American Athletic Conference

[CBB_Fan]

The problem I see is that at the beginning the only ncaa basketball money that you have is whatever the Catholic 7 can bring with them from the Big East. Which from some of the articles I read, even that could be contested in court. The other new members in all likely hood would have to forfeit all of the ncaa money they had earned to their old conferences.

That is why I could see them proceeding very slowly only adding one member to balance the conference at 8. I really can't see them starting out with more than 10.

So while Butler, VCU, Dayton, St. Louis, Creighton, Xavier might add value down the road, they start off bringing no money with them to the table. So the Catholic 7 during the first few years would be spliting their Big East ncaa basketball money (assuming they get to take the Big East ncaa money with them which does seem likely but possibly messy) with 3 or more additional schools. I am not sure programs like Seton Hall and Providence can afford to do that. It would take 6 years for the new schools to completely earn their keep (ncaa basketball tourney money is paid out over 6 years) Now I suppose a brand new TV contract that would pay more than the old Big East one might make that more doable.

I am just having a hard time figuring out how the Catholic 7 come out ahead financially the first few years. And maybe they don't, but they feel it is better in the long run. Which is probably true. So maybe they are willing to take some short term losses in exchange for some long term gains.

At first, I honestly believed they might just go for a huge conference with a lot of really good teams. After investigating it further, I believe that you are totally right. Start small, see if you need more teams later. The good thing is that this conference should be stable enough to last a few years with some short-term problems. They are negotiating to see if they can get out of either exit fees or keep their NCAA money.

This is why I think the first option is to get Notre Dame and stick with 8 members. That would be the best thing for them financially. Doubt it will happen though; Notre Dame's money maker is football and they want bowl tie-ins. They may also just get Xavier and/or Butler if they can't get Notre Dame. Looks like the talks of the football members rejoining has ended and neither side wants much to do with the other.

The really important detail we can't know yet is what type of media deal they will get. Completely changes the situation depending on what they negotiate.

[tropicalshox]

Andy Katz reports multiple sources telling him the new league will start with 10 schools.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/70110/big-questions-on-exits-from-big-east

[shox1989]

Andy Katz reports multiple sources telling him the new league will start with 10 schools.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...-from-big-east

The Andy Katz article also says that the 7 won't likely get to keep ANY of their ncaa tournament money. That at least puts them on equal footing with any new members that they add (a bad equal footing but equal- they won't be sharing THEIR EARNED money with everyone else, there will be nothing to share). The article also says that they would like to get to 10, it doesn't say that they will necessarily start out with 10.

But if they don't bring any money with them from the Big East then adding members makes more sense. If they can't secure a good TV deal then they are really going to be screwed. This really makes adding teams with a good TV market and some national appeal a whole lot more important.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Most interesting quote from that article from my point of view as it impacts Wichita State:

Scheduling would also be easier if the new league added schools that play on campus. The seven departing schools play at or use pro arenas, making scheduling a nightmare unless there are some campus facilities for flexibility.

[ShockTalk]

One thing that I'm a little surprised about all this Big Priest thing is how little leverage the Atl-10 seems to have. I mean 5 of the schools that are being batted around as possible teams to go to the "BP" are in the Atl-10 and frankly, I think those 5 are as good or better than the top 5 in the BP. Charlotte is leaving to C-USA due to football, Temple for the same reason to the Big East (what's left of it), and UMass seems to want to do what Charlotte has. At this point, I might see if Temple still wants to go, let UMass leave, and add two quality replacements.

The big problem tha Atl-10 has is too many teams, some of which hold the conference back both quality and money wise. The Atl-10 could make a coup and shut the BP out.

East: VCU, Temple, Richmond, GW, Duquesne, St Joe's, La Salle

West: Butler, Dayton, St. Louis, Xavier, Creighton, Wichita State, Bradley

Just playin' around.

[CBB_Fan]

Most interesting quote from that article from my point of view as it impacts Wichita State:

Just to be clear, Creighton is the only expansion candidate that exclusively plays off campus, as far as I can tell. Some plays at larger off-campus sites as well.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Just to be clear, Creighton is the only expansion candidate that exclusively plays off campus, as far as I can tell. Some plays at larger off-campus sites as well.

Just to be clear, that was the entire point. 7 schools all play off-site. Scheduling will be tough to get those all in tune with each other. If 8 of your 12 teams, or 8 of your 10 teams do it, it is still very tough.

If, however, 8 of your 14 teams play off campus, then it is much easier to schedule, especially when considering TV deals?

[CBB_Fan]

Just to be clear, that was the entire point. 7 schools all play off-site. Scheduling will be tough to get those all in tune with each other. If 8 of your 12 teams, or 8 of your 10 teams do it, it is still very tough.

If, however, 8 of your 14 teams play off campus, then it is much easier to schedule, especially when considering TV deals?

