WSU vs. New Mexico

[WuDrWu]

The AAC won't finish 10th. It's still early and the Ivy is 9th and won't be 9th. AAC probably finishes 5,6,7 in the RPI.

[1972Shocker]

oklahomamick

That still leaves the midweek games, and like I said, they look messy right now. There's literally no one we can count on. Somebody, probably a couple of guys (Boyer and Cranz are the most likely) has to step up and "get it" for us to be where, I think, we should be.

Here are the mid-week games remaining on the schedule which is essenially our Big XII schedule for the year.
03/22 Oklahoma
03/23 Kansas
03/29 Missouri State
03/30 @ Kansas
04/05 Oklahoma State
04/12 @ Oklahoma State
04/18 Kansas State
04/19 @ Oklahoma
04/26 Oklahoma State
05/03 @ Kansas State

Going 5-5 in these 10 games (assuming they are all played) would be a really good result but with our mid-week pitching issues that seems pretty unlikely.

[Kung Wu]

Define "nice"?

Good point. I really hope there is an improvement over last season. We were 18-13 with a .574 win percent. I'm not sure how tough last year's schedule was though, but I have to imagine our non-con SOS is MUCH tougher this year. That may be offset by a weaker conference SOS though. I don't know these things. But at the end of the season, I hope to hear you guys saying that there was an improvement, and we did it with a younger squad.

[Shockm]

Good point. I really hope there is an improvement over last season. We were 18-13 with a .574 win percent. I'm not sure how tough last year's schedule was though, but I have to imagine our non-con SOS is MUCH tougher this year. That may be offset by a weaker conference SOS though. I don't know these things. But at the end of the season, I hope to hear you guys saying that there was an improvement, and we did it with a younger squad.

Maybe you know this, but we were 31-18 overall and 18-13 in the AAC on a 4 game (Covid Schedule) per team schedule. This year, we will play a 24 game AAC schedule. The equivalent of an 18-13 record this year would be 14-10 in the league. We will not get even close to our 13-5 Out of conference record from last year. 500 (16-16) for OOC play is as good as we will probably be this year (with our lack of pitching depth, our mid week schedule could produce an even lower record), so if we do equal last year's Conference winning percentage with a 14-10, our total record would be 30-26. I think that our conference record will be the best place to judge this year's progress. Our lack of experienced (returners) pitching this year is taking a toll.

[Kung Wu]

Maybe you know this, but we were 31-18 overall and 18-13 in the AAC on a 4 game (Covid Schedule) per team schedule. This year, we will play a 24 game AAC schedule. The equivalent of an 18-13 record this year would be 14-10 in the league. We will not get even close to our 13-5 Out of conference record from last year. 500 (16-16) for OOC play is as good as we will probably be this year (with our lack of pitching depth, our mid week schedule could produce an even lower record), so if we do equal last year's Conference winning percentage with a 14-10, our total record would be 30-26. I think that our conference record will be the best place to judge this year's progress. Our lack of experienced (returners) pitching this year is taking a toll.

Oops, yup, I brainfarted and copied the conference record when I meant the overall. The .574 was the overall win percentage.

Your 14-10 and 30-26 equivalencies will be interesting to watch.

It'll be even better if we can improve using a younger staff -- but I'll take it any way we can get it.

[1972Shocker]

We will not get even close to our 13-5 Out of conference record from last year. 500 (16-16) for OOC play is as good as we will probably be this year (with our lack of pitching depth, our mid week schedule could produce an even lower record).

Per my count the Shocks record against non-AAC opponents last year was 12-8 (.600). Otherwise, I pretty much agree with your outlook. The Shocks are 9-10 in non-con play with 1 game vs Missouri State and 9 games vs Big XII opponents remaining. Based on the depth issues with our pitching staff finishing at even 14-15 in non-con play would be a very good result for this team.

But while a final record of 28-25 might seem okay for this team I would not classify that as a nice season in general. I think I would set the over under for this team at .500 overall and not sure whether i would take the over or under. We are going to find out an awful lot with the 10 games in the next 2 weeks.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Wait, we lost 2 of 3 to New Mexico??? Am I seeing that correctly? Unbelievable...

[Shockm]

Per my count the Shocks record against non-AAC opponents last year was 12-8 (.600). Otherwise, I pretty much agree with your outlook. The Shocks are 9-10 in non-con play with 1 game vs Missouri State and 9 games vs Big XII opponents remaining. Based on the depth issues with our pitching staff finishing at even 14-15 in non-con play would be a very good result for this team.

But while a final record of 28-25 might seem okay for this team I would not classify that as a nice season in general. I think I would set the over under for this team at .500 overall and not sure whether i would take the over or under. We are going to find out an awful lot with the 10 games in the next 2 weeks.

https://goshockers.com/sports/baseball/schedule/2021

• OVERALL31-23
• PCT.574
• CONF18-13
• PCT.581

Nope, neither 28-25 (your math), nor the 30-26 (my math), I mentioned, is not a nice season. Pretty much agreement is a true statement.

[1972Shocker]

Nope, neither 28-25 (your math), nor the 30-26 (my math), I mentioned, is not a nice season. Pretty much agreement is a true statement.

BTW, I wasn't factoring any AAC Tournament play in my 28-25 number. Just the 19 played to date, the 10 remaining non-con and the 24 AAC games. 53 games total assuming no rainouts.

But at this point I am most interested to see how this team handles the challenge of the next 2 weeks. Maybe, they will change my outlook (of course, that can go two different ways).

[Shockm]

BTW, I wasn't factoring any AAC Tournament play in my 28-25 number. Just the 19 played to date, the 10 remaining non-con and the 24 AAC games. 53 games total assuming no rainouts.

But at this point I am most interested to see how this team handles the challenge of the next 2 weeks. Maybe, they will change my outlook (of course, that can go two different ways).

I'm not counting those either. We are now 9-10 (19 games), and if you look at the remaining schedule, we have 37 games remaining which totals to 56 games (thus my 30-26 finishing record if we go 500 in remaining non conference games, and 14-10 in the league (these numbers are just possibilities, and not predictions).

[1972Shocker]

I'm not counting those either. We are now 9-10 (19 games), and if you look at the remaining schedule, we have 37 games remaining which totals to 56 games (thus my 30-26 finishing record if we go 500 in remaining non conference games, and 14-10 in the league (these numbers are just possibilities, and not predictions).

That's right we have 27 AAC games as we play Houston 6 times. So, I agree, 30-26 is good number for the Shocks upper limit.

I thought that playing a team twice was a Covid special. Guess not. Not sure it makes a lot so sense to me though.

I still would put the over/under on winning percentage at .500 overall.

Not sure about Houston this year. Their non-con schedule looks a little suspect.

[1972Shocker]

Rodden Rolls to Honor Roll Selection

https://goshockers.com/news/2022/3/21/baseball-rodden-rolls-to-honor-roll-selection.aspx

Rodden powered the Wichita State offense over the course of three games against New Mexico, finishing the weekend 7-for-12 (.583) with a double, two home runs, five runs scored, and six RBI. The sophomore drew two walks and struck out just once during the series.

[1972Shocker]

I see that Brock Rodden is listed as a sophomore on the roster but Sawyre Thornhill is listed as a junior. It appears Thornhill played 3 years of juco ball. Not sure I have seen that before.

Anyway looks like we potentially have Rodden for two more years and Thornhill for 1 more year. Both these guys have been pleasant surprises so far this year.

[SB Shock]

I assume that ranking is based on the RPI. Is that what the NCAA selection committee primarily uses in evaluating at-large invites?

If that's the case, then yes the AAC is looking like a one bid league with only 2 teams in the Top 100 of the RPI. ECU is at #74 and UCF is at #95.

The only thing baseball has is RPI and the eye test for the P5.

[1972Shocker]

The only thing baseball has is RPI and the eye test for the P5.

WarrenNolan.com has his ELO system which if I understand it was developed for Chess players. Each team's Elo rating is represented by a number that reflects that teams's results in previous rated games. After each rated game, their ratings are adjusted according to the outcome of the encounter.

While people usually think of the Elo rating system as a way of measuring a team's absolute strength, that is not the case. This system calculates the probable outcome of a team's games against other players.

Whether it is a better system then the RPI I have no idea. Whey you posted that the American was 10th in RPI I check warrennolan.com and saw that the AAC was 5th in conference ELO. However, today the AAC is 8th in RPI and 7th in ELO.

Right now warrenolan.com has the Shocks at #75 in the ELO rankings and they are #127 in RPI.