's simply this: Loyola's guys have hit their shots, and WSU has missed theirs. Coaches coach, but players play; and when the players hit big shots at big times, the players and coaches win together and the coaches look good. When they miss, they lose and the coaches look not so good.

No question WSU has done some silly things in end of game scenarios (Shamet's pass that Ronnie Lott intercepted against Houston; Reaves's startlingly poor in-bounds pass; the debacle against Notre Dame way back in November. There's plenty of blame to spread around -- and, yes, the refs get some too, as they often can in close games -- plus, as other posters have noted, if you play better with five or ten minutes to go there's less chance you'll need to do something great with five or ten seconds to go.

But with all that being said, one simple truth remains: if your good shooters make shots with the game on the line it covers a multitude of sins; and if they don't, you're likely to be in trouble. WSU has had a run of bad luck in those spots for a while now, but someday it will break, and when it does the clouds of doom and disappointment will go away along with the second guessing.

[Shockm]

Last night Loyola’s winning shot (Towns) was exactly the same play that we tried to execute against Cincinnati at CKA. The difference was that Custer got the ball to Towns where Landry’s layup was converged upon by three players and was blocked with 9 seconds left. Conner’s man had converged on the ball too leaving Conner a step in wide open shot. The ironic thing was that earlier in the year Landry had executed exactly that same play (it was late in a close game but not in the last minute) to Conner at the end of the 30 second clock successfully. Why this time, Landry didn’t look for the open man, I don’t know. However, those examples of executing earlier and not executing later are a microcosm of our season and perhaps a microcosm of Loyola’s. Last year, Landry seemed to execute those plays too but not this year. Maybe next year.