End of Game Scenarios

[Rlh04d]

I wanted to look up how long it's actually been since we hit one of these last second shots after a comment from jdshock in the game thread. As best I can tell, in end of game, "win or else" type offensive scenarios with enough time on the clock to actually do something (not a half court three point heave with a second remaining), we've succeeded four times since the "Karate Kick" game -- forcing OT against Missouri State to maintain the perfect season, winning against Alabama, winning against Hawaii, and forcing OT in an eventual loss against Seton Hall. And we've failed 17 times, including 10 straight. (The Notre Dame game might be arguable -- I didn't include defensive stops necessary to win games, but I included ND since our offense failed to execute to allow the loss in the last seconds.)
.

Date	Team	Result
3/10/2018	Houston	L
3/4/2018	Cincinnati	L
2/1/2018	Temple	L
2/1/2018	Temple	Allowed OT
11/22/2017	Notre Dame	L
3/19/2017	Kentucky	L
11/25/2016	Michigan St	L
3/5/2016	Northern Iowa	Allowed OT
2/13/2016	Northern Iowa	L
2/6/2016	Illinois State	L
12/19/2015	Seton Hall	Forced OT
11/27/2015	Alabama	L
3/7/2015	Illinois State	L
12/23/2014	Hawaii	W
12/16/2014	Alabama	W
12/3/2014	Utah	L
12/3/2014	Utah	Allowed OT
3/23/2014	Kentucky	L
1/11/2014	Missouri St	Forced OT
3/10/2013	Creighton	L
2/27/2013	Evansville	L
2/17/2013	Illinois St	W

[Shox The Revenant]

Facts don't lie

[AndShock]

Then I guess we need to stop letting it come down to the last possession.

[Rlh04d]

There's no team in the country that isn't put in a position where they have to win on the last possession of a close game.

Even in our undefeated season, which is unquestionably the most dominant season in program history and one of the most dominant in the history of the sport, we were in that situation twice.

[proshox]

I wanted to look up how long it's actually been since we hit one of these last second shots after a comment from jdshock in the game thread. As best I can tell, in end of game, "win or else" type offensive scenarios with enough time on the clock to actually do something (not a half court three point heave with a second remaining), we've succeeded three times since the "Karate Kick" game -- forcing OT against Missouri State to maintain the perfect season, winning against Hawaii, and forcing OT in an eventual loss against Seton Hall. And we've failed 17 times, including 10 straight. (The Notre Dame game might be arguable -- I didn't include defensive stops necessary to win games, but I included ND since our offense failed to execute to allow the loss in the last seconds.)
.

Date	Team	Result
3/10/2018	Houston	L
3/4/2018	Cincinnati	L
2/1/2018	Temple	L
2/1/2018	Temple	Allowed OT
11/22/2017	Notre Dame	L
3/19/2017	Kentucky	L
11/25/2016	Michigan St	L
3/5/2016	Northern Iowa	Allowed OT
2/13/2016	Northern Iowa	L
2/6/2016	Illinois State	L
12/19/2015	Seton Hall	Forced OT
11/27/2015	Alabama	L
3/7/2015	Illinois State	L
12/23/2014	Hawaii	W
12/3/2014	Utah	L
12/3/2014	Utah	Allowed OT
3/23/2014	Kentucky	L
1/11/2014	Missouri St	Forced OT
3/10/2013	Creighton	L
2/27/2013	Evansville	L
2/17/2013	Illinois St	W

These should be fifty fifty situations

[1979Shocker]

It really depends on who takes the last shot. If the team is shooting 50% for the game, but the player that ends up shooting the last shot is only shooting 33% for the game, it will probably be less than a fifty-fifty situation.

Taking the other extreme where the player that shoots the last shot is shooting 60-70% for the game, then it will likely be a greater than fifty-fifty situation.

[Shock Top]

Damn. That’s a hell of a trend.

Too bad one can’t call in to any of the radio shows and voice this.

[Kel Varnsen]

We need more dudes.

We've had some dudes in comparison to mid-majors, to be sure. But we need DUDES. Guys who you can give the ball to, tell them "get a bucket," clear everyone out, and they can get it. Landry's the closest thing we have right now to that, but even he doesn't have a great first step and is not overly quick to the basket compared to players like Gray or Milton.

The caliber of individual talent, in my humble opinion, from Cincinnati, Houston, Temple, UCF, UConn, Memphis, SMU, and to a lesser extent, Tulane, are all higher than ours. That said, great coaching and a great culture cover a multitude of ills, and we have one of the best in the country. But we have some players who are constantly physically overmatched (Frankamp, Reaves), and some who are much more raw (Willis, Z. Brown, McDuffie) compared to the players we face in the American.

A lot of that comes with recruiting, and we just haven't been able to recruit some of those guys until recently, although we snagged three future NBA players. I would put Van Vleet and Early (especially when they were together in 13-14) all in the dude category.

We need more dudes. And in my personal opinion we're getting a couple in Lomax and Moore next season.

Some may take this as a slight to our guys, and it's not. But there is a physical difference between Conner/Austin and the players they are typically guarding. There's a skill set difference between Willis/Zach/Markis and the players they are guarding. I have to assume that gap will shrink in the coming seasons.

[Class of 85]

I don't know what games you have been watching, but the Wichita games I watched this year show me a talent level better than all but 1-2 teams in the American. And the talent is equal to Cincinnati and Houston, the other 1-2 teams. Shaq Morris, Landry Shamet, and Rashard Kelly can play with anyone.

