At-large chances

[Veritas]

Should not / deserve not to get an at large since they will not finish at least .500 in AAC.
Need to win the AAC tournament or send the Butler packing.
They have the talent to win the AAC tournament but probably not the consistency.
I will probably go anyway.

[ShockerFever]

Win tomorrow, and sweep next weekend and we will be in good shape based on our nitty gritty. Anything less will require some level of heroics in Florida.

Does our nitty gritty really look good with a sub.500 conference record and 1 good weekend series win the entire season?

And with all of these scenarios people are bringing up, do you really think this team is going to do all of that? How confident are you in them completing that scenario?

[ShockerFever]

Should not / deserve not to get an at large since they will not finish at least .500 in AAC.
Need to win the AAC tournament or send the Butler packing.
They have the talent to win the AAC tournament but probably not the consistency.
I will probably go anyway.

I'm in this camp, well the second sentence not withstanding.

Lots of posters here would clamor in basketball for teams with below .500 conference records not being allowed at-large consideration. Even in baseball too. And now that we have moved into that scenario, that mindset has changed. Just strange.

We have a couple really good players and some fairly good but inconsistent other ones. But after seeing how this team pitches, how they field, how they execute, how they perform on weekends, etc., are there many people here that believe WSU is one of the 32 best teams in the country not winning a conference tournament? Do they look the part? And more importantly, have they played the part?

[C0|dB|00ded]

Is there any way to root for the Shox to make the post-season and for Butler to be relieved at the same time? I'm in that camp.

If that camp doesn't exist I'll have to hop in 'Fever's camp and pray for the entire operation to go down in flames the rest of the way. There's just a little bit more season left. Not much pain potential remaining compared to what's been endured under Butler's watch since 2014.

Just reach down and squeeze your testes while clicking your heels together and chanting "there's no coach like Gene..." oops.


T


...:cool:

[SB Shock]

Should not / deserve not to get an at-large since they will not finish at least .500 in AAC.

So is SWOMO more deserving to go to the tournament than WSU? SWOMO has a 15-2 conference record?

RPI - WSU 28, SWOMO 44
Tier 1 Record - WSU 7-11, SWOMO 1-7
Tier 2 Record - WSU 6-4, SWOMO 11-3
Tier 3 Record - WSU 8-2, SWOMO 7-1
Tier 4 Record - WSU 11-0, SWOMO 13-3

If WSU was playing in the MVC - I think they roll through the league.

There will be some teams that will be selected to go to the tournament with sub 0.500 records. The NCAA selection criteria are to look at the full body of work. If WSU is one of them, good for them, the move to the AAC paid off. That is the benefits of playing in a major conference.

The key thing is you have to find a way to get to the NCAA tournament because you never know when a team will put it all together and make a post-season run.

[shoxtop]

Extremely hopeful for this team to make a run...sadly, at this point it’s more to watch the “fans” than it is to watch the team make a run. Very much a problem. Very much has been all season. Just too bad some posters can ruin an entire forum. Win or lose, it used to be fun to follow. Now you can’t post unless you follow the right thought process. Oh well. Maybe we’ll like the next coach and it can be fun again

[Aargh]

So is SWOMO more deserving to go to the tournament than WSU? SWOMO has a 15-2 conference record?

RPI - WSU 28, SWOMO 44
Tier 1 Record - WSU 7-11, SWOMO 1-7
Tier 2 Record - WSU 6-4, SWOMO 11-3
Tier 3 Record - WSU 8-2, SWOMO 7-1
Tier 4 Record - WSU 11-0, SWOMO 13-3

If WSU was playing in the MVC - I think they roll through the league.

There will be some teams that will be selected to go to the tournament with sub 0.500 records. The NCAA selection criteria are to look at the full body of work. If WSU is one of them, good for them, the move to the AAC paid off. That is the benefits of playing in a major conference.

The key thing is you have to find a way to get to the NCAA tournament because you never know when a team will put it all together and make a post-season run.

I think I've seen this post before. Except the team names were different and the sport was basketball.

It's the exact post we've laughed about in the basketball forums for years when some P5 fan was explaining why a team that went 7-11 in a P5 league belonged in the tourney instead of a mid-major that won their league. And, of course, that 7-11 P5 team would have rolled through the MVC had they been in that league.

[shoxtop]

Doesn’t that p5 team (Syracuse) more often than not make it in though?

[proshox]

I for one will not condemn the tier break down... Just like basketball... In the MVC, WSU had a chance to build confidence and a gaudy record. This "beat-up" of non-NCAA tournament quality teams philosophy worked really well for 30 years in baseball and the last 6 years in basketball.

WSU is now on the other end of the equation. In the American WSU will lose when they don't bring a B+ or better effort.

Finish strong and WSU ranks ahead of SWOMO as far as I am concerned.

PS - Never been impressed with Butler... can we get in to the tournament and get rid Butler at the same time?

[Veritas]

I'm in this camp, well the second sentence not withstanding.

Lots of posters here would clamor in basketball for teams with below .500 conference records not being allowed at-large consideration. Even in baseball too. And now that we have moved into that scenario, that mindset has changed. Just strange.

We have a couple really good players and some fairly good but inconsistent other ones. But after seeing how this team pitches, how they field, how they execute, how they perform on weekends, etc., are there many people here that believe WSU is one of the 32 best teams in the country not winning a conference tournament? Do they look the part? And more importantly, have they played the part?

Thank you for correcting me. You are indeed spot on.

[SB Shock]

I think I've seen this post before. Except the team names were different and the sport was basketball.

It's the exact post we've laughed about in the basketball forums for years when some P5 fan was explaining why a team that went 7-11 in a P5 league belonged in the tourney instead of a mid-major that won their league. And, of course, that 7-11 P5 team would have rolled through the MVC had they been in that league.

That is why we wanted to be in better league. To get more opportunities, and not to have to be perfect. If WSU affiliation in the AAC helps get them a bid in basketball or baseball because of the strength of the conference. That is called return on the investment.

[proshox]

It can work for you or against you... unless you are JH4P and don't understand how being "stressed" on a nightly basis can negatively impact a team's overall average performance level.

[Play Angry]

Does our nitty gritty really look good with a sub.500 conference record and 1 good weekend series win the entire season?

And with all of these scenarios people are bringing up, do you really think this team is going to do all of that? How confident are you in them completing that scenario?

Yes, I do think the Nitty Gritty looks to be in good shape under the scenario laid out above. Please line up the resumes for other bubble teams and let's discuss, since you are digging in your heels to the contrary. As you know, there is no category for weekend wins - Top 50 Ws on a Tuesday count the same as they do on a Sunday, just like in basketball.

How likely is that scenario to play out? Per Boyd's World, a little less than 50%.

Let's leave it to fans of other teams to celebrate our failures with such zeal and toss dirt on our chances. Illinois State fans probably appreciate the season-long assist in that regard, but nobody should want their thanks.

[Play Angry]

In case there is somehow any doubt among our posters regarding how much weight the committee gives to sub .500 conference records in contrast to overall resume (see SEC every season for multiple examples), OU received an at-large bid with a 9-17-1 record in conference play under Golloway. That is an extreme example, but illustrates the obvious point that the determination is based on the body of work and not subsets.

We still have plenty of work to do to get comfortable, and the viable scenarios become much more remote if we lose today.

[shockfan89_]

I also think we are battling our AAC competition for at-large consideration. I could be wrong, but I doubt 6 teams from the AAC will make the tournament. Houston, East Carolina, USF, and UConn appear to be locks. UConn is the only question mark as they have one more game today with Houston and then finish the season at home versus East Carolina. They need to win at least one of their remaining 4 games to finish above .500 but they will likely have a top 20 RPI.

That leaves UCF and WSU battling for the 5th spot. UCF has a stronger resume` winning 3 of 6 against the top 10 including a sweep of #1 Florida. If they win today against OU they will win that series they will have a pretty solid resume` with a final conference series against Tulane. UCF also beat us 2 of 3 here in Wichita and will likely finish above.500 in the conference. They have an RPI of 29 and are 12-13 against the top 50 and 8-2 versus 51-100.

WSU will finish under .500 in the conference, is 7-11 against the top 50, 6-4 against 51-100 (as long as KU can stay in the top 100).

I think today is HUGE. We win this series and we will have one good series win to point to. If we lose today and Tulane wins, the best we can do is tie for 8th. I think that would definitely give UCF an at-large edge over WSU. I don't know how much that matters, but I don't want to be on the bubble, being considered as the 6th team in from the AAC with an 8th place finish in the conference.

[Play Angry]

Today is definitely huge, no doubt about it.

[Cdizzle]

Jenista with a 2-out 2-run double to retake the lead in the first, 2-1.

10:30 baseball is weird.

[ShockTalk]

"10:30 baseball is weird".


YES IT IS. What was the excuse for that again?

[Cdizzle]

Now 3-1 Shox with 2 on in the first. New pitcher for USF as their starter fails to finish the 1st.