Shox vs. Aces Game 3

[spinner]

Its still terrible to have the worst infield in the valley. Last in anything in the valley is not good. Gene said he is going with the best defense. I would not want to be pitching with the worst defense in the valley. They are all going to have sore arms.

[ShockTalk]

There is formula called baseball pythag theorem that predicts wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed. From this forumula the following can be hypothesised:

Actual wins: 17
Predicted Wins: 18 (WSU has underachieve by 1 game to this point)

Runs allowed are +0.42 per game ahead of last year (only +0.14 is due to defense)

Decrease in pitching/defense is costing WSU to this point almost 1 win.

WSU is better in the offensive category by +2.51 runs per game. This has improved WSU record from last by +3 games.

WSU is on pace to win 38 games (56 game schedule). The reality for this to improve will require the pitching staff to get better. Getting back to 2008 pitching levels would yield +4 game inctrease (38 to 42 wins) if offense and D stay the same.

conclusions

2010 team is being saved by it's hitting improvement over 2009

2010 team is being hurt by a struggling pitching staff that has got worse not better from last year performance

2010 team defense - is less of factor in this team losing as some might think.

Just so I'm clear on this. The theorem is based on actual runs scored and allowed from LAST year or THIS year to predict this year's result?

[SB Shock]

There is formula called baseball pythag theorem that predicts wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed. From this forumula the following can be hypothesised:

Actual wins: 17
Predicted Wins: 18 (WSU has underachieve by 1 game to this point)

Runs allowed are +0.42 per game ahead of last year (only +0.14 is due to defense)

Decrease in pitching/defense is costing WSU to this point almost 1 win.

WSU is better in the offensive category by +2.51 runs per game. This has improved WSU record from last by +3 games.

WSU is on pace to win 38 games (56 game schedule). The reality for this to improve will require the pitching staff to get better. Getting back to 2008 pitching levels would yield +4 game inctrease (38 to 42 wins) if offense and D stay the same.

conclusions

2010 team is being saved by it's hitting improvement over 2009

2010 team is being hurt by a struggling pitching staff that has got worse not better from last year performance

2010 team defense - is less of factor in this team losing as some might think.

Just so I'm clear on this. The theorem is based on actual runs scored and allowed from LAST year or THIS year to predict this year's result?

The formula uses only only the results from this year. The delta's I reference were comparing and contrasting this year team from last year team.

If you google it you can get full description of the formulation and theory.

[ShockTalk]

There is formula called baseball pythag theorem that predicts wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed. From this forumula the following can be hypothesised:

Actual wins: 17
Predicted Wins: 18 (WSU has underachieve by 1 game to this point)

Runs allowed are +0.42 per game ahead of last year (only +0.14 is due to defense)

Decrease in pitching/defense is costing WSU to this point almost 1 win.

WSU is better in the offensive category by +2.51 runs per game. This has improved WSU record from last by +3 games.

WSU is on pace to win 38 games (56 game schedule). The reality for this to improve will require the pitching staff to get better. Getting back to 2008 pitching levels would yield +4 game inctrease (38 to 42 wins) if offense and D stay the same.

conclusions

2010 team is being saved by it's hitting improvement over 2009

2010 team is being hurt by a struggling pitching staff that has got worse not better from last year performance

2010 team defense - is less of factor in this team losing as some might think.

Just so I'm clear on this. The theorem is based on actual runs scored and allowed from LAST year or THIS year to predict this year's result?

The formula uses only only the results from this year. The delta's I reference were comparing and contrasting this year team from last year team.

If you google it you can get full description of the formulation and theory.

Not disputing, just for discussion: The supposition that the underachievement is due to pitching/fielding I don't believe is valid. The team has simply under performed based on the theorem. Who the team played and where is much more likely the reason for the underperformance than pointing to the pitching. In fact, in WSU's wins, the team has won by an average margin of 10.6 - 3.2. In the losses, scoring only an average of 2.8 - 9.7. The pitching staff could have allowed 2 fewer runs in every game and still not won any of those games.

Also, the reduction in offense to an average to below average college team over the last ten years could just have likely effected our recruiting of quality pitchers creating the depth problem.

