Texas and Oklahoma SEC aspirations?

[The Mad Hatter]

I read this as media markets are driving the bus, and football is the most likely avenue to being able to deliver that.

Yes, and not only is football the most likely avenue for conference media rights, if a conference adds you they are now splitting that media money more ways so your program needs to be impactful enough to expand the conference media deal by enough to make it a net gain for the other teams. This is why a school like Rutgers can get an invite (huge media market) when it will be hard for a team like KSU. KU's hope is that what the basketball program brings is enough to offset further dividing the media rights, but it will be hard for basketball to do so because the basketball media rights are just not as valuable as the football ones.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

If the B1G is not interested in KU and/or ISU, that doesn't bode well for us. Like it or not, the Big 12 imploding depends on 3-4 more members getting spots in other conferences. If the Big 12 stays mostly intact, they will raid the AAC, not the other way around. I'm now starting to get a bad feeling about all this.

[SubGod22]

If the B1G is not interested in KU and/or ISU, that doesn't bode well for us. Like it or not, the Big 12 imploding depends on 3-4 more members getting spots in other conferences. If the Big 12 stays mostly intact, they will raid the AAC, not the other way around. I'm now starting to get a bad feeling about all this.

That would still come down to media money. I've seen reports that show the XII per team share will be similar to the AAC once UT and OU are gone. At that point, it really comes down to ESPN and Fox and who is willing to spend more to keep and grow their conference. That's what's going to be interesting here. From a football perspective, the new XII is no stronger than the AAC and the American may have the better markets as a whole. Now, how much of those markets it carries may be disputed in certain areas.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

That would still come down to media money. I've seen reports that show the XII per team share will be similar to the AAC once UT and OU are gone. At that point, it really comes down to ESPN and Fox and who is willing to spend more to keep and grow their conference. That's what's going to be interesting here. From a football perspective, the new XII is no stronger than the AAC and the American may have the better markets as a whole. Now, how much of those markets it carries may be disputed in certain areas.

Yes, agreed--AAC and B12 are now basically equal. However, B12 will have gobs of exit fees and possibly GOR penalties to distribute. That gives them the upper hand in the short term. The B12 can court the top half of the AAC, offer gobs of immediate cash, and tout a "marriage of equals."

The AAC's problem is Tulsa and Tulane (and arguably Temple and ECU) whose empty stadiums don't get them in the same conversation as even the leftovers of the Big 12. The Big 12 leftovers wouldn't want them as part of a merger. Quite possibly, the top of the AAC might see this as an opportunity to ditch them too.

Aresco's challenge, then, is to keep the AAC together and negotiate a merger of all schools. Otherwise the Big 12 just takes the AAC's top half and basically kills the AAC.

I'm getting bad flashbacks of Risk games played in my youth.

[C0|dB|00ded]

If the B1G is not interested in KU and/or ISU, that doesn't bode well for us. Like it or not, the Big 12 imploding depends on 3-4 more members getting spots in other conferences. If the Big 12 stays mostly intact, they will raid the AAC, not the other way around. I'm now starting to get a bad feeling about all this.

This is correct. The B12 will have the name, tons of cash, and the best of what's left beating down their door.

The Dregs paid almost $110M to take the Big East name. Branding matters.

[C0|dB|00ded]

That would still come down to media money. I've seen reports that show the XII per team share will be similar to the AAC once UT and OU are gone. At that point, it really comes down to ESPN and Fox and who is willing to spend more to keep and grow their conference. That's what's going to be interesting here. From a football perspective, the new XII is no stronger than the AAC and the American may have the better markets as a whole. Now, how much of those markets it carries may be disputed in certain areas.

Mostly fiction.

[WstateU]

Yikes!

