2017 Predictions

[SHOCKvalue]

So approximately 2/3 of the comments on our 2017 predictions thread are about who should be the next coach?

2017 predicated predictions?

[Cdizzle]

So approximately 2/3 of the comments on our 2017 predictions thread are about who should be the next coach?

I think that's a prediction for this season, if you want to look at it that way.

[RoyalShock]

Maybe we should be line the Knicks fans and start hoping that the team will totally tank and force Boatright's hand. I really find that distasteful but I suppose the long-term health of the program is more improtant that one season.

[SB Shock]

You can get a fairly accurate idea of the potential winning % by looking at runs scored vs runs allowed. I have plotted WSU historical (modern era) runs score/runs allowed versus winning pct. Couple observations:

1. Pitching was atrocious. The 3 worst years on this plot was of course 2016 (worst), 2nd worst (1978) and 3rd (2015).

2. Hitting wasn't much better, but WSU has won 70% of their games in the past with equivalent offense.

I think WSU should have a target of winning 70% of their game. What that really means is this:

a. Pitching (Fielding to lesser extent) needs to completely remake itself and drop it runs allowed from 6.8 rpg to 4.5 to 5 (-1.8 to -2.3 rpg). Has this been done before? Yes in 1979, the pitching allowed -1.8 runs/game than in 1979. In 1991, the pitching improved -2.1 rpg. But in general an improvement comes in the range of 0 to -0.5 run/game 65% of the time. So we are talking "miracle work". Is the new pitching coach a miracle worker? Hope so.

b. Hitting or run scoring ability needs to improve by at least 1 to 1.5 runs/game (probably more realistically 2 runs/game). In the past WSU has improved by those types of numbers - 6 times. 4 of them were 1979, 1989, 1991 and 1998 (. In recent (if you call 2004 recent) was 2004 (+1.56) and 2008 (+1.68). Overall if the offense does improve, there is about 50% chance it will improve by at least 1 runs/game.

[THam]

If you adjusted WSU's historic runs/runs allowed data to reflect each individual year's aggregate NCAA scoring average, I wonder if you'd come to such a significant improvement being necessary at the plate. A 1 run, 1.5 run, and 2 run per game improvement would rank us #31,#18, #8 in the country, respectively. The bat regulation changes since 2000 have meant a .97 run/game drop from the 80s-90s NCAA average of 6.49 to last year's 5.52 NCAA average. On the flip side of this, our historically high ERA is even more depressing when considering it has come at a time of historically low scoring.



http://www.acs.psu.edu/drussell/bats/NCAA-stats.html

[SB Shock]

If you adjusted WSU's historic runs/runs allowed data to reflect each individual year's aggregate NCAA scoring average, I wonder if you'd come to such a significant improvement being necessary at the plate. A 1 run, 1.5 run, and 2 run per game improvement would rank us #31,#18, #8 in the country, respectively. The bat regulation changes since 2000 have meant a .97 run/game drop from the 80s-90s NCAA average of 6.49 to last year's 5.52 NCAA average. On the flip side of this, our historically high ERA is even more depressing when considering it has come at a time of historically low scoring.



http://www.acs.psu.edu/drussell/bats/NCAA-stats.html

I could have plot scoring difference (Run Scored - Runs Allowed) vs Winning Pct% - regardless of time frame there is a strong correlation. I chose to break it down by hitting/pitching so it more obvious where the improvements need to come from (pitching).

Ultimately There is multiple ways of getting there - all through hitting improvements, all through pitching/fielding improvements or some combination. Of course the low hanging fruit is PITCHING.

[SB Shock]

If WSU goal was to be equivalent to DBU (44-19 0.698) - offensively 6.8 rpg, defensively 4.7 rpg.

That would mean a offensive improvement of +0.9 rpg, and pitching improvement -2.1 rpg.

[THam]

If WSU goal was to be equivalent to DBU (44-19 0.698) - offensively 6.8 rpg, defensively 4.7 rpg.

That would mean a offensive improvement of +0.9 rpg, and pitching improvement -2.1 rpg.

For me, a half run improvement is probably par for the course this year offensively. Anything more probably makes this a top 50+ offense. Sticking with the golf metaphor, the pitching/defense needs to probably hole out from the fairway this year with a 1.5 rpg+ improvement to get this team back to respectable. Plugging those numbers into a Baseball Pythagorean Expectation Calculator, those numbers would mean we should expect a .593 W% and a regular season record of 33-23. I would be happy with that sort of year provided the team seems well positioned to take another step forward in 2018.

https://captaincalculator.com/sports/baseball/pythagorean-expectation-calculator/

[shockerfanmas]

Obligatory plug for Mark Standiford as my preferred candidate. He's more qualified than Hoop IMO, and not just by a little bit - preferring Hoop involves placing a great deal of faith in learning to recruit and build his network among HS and JUCOs, for the first time, on the fly. His experience so far is largely equivalent to a hoops coach successfully leading the local D-League squad.

That said, I would be enthusiastic and incredibly supportive of either Standiford or Hooper and frankly would love to see both on the next staff (barring a miraculous turnaround by the current one) - one as head honcho, the other as the hitting coach.

I have to agree, Standiford and/or Hooper need to have a place on the coaching staff at WSU. I would also like to vote for Pat Hon as a possible pitching coach, if he wanted it. I would think a staff of Hooper, Standiford, and Hon would get this team back to where they used to be, or at least a lot closer!

[shockfan89_]

For me, a half run improvement is probably par for the course this year offensively. Anything more probably makes this a top 50+ offense. Sticking with the golf metaphor, the pitching/defense needs to probably hole out from the fairway this year with a 1.5 rpg+ improvement to get this team back to respectable. Plugging those numbers into a Baseball Pythagorean Expectation Calculator, those numbers would mean we should expect a .593 W% and a regular season record of 33-23. I would be happy with that sort of year provided the team seems well positioned to take another step forward in 2018.

I agree that this is probably the best possibly outcome, and I think given the schedule this would be considered a moral victory. The problem is this is year 4 and this should have occurred in year 2 or 3.

The other issue is a .593 winning percentage, while it would be the best in the HCTB era, would be almost the worst winning percentage since 1978 when WSU restarted the baseball program (the only exception being 2009 when we lost half a recruiting class and nearly all of our JRs to the pro-draft after back-to-back Super Regional appearances in 2007 and 2008).

[WheatShock]

My predictions.

1. We will be mediocre at best, probably a slight improvement over last year.

2. The AD will use the slight improvement as justification to retain HCTB.

[RoyalShock]

I predict they will install nets down the first base side seats.

[RoyalShock]

Oh, look, I was right . . .

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/wichita-state/shockwaves/article127738949.html

[SPEShockAlum]

Oh, look, I was right . . .



http://www.kansas.com/sports/college...127738949.html

Smart move.

[1972Shocker]

Smart move.

I agree. Although at this stage not sure there will be many, if any fans to protect. Those aren't the greatest seats in the late afternoon, early evening hours on a sunny day.