2010 Bubble Watch

[SB Shock]

As Gene stated, we are one of fewer than 20 teams with over 40 wins. We also haven't lost many over the stretch of the past month to month and a half.

IMO if your going to use 40 wins as a metric then it should be Div I wins. WSU does not have 40 Div I wins. If you look at the opponents where WSU made it late season run you will see:

6-2 50-100 RPI
4-1 100-150 RPI
6-1 150-200 RPI
2-1 200+ RPI
1-0 Non-Div I Bethany

That is kind of lean on quality opponents with no marque wins. If I can see this, so will the selection committee. The number that keeps popping out at me is 3-5 vs Top 50 opponents.

The NCAA better take a GOOD, LONG, HARD look at our resume.

Why? It's not like WSU has not been screwed over by the NCAA before and nothing has happened. Except this time WSU baseball team made their own bed.

If we don't get in, I certainly hope that certain teams mentioned in this thread, and I would definately throw in KU, don't make it in over us.

If WSU gets in there will be plenty of criticism and some will be saying they only get in on reputation. If WSU would happen to get in - they really need to overachieve and get to Omaha.

[SB Shock]

From Baseball America

Texas State, Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast, Elon and Pittsburgh are all in the same group of teams with legitimate shots at bids, and it's difficult to say how the committee will choose between them, since it's unlikely that all of them will get in. Those teams are also competing with major-conference bubble teams with far more wins against the top 50 (like North Carolina, Kentucky and Arizona). Elon seems to be in the strongest position of that mid-major group, thanks to a 10-9 mark against the top 50, but will the SoCon get four bids if Western Carolina beats The Citadel in tomorrow's title game? Unlikely. Pittsburgh is in the same boat if St. John's beats Connecticut for the Big East title.

[ShockTalk]

I don't know where we came up with this 40 win magic number that WSU should/could get in.

The fact is, WSU has never gotten in the NCAA post-season with less than 44 wins unless they won the MVC tourney. In '86 they didn't get in with 45 wins. In 2006 we got in with 44 wins, but it included wins over @ #25 (at the time) OU, #8 OU at home, 3-0 at #21 LBS, #24 KU at home, 3 game sweep of unranked USC, and an 11 inning loss @ #10 Arkansas. Did we do that this year?

I hope they do make it, but if not, let's not blame the number of upsets in other conference tourneys for keeping us out. Not enough 1-50 RPI games, no marquee wins, several bad RPI losses, several bad (score-wise) loses including a bad thumping at home in the tourney final.

[billybud]

ESPN's take on regionals...who fills the field

http://espn.go.com/ncaa/blog/_/name/ncaa_baseball/id/5234666/who-fill-field-64

[ShockerFever]

I don't know where we came up with this 40 win magic number that WSU should/could get in.

The fact is, WSU has never gotten in the NCAA post-season with less than 44 wins unless they won the MVC tourney. In '86 they didn't get in with 45 wins. In 2006 we got in with 44 wins, but it included wins over @ #25 (at the time) OU, #8 OU at home, 3-0 at #21 LBS, #24 KU at home, 3 game sweep of unranked USC, and an 11 inning loss @ #10 Arkansas. Did we do that this year?

I hope they do make it, but if not, let's not blame the number of upsets in other conference tourneys for keeping us out. Not enough 1-50 RPI games, no marquee wins, several bad RPI losses, several bad (score-wise) loses including a bad thumping at home in the tourney final.

Thanks for bringing in a dose of reality to the forum.

[shocker3]

Looking through all of the post-season conference tournament scores it looks like there were 6 conference upsets that could take away bubble spots: Atlantic Sun, Big East, Conf. USA, MVC, Southern and Sun Belt.

Also Baylor making it to the Big 12 championship game and NC State playing in the ACC championship game probably took them off the bubble and moved them safely in, removing two more potential slots.
:wsu_posters:

[shocker3]

I think NC and Kentucky don't make it because they didn't even make their conference tournament. I still trying to see who WSU jumps.

I think California and Elon may be WSU's best chances to jump.

Cal finished the season 2-8 in their last 10 games, in 6th place in the PAC 10. They have a 12-17 record against the rpi top 50.

Elon finished as the 4th seed in the SoCon and they have 4 bad losses (15-4 against the rpi 200+ teams) and are 6-4 in their last 10 games.

Other than those two and the two you mentioned (NC and Kentucky), I don't really see who else we might jump. If we managed to jump all four of those teams and nobody behind us jumps us, that would put us as the last team in.

SB I think you have done a really good job analyzing these teams. It will be interesting to see how close the committee selections come to your projections. :wsu_posters:

[Ashockalypse]

There are some of you that apparently are just fine with the SEC, ACC and B12 etc. getting RPI ranks without even earning them just because of the conference there in but insist on Wichita State earning every frickin penny it gets thrown at it. A lot of these "quality wins" and "top fifty" teams you are talking about are supposed to be in these silver spoon conferences that get everything bestowed on them before a pitch is thrown. Then, like Oklahoma, they are too damn scared to play us. I think every time someone declines to play us we ought to get an RPI point. Again, if they are so damn good and we suck so bad, how do we keep going to the championship of regionals or to super regionals with our mediocre teams? I will believe in their RPI when they step up and give us some home and home series. Hold us to a high standard but hold them to one that is just as high.

[shocker3]

Baseball America is listing WSU as one of the first 3 teams left out of the tournament:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/on-campus/2010/2610076.html

A little bit of their analysis:

FIELD ANALYSIS


The last teams into the field of 64 are California and New Mexico. Other bubble teams that get the nod: North Carolina, Kentucky, Elon, Oregon State, North Carolina State.

The first teams out are Arizona, Pittsburgh, Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, Boston College and Liberty.

The SEC gets nine bids, ACC gets eight, Pac-10 gets seven, Big 12 gets five. The SoCon, Big East and Sun Belt get three apiece.

Oregon is the last No. 2 seed. Baylor is the first No. 3 seed.

Illinois State is the last No. 3 seed. Jacksonville State is the first No. 4 seed.

The Golden Bears are in the most precarious position for an at-large bid. It's easy to envision the committee snubbing a Pac-10 team that failed to reach 30 wins, especially considering Cal's struggles over the last few weeks.......

[shocker3]

Some more insight into the Baseball America projections (from a Sunday BA Blog):

....We also have three new bubble teams that we listed in our field of 64 as likely automatic qualifiers in Tuesday's Stock Report. But Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast and Texas State failed to win their conference tournaments, so they get tossed into the at-large bubble pool, joining New Mexico, Elon, Kentucky, North Carolina, California, Oregon State and Pittsburgh, as well as the afore-mentioned Arizona and Liberty.

Of the "new" bubble teams, Florida Gulf Coast probably has the best shot at a bid because of its RPI (42nd), but Wichita actually has a stronger case despite a 14-spot gap in the RPI—a difference that can be attributed to FGCU's geographic advantages. The Shockers (3-5 vs. the top 50) actually have more quality wins than the Eagles (2-7), and they won the head-to-head series at FGCU early in the season.......

.....But neither of those teams (nor Texas State, which is 2-10 vs. the top 50) has near as many good wins as power-conference bubble dwellers UNC, UK, Cal and Oregon State. Out of that quartet, Cal is the most vulnerable because it still has yet to reach 30 wins, and it was in a major slump.........


You can read the rest of the BA blog at:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=3267

BTW- UNC and UK failed to make their own conference tournaments.

:wsu_posters:

[ISASO]

Just like in basketball-a .500 conference record, there oughta be a law that if you cannot make the conference tournament you are disqualified from further postseason play.

[ShockTalk]

shocker2 said - "BTW- UNC and UK failed to make their own conference tournaments."

Once again, the NCAA totally baffels me. I don't care how strong a conference is, if a team from that conference can't even make their league's post-season tourney, they should not be allowed to be in the NCAA tourney. They would have had a full season of league play to make their point and worthiness and failed.

[shock10]

By my count there 32 at large teams ahead of WSU 1 is FGU. We are in. There are 34 at large right?

[Shoxtastic]

[SB Shock]

SE Baseball came out with their final projection.

http://www.sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1089596

WSU was their 3 last out. ISU goes to the Norman Regional.