[pogo]

This is the way I see he next events playing out. The smaller big 12 needs to add teams to their conference to keep them viable. The AAC has teams that may not add value to a revised TV contract with Fox but it still would pay more than the current AAC espn deal. If Aresco can keep teams from the AAC moving to the smaller 12 then it becomes more of a stalemate which in the long run is better for the AAC in that the AAC doesn't have to do anything short term. Money to join the smaller 12 would be better initially but how long can you trust the original smaller 12 schools to stay in a conference that others have fled and will continue to look for greener pastures. If the other AAC members stay the course then I believe the AAC can come out of this stronger but if several other institutions leave the AAC it will look like the MVC but more far flung. Hope Arresco is doing all he can to keep the current membership intact and is in talks with expn about what the scenarios are for financial opportunities if certain things play out.

[WuTheOne]

The danger for AAC teams to join the B12-4 is that OSU and Texas Tech for certain would be looking at annual TV revenues in the $10 mill range instead of the $37 they're getting now. They'd see schools in other conferences getting FAR more and would be doing anything possible to get out of even a revamped B12.

That conference's stability is in the rear view mirror.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

What TTU, OSU, and anyone not named Kansas wants is irrelevant at this point. Even Jayhawks are outside looking in at B1G. Not enough value. ACC maybe. PAC Maybe.

Money is the bottom line. Any conference adding teams will only do so to make more. No one is adding teams to get to 16. They are adding teams to add money.

Besides Kansas, no one comes close to adding a full share of value to any conference. And they aren’t really that close, but NCAA Credits help close gap.

There is no more P5. It is just a P4. AAC and BXII are in same boat.

[MoValley John]

Yikes!

Texas was a hot mess when they joined the big 8 and formed the big 12. The SWC had imploded and Texas football sucked. aTm was a much more solid program at the time. Texas did rebuild, thanks to the Big 12, but Texas fans forget that they were sinking when the Big 12 was formed.

[Shocker1976]

What TTU, OSU, and anyone not named Kansas wants is irrelevant at this point. Even Jayhawks are outside looking in at B1G. Not enough value. ACC maybe. PAC Maybe.

Money is the bottom line. Any conference adding teams will only do so to make more. No one is adding teams to get to 16. They are adding teams to add money.

Besides Kansas, no one comes close to adding a full share of value to any conference. And they aren’t really that close, but NCAA Credits help close gap.

There is no more P5. It is just a P4. AAC and BXII are in same boat.

Recent announcement by the B1G, ACC and PAC athletic directors supports your contention; two tiers in football - SEC and everyone else.

[pogo]

Interesting that Dave Wannstedt from Fox has said that KSU and OSU are going to the Pac 12 with ISU and ku going to the BIG and WVU to the ACC. That leaves the three Texas schools left behind If those three joined the AAC Football and Basketball would be improved. Of Course none of that could happen and the big 12-4 could look to poach the stronger teams of the AAC. Should be an interestin next couple of days and weeks.

[SubGod22]

In what world would the PAC want KSU? Do they have anything at all in common with current PAC members? I don't know enough about OSU, but would think they're probably in the same boat, but do have better athletics and academics I believe.

Almost everyone seems to be in agreement that the ACC absolutely does not want WVU, and we all know that they're waiting for the day that Notre Dame decides to go all in on a conference.

You can at least make some arguments for KU and ISU in the B1G due to their AAU status. But you'd think if they were interested, those two would bolt immediately. Though I'm not sure having two Iowa schools makes a ton of sense and we all know for KU it comes down to is their football too much of an anchor for their basketball to get them in. It's looking that way currently.

Then there's still the concern that the KBOR will handicap KU even more by tying KSU to them. If that's the case, the B1G isn't an option. I could see KU fitting in with the PAC on an institutional level, but I'm not sure if they'd be willing to take KSU as well. The MWC would gladly take both.

[Shockm]

Interesting that Dave Wannstedt from Fox has said that KSU and OSU are going to the Pac 12 with ISU and ku going to the BIG and WVU to the ACC. That leaves the three Texas schools left behind If those three joined the AAC Football and Basketball would be improved. Of Course none of that could happen and the big 12-4 could look to poach the stronger teams of the AAC. Should be an interestin next couple of days and weeks.

Does Wannstedt list sources (or at least say he has sources) for this statement, or is this just his speculation or guess based on his opinion of what could happen?