The three teams at the top of the American this year are pretty close in terms of talent and skill. On any given day, any of the three teams can beat the other. That has proved itself out over the course of the year. This year, Cincinnati has been a little better overall because they have avoided stumbling against one of the other teams in the league. Houston and Wichita did not.

[WuShock16]

Alabama win in December 2014 is missing

[Rlh04d]

Thanks -- added.

[shoxlax]

While I give you the fact that those numbers suck, what is the average of other teams? Is it really 50% success, 30% success, etc.? In all honesty, I think it would be interesting to know.

So we had Chris Jans, Steve Forbes, or Greg Heier on the bench for a lot of those games. They are/were responsible for designing and calling many of these end of game plays that HCGM used even though he owns the results. We also had three NBA players and one more that will be there in the near future. The above games represent many of our losses the last few years so what does that really say other than we rarely get blown out....we just aren't used to being in close games and can't mentally embrace the moment? I dunno.

The reverse was true when MT was our coach...it didn't seem like we could get a stop to win a game to save our life.

[Rlh04d]

I have a lot of these same questions, too. I really don't know.

And if we're turning this in the other direction, I'm sure our numbers look pretty solid for getting a defensive stop on the last possession when it's necessary. It's just especially frustrating this year when we're 0-5 in these scenarios, and yet we've regressed on defense and so we're struggling to get that final stop necessary to close out a game we're winning.

[proshox]

I bet the number is closer to fifty percent... Kenpom has some data and he usually starts at the two minute mark.

He has basically found you can throw out the efficiency metrics in a one possession game. It is going to be a pick’em with an infinite number of variables over coming talent deltas.

So it is crazy we haven’t won more of these games.

If i were going to go out on a limb, i would say our team doesn’t feature scorers. The emphasis is on team... these situations just usually require someone to successfully convert on a selfish play. We don’t get a lot of normal practice in that selfishbarea.

The name of the WSU game has been and will be getting separation in the first thirty five minutes... it is one of the reasons i would like to see timeouts used early in games. I think the timeouts at the end are overrated. Players will either make plays or not at the end.

[Shox The Revenant]

We need more dudes.

We've had some dudes in comparison to mid-majors, to be sure. But we need DUDES. Guys who you can give the ball to, tell them "get a bucket," clear everyone out, and they can get it. Landry's the closest thing we have right now to that, but even he doesn't have a great first step and is not overly quick to the basket compared to players like Gray or Milton.

The caliber of individual talent, in my humble opinion, from Cincinnati, Houston, Temple, UCF, UConn, Memphis, SMU, and to a lesser extent, Tulane, are all higher than ours. That said, great coaching and a great culture cover a multitude of ills, and we have one of the best in the country. But we have some players who are constantly physically overmatched (Frankamp, Reaves), and some who are much more raw (Willis, Z. Brown, McDuffie) compared to the players we face in the American.

A lot of that comes with recruiting, and we just haven't been able to recruit some of those guys until recently, although we snagged three future NBA players. I would put Van Vleet and Early (especially when they were together in 13-14) all in the dude category.

We need more dudes. And in my personal opinion we're getting a couple in Lomax and Moore next season.

Some may take this as a slight to our guys, and it's not. But there is a physical difference between Conner/Austin and the players they are typically guarding. There's a skill set difference between Willis/Zach/Markis and the players they are guarding. I have to assume that gap will shrink in the coming seasons.

This is an accurate statement. We're playing AAC games with MVC players with the exception of a few. An upgrade in conference will hopefully equate to an upgrade in recruits soon. If Lomax doesn't ask to be released from his LOI, I'm very happy with these two coming in. The big guys we've got signed, I dunno. I'm afraid they'll be the typical big guy we've had come in, great size - slow feet and not athletic enough.

[proshox]

I don’t really buy this... do we often play a number of players together with similar deficiencies? I would say yes... could we match up if we played out top seven more, i would say yes.

That doesn’t mean Houston and Cincinnati don’t have great players that may be better is some ways... but i think you are splitting hairs.

The difference in my eyes is that everyone is playing small ball and we are playing big. The small vs. big mismatches are easier for the average fan to see.

Every analyst unfamiliar with the Shockers go on and on about house we are guarding with taller players. It is in an inquisitive nature. They don’t get it... and neither do i.

[DUShock]

I "liked" your post @Rlh04d because I appreciate you taking the time to compile the facts. I don't "like" the indicative but as Edward Deming said...

Thank you @Rlh04d
Go Shocks!

[Shocktheheck]

Check out @KWCHWill’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/KWCHWill/status/...376719360?s=09

options that where not taken

[Wuzee]

ALo and Erik will not let this S continue. We haven’t had hard-asses like them since Malcolm. And, yes, I am including Ron and, to a lesser extent, Fred in that. Also, I have had many beers, so maybe just forget I spoke.

[Aargh]

If you think Baker and VanVleet weren't Grade A1 hard asses, you need a little better understanding.

[BostonWu]

So in a nutshell no dudes with a step or the athleticism to go get a bucket. It's no secret we have no slashers on this team. Hope that skill set is in the pipeline.

[DUShock]

I keep hoping that McDuffie will be one of these guys.

[proshox]

We have guys that can, but with a double post the lane is rarely clear enough to drive.

[Husker4Shockers]

What was the result in the games where we allowed or forced overtime?

[Rlh04d]

Lost the most recent three, won the two before that.

[BostonWu]

MM has never demonstrated that ability. Thus far he just doesn't have the handles.

[DUShock]

Thus far is correct, but I hold out hope that it will materialize.