"WSU is better in the offensive category by +2.51 runs per game. This has improved WSU record from last by +3 games." Hogwash! Again, who you play and where has much more to do with this. Comparing last year to this year is apples and oranges.

Don't get real comfortable about us continuing our hitting pace either (I hope we do). Outside of Rogers State, our "cupcake" season is over. Based on the pre-season poll, we have already played the 2 bottom teams in the Valley. We have at least another 9 quality non-con games left as well.

"2010 team is being saved by it's hitting improvement over 2009". Saved? Really? Our two closest games, were wins of 5-3 each. Also a 10 inning win of 5-1 at home over Bradley. I'd say these games had as much to do with good pitching as good hitting.

No doubt the staff is struggling, particularly with its depth. I'm not trying to give them a pass, unfortunately, it's just that what I expected to happen to our staff three or four years ago has come about. It can be a tough draw to get top pitchers that feel they have to throw nearly shutouts against quality teams to win. At best, if this years offense continues, it will be average by Shocker standards, if not by college standards.

[shockfan89_]

Don't get real comfortable about us continuing our hitting pace either (I hope we do). Outside of Rogers State, our "cupcake" season is over. Based on the pre-season poll, we have already played the 2 bottom teams in the Valley. We have at least another 9 quality non-con games left as well.

Not sure what you mean by "cupcake" schedule? We have played 6 games against Top 50 teams so far and have only 2 left. We have played 3 games against teams 51-85 and have 1 remaining. As far as the MVC, Evansville has the highest RPI of any team other than Creighton. It would appear from that information that the hardest part of our season is over, not yet to come???

I don't disagree with some of your other points but it seems like we have blown a lot of leads or have started off deep in the hole by giving up big innings early in games. This is something that we aren't used to as Shocker fans. We are used to the pitching (at least starting pitching) being very dependable.

[ShockTalk]

Don't get real comfortable about us continuing our hitting pace either (I hope we do). Outside of Rogers State, our "cupcake" season is over. Based on the pre-season poll, we have already played the 2 bottom teams in the Valley. We have at least another 9 quality non-con games left as well.

Not sure what you mean by "cupcake" schedule? We have played 6 games against Top 50 teams so far and have only 2 left. We have played 3 games against teams 51-85 and have 1 remaining. As far as the MVC, Evansville has the highest RPI of any team other than Creighton. It would appear from that information that the hardest part of our season is over, not yet to come???

I don't disagree with some of your other points but it seems like we have blown a lot of leads or have started off deep in the hole by giving up big innings early in games. This is something that we aren't used to as Shocker fans. We are used to the pitching (at least starting pitching) being very dependable.

Cupcake games are all the directional games we've played. N. Florida, E. Michigan, S. Alabama, 2 N. Dakota, and 2 C. Arkansas. I'll give the 3 games against Florida Gulf Coast as better quality, but they've lost games at home to Kennesaw St and Sacred Heart. I'd like to believe (I think I do, maybe not) that our future games in the Valley will against better teams than the above. Evansville may prove the pre-season pundits wrong.

[GoShockers89]

Silly logic. North Florida and South Alabama are good teams this year. To discount them because they have a direction in their name is, frankly, dumb.

College baseball is nothing like college football or basketball in this regard. The Atlantic Sun and Sun Belt Conferences are littered with these types of teams, yet they consistently outrank the Big Ten and Big East in terms of RPI over the last decade. At the end of the season we will be happy to have wins over these directional "ninnies" instead of "big name" teams like Iowa, Notre Dame, etc.

Our non-conference schedule this year was pretty ambitious. Snow cancellations against Kansas and Washington State (x2) hurt. So do down years from San Jose State, Dallas Baptist and Oklahoma State. Most of the teams we've played are pretty darn good, and we have had a lot less cream puffs than in the past (Howard, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Chicago State, Hawaii Hilo).

[ShockTalk]

Silly logic. North Florida and South Alabama are good teams this year. To discount them because they have a direction in their name is, frankly, dumb.