I just trying to add to that point. I'm not sure every person knows where Saint Louis or Xavier play, so I was trying to put that information out.

[shox1989]

If you really look at the Catholic 7 they are not exactly the kind of teams that are going to make a TV network drool over signing a TV contract with them. Unless the Catholic network (EWTN) starts doing sports I just don't see a network that will be will too excited to pay huge bucks for this group.:02.47-tranquillity: I am not sure they will be able to negotiate a TV contract that is significantly better than the A-10 currently has.

It is a little hard for me to see what real incentive any A-10 team would have to join the Catholic 7. The A-10 already gets 3-5 bids a year. If you are Xavier why would you forfeit your ncaa tourney money and pay an exit fee to the A-10 to join a conference that may not be able to negotiate a TV contract that is significantly better and wouldn't have significantly more ncaa bids each year.

Creighton may be the Catholic 7's best new candidate since the MVC doesn't have much of a current TV deal (money-wise) and has a very small if any exit fee. The risk for Creighton making the jump is much less than it would be for any A-10 team.

[ShockTalk]

If you really look at the Catholic 7 they are not exactly the kind of teams that are going to make a TV network drool over signing a TV contract with them. Unless the Catholic network (EWTN) starts doing sports I just don't see a network that will be will too excited to pay huge bucks for this group.:02.47-tranquillity: I am not sure they will be able to negotiate a TV contract that is significantly better than the A-10 currently has.

It is a little hard for me to see what real incentive any A-10 team would have to join the Catholic 7. The A-10 already gets 3-5 bids a year. If you are Xavier why would you forfeit your ncaa tourney money and pay an exit fee to the A-10 to join a conference that may not be able to negotiate a TV contract that is significantly better and wouldn't have significantly more ncaa bids each year.

Creighton may be the Catholic 7's best new candidate since the MVC doesn't have much of a current TV deal (money-wise) and has a very small if any exit fee. The risk for Creighton making the jump is much less than it would be for any A-10 team.

I agree @shox1989:. I brought some of the same thoughts a few posts back and glad to see I'm not the only one a little perplexed.

The only thing I can think is a downfall to the Atl-10 is that is has too many teams and having to split the $$ so many ways with unproductive members. If the top teams can't rid themselves of the bottom teams (to add a few quality $$ teams) their only option may be to leave.

[SubGod22]

No matter how big you are in the market, they still matter, and that's what the C7 have going for them. Plus Georgetown, Marquette, St. John's and Villanova still cary name recognition and are players in their respective markets. Plus this new conference won't have the drag at the bottom quite like the A10. There's no doubt in my mind that they'll have a better TV deal, especially if they add Xavier. Land Dayton and SLU or CU and they have a very strong conference with a better TV deal. If nothing else, these schools have the benefit of having been in the BE and that in itself will help TV dollars.

[GO_SHOCKERS]

On the Tim Brando radio show (CBS Sports) he was talking about CU going to the C7. During the same conversation he mentioned WSU as a good fit for the BB only conference as well. Nice to get some pub at least.

[SubGod22]

I still wonder what kind of media deal this new conference would get if it went to 16 and essentially destroyed the A10 and MVC at the same time.

Wichita State
Creighton
Bradley
Xavier
Saint Louis
Dayton
Butler
VCU
Saint Joseph's

Markets and a lot of basketball strength.

Not gonna happen though

[CBB_Fan]

I don't want to start another thread about this, so I'm going to post this here.

The MWC probably doesn't consider us an option. We are considerably below Gonzaga and BYU for them, and they don't even have any incentive for them to add us. They'd all see a drop in pay unless we make it far into the tournament (Sweet 16 at least) almost every year. Even adding Hawaii for all sports would be a better option. This seems like an unlikely solution. 10% chance.

The A-10 probably doesn't want us. If the Big East raids them, it will be for teams near us. Best case scenario is that the Big East takes Butler, Xavier, and VCU, which give the A-10 some incentive to add us, but it is unlikely. 9% chance.

We may see a fit with the Big East, but we are basically off the radar. If they want someone that isn't a Catholic school, they'll take Butler. If they want a public school, they'll get VCU. If they want a more western team, they get Creighton. Still a chance if they expand to 14-16 teams in the future, but unlikely. 1% chance.

Simply put, we don't have a lot of options. Our most likely bet is that we will end up in a crappy conference. We just need to make the best out of a bad situation, and hope that we will be good enough to continually win in whatever crappy conference we get into, until we have won enough to be considered a candidate for an upgrade. Right now, I'd say that we have an 80% chance of either staying in the MVC or going to a similar conference (equivalent to maybe the Horizon league of today.

[rrshock]

There are no good options except for the new league or the MWC. Plain and simple. Even the current MVC really isn't a good option either anymore.