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**WuShock16** · May 14, 2018, 01:05 PM

Honest question: what is the "KenPom" of college baseball? Based on the RPI numbers (I know, I know...RPI typically sucks), I am not seeing why people think our resume is so awful. It certainly has flaws, but show me an at-large bubble team that doesn't.

I know the conference losing record hurts, but right or wrong, there will be at-large teams with losing conference records. Might even be a host with a .500ish league record. (For the record, I am NOT saying that we should host).

The Shockers only have two losses to triple-digit RPI teams. Ohio State, another bubble type team, has seven of those. Mississippi State has five.

I was curious as to what other metrics are out there for college baseball so that I could get a better handle on the team's at-large hopes.

The Shockers certainly have to go 4-0 this week but I still think there is a shot for an at-large. We'll see. Just take things one game, one inning, one at-bat, and one pitch at a time.

**SB Shock** · May 14, 2018, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by WuShock16 View Post

Honest question: what is the "KenPom" of college baseball? Based on the RPI numbers (I know, I know...RPI typically sucks),

Boyd's World

http://www.boydsworld.com/

He has the RPI and ISR (which would be the KenPom equivalent). You will find WSU has a respectable No. 28 ISR

I am not seeing why people think our resume is so awful.

Some people have an agenda and they are afraid that they admit WSU has a resume that at least on the bubble that Butler will be retained.

It certainly has flaws, but show me an at-large bubble team that doesn't.

You are correct. WSU resume is not awful, it does have some warts especially the conference record (and this may be the wart that keeps them from getting an at-large). I posted some other resume of P5 schools - they each have different flaws.

**C0|dB|00ded** · May 14, 2018, 01:54 PM

Historical recruiting advantages are gone forever

Our golden era was a generation ago

Nobody comes out to the games

Butler had no chance and neither will Marshall's successor

Well guess what? Pretty much all the teams in the AAC are doing more than us with less. That's the bottom line.

We pay SEC-level coaching salaries
We have better than average SEC-level facilities
We have a top 10 fan base when we're competitive

When did Shocker fans turn into a shivering pile of excuse-making jelly? I stayed away from this board too long it appears. Time to get our swagger back folks - this is embarrassing...

T

...:cool:

**C0|dB|00ded** · May 14, 2018, 02:02 PM

Stop the ***** defeatist, *****-ass chatter. At the end of the season you cull the dead wood and move on. You pay the next guy at least what you paid the previous guy and evaluate the results going forward. 400k WILL bring us a better coach than Butler... eventually. There will be a day when the stands are full again and the hill is rockin'. Keep the faith but remain vigilant against those who are willing to settle. NEVER settle.

T

...:cool:

**shockfan89_** · May 14, 2018, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

Some people have an agenda and they are afraid that they admit WSU has a resume that at least on the bubble that Butler will be retained.

There are others of us that are so used to playing in a conference where you have to finish 1st or maybe a close 2nd in conference play or you are automatically disqualified from at-large consideration. I am one that can admit we have had great non-conference results (the first half of the season). I really struggle with the fact that anyone around .333 in their conference would even be in the discussion for an at-large. I need to remember everyone else has played Memphis and if we sweep this weekend, 10-13-1 looks much better than 7-13-1.

I will admit that I am one of those fearful that an at-large regional birth would be another in a long list of excuses used to retain HCTB. That being said, I have no faith that we will have a coaching change if we don't make a regional. My biggest concern is a contract extension. I think HCTB has proven he can recruit hitters, especially guys that can knock the crap out of fastballs, in fastball counts. I have lots of other concerns with Butler as a head coach, and until our conference collapse, I was very excited about what PCMS had done with the staff this year. There are way too many question marks at the end of year 5 for me to be willing to continue this experiment.

**ABC** · May 14, 2018, 03:12 PM

What is Butler's current compensation package? And where does it rank nationally?

**Play Angry** · May 14, 2018, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post

I'm not sure I agree with this assessment (reasoned as it is). Comparing basketball and baseball attendance is a very tricky idea. Weather is SUCH a significant factor. I'll grant that it's also an excuse. But I'm a pretty big WSU baseball fan, and in the best of times I'm guessing I will only make it out to 10-ish games a year. To me, that's just how baseball attendance works. I can't go spend 4 hours at the ballpark 3 times a week.

Regarding fans not supporting a Top 50 team, I feel like many of us are on "fool me 4 times" level of skepticism. The computer numbers said one thing, and a lot of us who have watched this trainwreck for the last 4 years said "I hope so, but I'm not buying it yet." And frankly, that is justified based the past several years, and proven out by the past 2 months. You made a simple, but great post in the game thread yesterday, about "this is frustrating." This has been frustrating for a long time. Frustration on top of frustration on top of frustration gets difficult to accept. Baseball is also very interesting because it is easier as a fan to assess singular coaching decisions than in other sports. This happens at all levels. Fans hammer away on managers for things like continually hitting Escobar at the top of the Royals order. When the offense sucks, the fans look right. When the team wins a WS, the manager looks right. So far, there have been an abundance of "hitting Escobar 1" head-scratchers countered by a dearth of success.

I haven't been to a game this season. They ALMOST fooled me for a 4th time but by the time the weather and my schedule worked, that illusion had passed. If Butler is the coach next season, I highly doubt I attend a game next season. If someone else is the coach next season, I expect I will make it out to several games to demonstrate support. I understand that it takes time to rebuild a team/program. But if in year 5, given resources in-line with your competition, you're still landing in the bottom half of your conference....it's time (maybe past time) to assess what is best for the program. And I hope with a lot less "guys this is hard, we could do worse, you don't know how this works" and a lot more "we'll keep trying until we fix this" than has been evident around the program and on this board.

This all leads to an important question that I think we've all been dancing around the past year or so:

How does Joe Public demonstrate both support for the program, and that current performance is not acceptable?

Joe Public shows support by buying tickets and going to games. Maybe chipping in his drop in the pond for fundraising efforts. Joe Public can't afford to do things like offer buyout money to demonstrate his frustration.

There are some well-stated points above and, although I disagree with some (certainly not all) of the assertions, I appreciate the thought and eloquence put into the response.

The question of Joe Public is interesting - this is a time where the vast, vast majority of our fans of the university's flagship sport (hoops) have never known a time where we weren't in a period of sustained success. Many people who went to WSU in the 70s and 80s and now pay significant bucks to tag along to the conference tournament and road venues had zero participation in the dark years between 1990-2002, and their fondest sports memories of that decade involve Chad May, Michael Bishop, Greg Ostertag or whoever else played for the semi-local successful teams of that era (many of the same will also deny this now but, funny enough, they can't name more than 2 players from the entire Scott Thompson era without hopping on CBB Reference or the GoShockers media guide). Boy do they know either or both of the 1981 and 2013 teams by heart, though.

The core that followed and continued to support the hoops team during those seasons, and similarly the core that does so now during baseball's "wilderness" years with season tickets and financial support (both for existing coaches and when the time comes, to usher one out the door and a new one in) bristles at the attitude of "we suck now, I'm yanking my bucks to show that I don't like the sucktitude and will ***** loudly but trust me I promise I'll be back when we finally do find that ass-kicker that everyone else will help pay for while they make sure the program stays afloat in the meantime" - I understand this approach, but disagree with it wholeheartedly, even as someone who gives a pittance compared to the highest level supporters. I also recognize the strawman I just created takes gross liberties with the approach you outlined above and am not attributing this to you specifically - I do think it fits with a large percentage of our few remaining baseball fans, though (just as it did with the legions of disappearing Shocker hoops diehards during the 90s), and it's one that I struggle to understand as someone who missed about 5 home games over a half dozen years during my most well-attended stretch for baseball and as a continued season ticket holder living 350 miles away.

It was really, really easy to be a Yankees fan from 1920-1965, and it's been really, really easy to be a Shocker hoops fan from 2003 - 2018. It was hard to be a WSU basketball fan in the 90s (although I still would not trade it for anything as those years made the success so much sweeter in recent seasons than for the legions of bandwagoners who boarded the train during the NIT years under MT) but without them there would have been no MT and no HCGM. It's also hard to be a WSU baseball fan in recent seasons (though nothing remotely close to hoops in the 90s) but really, as true fans, aren't difficult periods part and parcel of fanhood? If the vast majority jump off the train and withdraw support during the downturns to wait for proven results, the whole thing dies of starvation. We're not at that point yet, but we've got maybe one bullet left in the chamber before it rings true.

As for weather and other reasons, I hear you but don't empathize very well since I've dropped a solid amount following us to Wichita and other locales this season to catch games in **** weather (including a couple where I sincerely believe we were outnumbered at home by the opposing fans of schools I sincerely dislike and would have imagined at one time to be legit baseball rivals) - I truly can't imagine living in Wichita and attending less than 20 games unless someone's finances/work/family life unequivocally prevented it. Probably just another level of crazy on my end, but that's fine and recognized.

None of the rambling above is an argument in favor of or against HCTB's continued employment. Really, it applies regardless of who is in charge. I hope in the coming years our fans decide to return to the park and render the inscription put long ago on the entrance a statement of truth.

**C0|dB|00ded** · May 14, 2018, 03:54 PM

Each human is apportioned only a certain number of days on this earth. It behooves us to value every one. I cannot fault the guy who'd rather spend an evening doing something with his family less heartache inducing. The fans who soldier on to every game regardless of the product on the field have my respect... and my sympathy.

I also believe one would be remiss to call a fan that doesn't want to endure 4 hours of piss-poor baseball a bandwagoner. Bandwagoners change their allegiance based on who's winning. True Shocker fans may stay home and ***** on message boards, but they'll never change their stripes.

T

...:cool:

**shockerfanmas** · May 15, 2018, 11:36 AM

The latest projections at College Sports Madness have Wichita State as a #2 seed it looks like. This is crazy. I'm not sure how credible they are or how many other projections are out there. Talent wise, there's no doubt this team could and should be a #1 seed. What we've seen on the field is more deserving of a #4 seed if anything. I had the same issue with the softball tournament, in which we are really starting to see the power conference bias. The moral of the story in baseball and softball seems to be that it doesn't matter what your conference record is, if you play in a power conference, have a strong SOS and RPI, and have a winning overall record, then you've got a chance. This is crap. I really think there should be a rule where if you are under .500 in your conference, you don't qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

**Cdizzle** · May 15, 2018, 01:21 PM

I don't have time today for a significant response, but I will reply to a part of @Play Angry's post that I think is very significant. He points out the importance of the Stallworth faithful who maintained WSU basketball until the program was restored. I agree with this concept entirely. I understand and agree with "you have to pay first." But there are two very relevant problems with the argument as it pertains to the current situation. One should be fairly universally accepted and is the primary point, and the 2nd probably has a wide range of reactions depending on your feelings on the matter.

1. The Stallworth faithful weren't told they were idiots and Year 6 of Scott Thompson was a good idea.
2. The Stallworth faithful didn't watch Stallworth unceremoniously run out of town.

**WuDrWu** · May 15, 2018, 01:31 PM

I won't argue with anyone that says Gene should have been allowed to stay as long as he wanted no matter the cost to the program or University. There's no upside.

But let's be clear about point 2.....Gene was offered a transitional position with a large presence and a very "ceremonious" exit. Gene declined. There were several issues with him running the program, some minor and others not so minor. Was it handled perfectly? I am not sure that it was possible to be handled perfectly, but make no mistake, Gene had a choice to be celebrated and he chose otherwise. And I am a huge Gene fan, both then and now. Perhaps even more now given his attempts to make things right. That has taken a lot from him I know. But I am glad he's back involved with WSU Baseball.

**Play Angry** · May 15, 2018, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post

I don't have time today for a significant response, but I will reply to a part of @Play Angry's post that I think is very significant. He points out the importance of the Stallworth faithful who maintained WSU basketball until the program was restored. I agree with this concept entirely. I understand and agree with "you have to pay first." But there are two very relevant problems with the argument as it pertains to the current situation. One should be fairly universally accepted and is the primary point, and the 2nd probably has a wide range of reactions depending on your feelings on the matter.

1. The Stallworth faithful weren't told they were idiots and Year 6 of Scott Thompson was a good idea.
2. The Stallworth faithful didn't watch Stallworth unceremoniously run out of town.

I think on the first part of 1, there's been one, maybe two posters on here who have made posts along those lines over the course of the last couple seasons in strident defense of HCTB (during both the nosedive of 2016-2017 and this season's rebound), and IIRC it wasn't engaging the baseball equivalent of the Stallworth faithful who actually go to games (there's a poster or two on the other end of the spectrum whose quotes make similarly poor representatives for that side of the argument). On the second part of 1, seems like this remains up in the air depending on how the season finishes, but I do expect Todd will not be terminated after the season. How much of that determination is financial and how much is based on this season's improvement is up for guessing for about 99.8% of us.

On 2, those folks didn't watch Dave or Cleo get kicked in the nuts but they did soldier on after the other Gene was shitcanned with 0 losing records during his tenure because his carousing became a liability and embarrassment (sounds familiar, right), and then they kept on trucking after one decent hire (Fogler) followed by back-to-back-to-back unsuccessful ones, which included stolen cars, pistols at practice (not for rabbit hunting) and other assorted embarrassments we've thankfully avoided in baseball forever and since then in hoops.

**Cdizzle** · May 15, 2018, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by WuDrWu View Post

I won't argue with anyone that says Gene should have been allowed to stay as long as he wanted no matter the cost to the program or University. There's no upside.

But let's be clear about point 2.....Gene was offered a transitional position with a large presence and a very "ceremonious" exit. Gene declined. There were several issues with him running the program, some minor and others not so minor. Was it handled perfectly? I am not sure that it was possible to be handled perfectly, but make no mistake, Gene had a choice to be celebrated and he chose otherwise. And I am a huge Gene fan, both then and now. Perhaps even more now given his attempts to make things right. That has taken a lot from him I know. But I am glad he's back involved with WSU Baseball.

My point is not about how/why it happened, or that it shouldn't have happened. Folks can chase their tails on that all day. My point is that it did happen, reality is unknown to a large number of us, and as such it is a factor in how the program is assessed. Ignoring that it is a factor, and/or demeaning people that have differing opinions on the matter is ignoring part of the problem. It's a part that doesn't really have anything to do with the current coach specifically, but a lot to do with fan support.

**Cdizzle** · May 15, 2018, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by Play Angry View Post

I think on the first part of 1, there's been one, maybe two posters on here who have made posts along those lines over the course of the last couple seasons in strident defense of HCTB (during both the nosedive of 2016-2017 and this season's rebound)

It was a poor choice of words by me to include "calling people idiots," as you are right on this point. A much larger number of folks, up to and including the current AD, have made comments in strident support of the current coach (and by proxy, his performance, given that the comments have been made after Year 4 and during Year 5) that demean fans who do not feel that the current performance of the program is acceptable; even less so given the resources and history the program has.

Originally posted by Play Angry View Post

, and IIRC it wasn't engaging the baseball equivalent of the Stallworth faithful who actually go to games

Not sure I agree with this, though admittedly some of that is based on my own perception of my own fanhood. This starts circling back to the basketball v. baseball Joe Public and attendance discussion we started yesterday.

Originally posted by Play Angry View Post

(there's a poster or two on the other end of the spectrum whose quotes make similarly poor representatives for that side of the argument).

Undoubtedly. Though I would say at this point the preponderance of evidence sits in their cart, poor approach notwithstanding.

Originally posted by Play Angry View Post

On the second part of 1, seems like this remains up in the air depending on how the season finishes, but I do expect Todd will not be terminated after the season. How much of that determination is financial and how much is based on this season's improvement is up for guessing for about 99.8% of us.

Agree wholeheartedly, and I think that's the part that is hardest to swallow. Consider this to be part of my earlier comments about fans who believe current performance is not acceptable being ignored. What does Joe Public do? Does he keep going to 5-10 games of frustrating baseball every year? That's akin to "thank you sir may I have another."

If you have a favorite restaurant that serves your favorite club sandwich, the first time they serve you your favorite club sandwich and it tastes like a turd sandwich, you think it's a fluke and you write it off. The 2nd time they serve you a turd sandwich you get kindof disappointed that this might be a thing. The 3rd time you go back because you have always loved this restaurant and you want it to make it and they serve you a turd sandwich you complain about it to the manager. They promise everything will be better the next time you come in. So you try it one more time, against your better judgment. And the first couple bites remind you of your favorite club. But you soon discover it's still got some turds on it. When you approach the manager again, he says that it's a great sandwich and other people have grown to like it.

How many turd sandwiches do I have to eat before it's unreasonable to keep going back? Part of being a fan is eating the occasional turd sandwich. And sometimes eating some other things that don't taste great. Part of running a successful restaurant is changing your cook if he keeps serving turd sandwiches.

**Play Angry** · May 15, 2018, 05:13 PM

OT but just wanted to give props to Cdizzle for being a quality poster and one of the best on SN. Even when we disagree (which is rare), you do a great job of conveying your points persuasively and with good humor.

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