College baseball is nothing like college football or basketball in this regard. The Atlantic Sun and Sun Belt Conferences are littered with these types of teams, yet they consistently outrank the Big Ten and Big East in terms of RPI over the last decade. At the end of the season we will be happy to have wins over these directional "ninnies" instead of "big name" teams like Iowa, Notre Dame, etc.

Our non-conference schedule this year was pretty ambitious. Snow cancellations against Kansas and Washington State (x2) hurt. So do down years from San Jose State, Dallas Baptist and Oklahoma State. Most of the teams we've played are pretty darn good, and we have had a lot less cream puffs than in the past (Howard, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Chicago State, Hawaii Hilo).

Who said anything about the Big Ten or Big East? The BCS thing doesn't fly in baseball near like it does it basketball. No real logic intended in my directional comment other than it was factual. Not really disagreeing with you here about these warm weather middies, but by and large, these particular teams haven't beaten anyone, except similar brothers. But your right, they're much better than the ones you mentioned.

I'm more upset that the MVC is as poor as it is today. And for a team like WSU that should be in the discussion for top 30-40, (I've lower my sights), these games I mentioned should be competitive, but wins, nothing less. Oh wait a minute, we're still down a little so far this year, but we did win these games.

[GoShockers89]

I'm more upset that the MVC is as poor as it is today. And for a team like WSU that should be in the discussion for top 30-40, (I've lower my sights), these games I mentioned should be competitive, but wins, nothing less. Oh wait a minute, we're still down a little so far this year, but we did win these games.

You and me both, brother. This league is such an anchor...when we were dominant, other teams could sell "being able to play in front of scouts against WSU" enough to generate some impressive flashes in the pan. Now that we've lost our elite status, there is just no talent in the conference.

[SB Shock]

Not disputing, just for discussion: The supposition that the underachievement is due to pitching/fielding I don't believe is valid.

Actually that is not the "supposition" at all. All this Bill James tool does is relate how runs scored and allowed and use it to a predicted winning %. It does not try to describe something as subjective of whether a team is under performing or not.

The difference between expected wins and actual wins does show whether a team has been "lucky" or "unlucky". Of course things could get smeared some if say you have some cupcakes where your offense is an outlier. But over a season it should all wash out.

In fact, in WSU's wins, the team has won by an average margin of 10.6 - 3.2. In the losses, scoring only an average of 2.8 - 9.7. The pitching staff could have allowed 2 fewer runs in every game and still not won any of those games.

I think with a lot of your comment below your trying to use this tool on a micro level when it is suppose to be used on a macro (e.g. overall look at the whole season). This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what this Bill James tool is useful for. It is not useful on a game to game level.

The genius of the stat is it allows you to look at your overall offense, pitching and defense and see where you can help your self more to win games.

"WSU is better in the offensive category by +2.51 runs per game. This has improved WSU record from last by +3 games." Hogwash!

So let me get this straight

a) your saying that WSU having a better winning percentage this year than last year is NOT because the offense is scoring almost 8 runs per game instead of 5.5 from last year

b) but it is because WSU pitching/defense is giving up almost 1 more run per game this year than last year?

Okay, you can believe whatever you want, but if WSU was only scoring at the same pace as last year, their record would be worse.

Don't get real comfortable about us continuing our hitting pace either (I hope we do).

1st, there is nothing about this team that I am comfortable with. 2nd All I have to do is look at my NCAA bracket prediction to understand I don't predict the future very well, nor do I think you have any ability to predict the future.

No doubt the staff is struggling, particularly with its depth.

It is a little more than that. There is only 1 weekend starter with a ERA below 4. Possible weekend starter out for the season. There is no effective closer, no effective long relief, no effective setup guy, questionable mid-week starters. The pitching staff is in a shambles.

[shocker3]

No doubt Charley's arm "injury" puts a damper on this boat race.

Got my fingers crossed big time on this one.

Nice to see the Shocks aggressive and with a good approach at the plate today. even with Evansville's pitching depth appearing to be pretty suspect.

A 17-2 seven inning win on the road is totally awesome. You don't see that very much. Unfortunately the injury to Charlie does put a damper on an otherwise fantastic road win. I hope he is okay. :wsu_posters: