2024 Games of Interest

[WuDrWu]

Also to be fair, we've played more than twice as many Q1 games as any other team in the American.

[WuDrWu]

A quick update on this week's series around the American:

Memphis (8-13) at UAB (9-12) Weather looks good for all 3 games starting at 5pm tonight. Not a huge series to us, but if pressed I'd just as soon Memphis not have a lot of hope when we roll into town next week. Hoping for a 2-1 UAB series win or a sweep. But honestly, no outcome here affects us much either way. The loser however, is in deep crap.

USF (9-12) is in San Antonio to battle the Roadrunners (13-8). First pitch 6pm tonight. Sunday looks dicey, look for a modification in the schedule. I'm on the fence here. Probably best for WSU to see UTSA take the series, even sweep. I expect a 2-1 series win for the Roadrunners but any outcome is possible given these 2 teams.

Charlotte (11-10) at WSU (10-11). Huge series for both ballclubs but more so for us. Weather looks great all weekend although Sunday is getting a little dicey. Won't be surprised to see the Sunday start moved back to noon or 11, depending on conditions.

FAU (10-11) at Rice (9-12). First pitch at 630 tonight. Like San Antonio, weather is an issue Sunday. Expect a change, probably a Saturday DH. Both teams desperately need to win this series, but with Rice traveling to ECU next week, their need is greater. I'm not sure it will matter though. I expect FAU to win the series 2-1.

ECU (16-5) at Tulane (10-11). First pitch 630 tonight. Weather looks good. ECU likely to be irritated losing their last 2. Tulane is a dangerous team the way they swing the bats. ECU might be getting a couple of pitchers back healthy (scary). Hoping for a Pirate sweep. We'll lose a tiebreak that includes Tulane, so getting them out of the picture is good for us.

Best case scenario after this weekend's game would be :

ECU 19-5
UTSA 15-9
WSU 13-11
FAU 12-12
Charlotte 11-13
UAB 11-13
Rice 10-14
USF 10-14
Tulane 10-14
Memphis 9-15

In this scenario, we're in Clearwater no matter what happens and we're in control of 3rd and it would take a lot to go wrong to lose 3rd. Gaining 2nd would even be more likely than falling out of 3rd. BUT, we're a long way from there.


Well the most important piece, WSU winning tonight, is checked.

Tulane jumped on Trey Yesavage for 5 runs on 7 hits in 5.2 and had the Pirates down 5-1. ECU tied it at 5, then in the bottom of the 9th, Schulz tripled off the wall (almost caught, but almost a HR too) and Tulane had a runner at 3rd no out. I figured they would walk the bases full (no choice really) but they chose to pitch to Lombardi who they ended up hitting. Then they intentionally walked Cline to load the bases (like they should have done without throwing a pitch but whatever) then Shenkman hit Tuft on the 1st pitch to drive in the game winner. 6-5 Green Wave

USF 2 UTSA 5


Millan (no relation) homered leading off the 9th to bring FAU into a 4-4 tie with Rice. Rice loaded the bases in the bottom of the 9th with 1 out, and a ground ball to short and the Owls couldn't quite turn 2 and the winning run scores 5-4 Rice


UAB jumped on Memphex early and run-ruled the NILrs 12-2. At 8-14 the Tigers are up against the wall the rest of this weekend.


Desired winners tomorrow in order of importance: Shockers, Pirates, Blazers, Owls (F), USF.

[Cdizzle]

Y'all can be reasonable and root for ECU if you want.

All I'm saying is 1st place is available until it isn't.

[WuDrWu]

Y'all can be reasonable and root for ECU if you want.

All I'm saying is 1st place is available until it isn't.

I love the fight, but best we can do is 16-11, worst ECU can do is 16-11. We lose the 2 way tie break for the 1 seed, and we finish 3rd in a three way tie with ECU and UTSA (ECU 4-2, UTSA 3-3, WSU 2-4). It is possible for a 4 way tie with Tulane at 16-11 too. And we finish 4th. (ECU 4-5, UTSA 6-3, Tulane 5-4, WSU 3-6).

[Cdizzle]

Oh I know the 1 seed can't happen. But you can hang a banner.

[WuDrWu]

All games today at 2pm EXCEPT ECU at Tulane which will be 630 in New Orleans.

[WuDrWu]

Oh the 1 seed can't happen. But you can hang a banner.

[WuDrWu]

Again, the most important piece to the puzzle was WSU winning and job well done.


Tulane just flat outplayed ECU tonight winning 7-3. Green Wave will try to sweep the Pirates tomorrow.




USF wins at UTSA 6-3. Series tied at 1.





Memphis scored 1 in the 9th to tie UAB, then 1 in the 10th to lead 4-3 (should have scored more) but UAB walked them off with a 2 run tater 5-4.






Rice took the series from FAU splitting a DH today, losing 5-6 then winning tonight 5-4.






Tulane isn't doing us any favors, but WSU is taking care of their own business quite nicely and most everything else is falling into place.


ECU 16-7
UTSA 14-9
Tulane 12-11
WSU 12-11
Charlotte 11-12
UAB 11-12
Rice 11-13
FAU 11-13
USF 10-13
MemphEx 8-15

A perfect day tomorrow would see wins from WSU, ECU, USF and UAB as far as I am concerned.

It is still possible, with 4 games remaining, we could finish anywhere from a tie for 1st (as the 2 seed) to 10th and out of Clearwater. Both would take nearly impossible finishes, but we haven't secured a trip to the conference tourney just yet. In fact, only ECU, UTSA and Tulane have punched their ticket.


Next week is Rice @ ECU, WSU @ MemphEx, Tulane @ Charlotte, UTSA @ FAU & UAB @ USF


Possible disaster finish:

ECU 18-9
UTSA 15-12
Charlotte 15-12
UAB 13-14
Rice 13-14
FAU 13-14
USF 12-15
Tulane 12-15 (wins tiebreaker vs both MemphEx and WSU)
MemphEx 12-15 (wins tiebreaker vs WSU)
WSU 12-15 (lose the tiebreaker as we'd be 1-8)

[Onegreatracer]

Beat Charlotte tomorrow and take 2/3 against Memphis - would need minimal help to keep us out of the 4.

4-0 and I think we’re playing with house money comfortably as the 3 even if the sky falls other places in the conf.

[Cdizzle]

Championship still available. Just sayin

[Cdizzle]

Nm.

[Onegreatracer]

If we sweep Memphis:
Need Charlotte to take at least one at home from Tulane

If Rice could sweep ECU and FAU take at least 2 from UTSA, we would hang an AAC regular season banner. Not happening.

If we take 2 of 3, things get a LOT more complicated, but they key would be Charlotte winning 2 of 3 instead of just one.

If we take 1 of 3, believe the 3 seed becomes nearly mathematically impossible.

The AAC uses group standings for multi-team tiebreakers. So if we can get into a 3 way tiebreaker with a team like Charlotte that we beat up on it could help our chances tremendously, compared to a tiebreak we lose vs Tulane

[Onegreatracer]

IMO, with the two double elimination “brackets” into a single title game, being the 2,3,6 or 7 and avoiding ECU is the most important thing. If we were in a situation where a loss the last day guaranteed us 6 or 7 and a win could leave us 4 or 5….

[Stickboy46]

With ECU reeling (lost 5 in a row), I'm not sure it really matters where we land. Just get in and win.

[Cdizzle]

Just win, babay