Republican Slow Slog - Poll Updates

[Kung Wu]

You mean they're not all blue collar?

An article I read said he won nearly every single demographic except postgraduates, which he essentially split with Rubio.

[Play Angry]

Still overperforming the strongest with low income, low education mouth breathers.

South Carolina is basically a white trash out house so I wouldn't place much weight on any supposed momentum among smart people. No Jeb will hurt Trump going forward, and if Kasich drops out quickly then it will sting him badly. He needs a large field and it is finally starting to narrow.

[Kung Wu]

Still overperforming the strongest with low income, low education mouth breathers.

South Carolina is basically a white trash out house so I wouldn't place much weight on any supposed momentum among smart people. No Jeb will hurt Trump going forward, and if Kasich drops out quickly then it will sting him badly. He needs a large field and it is finally starting to narrow.

Overperforming?

Smart people in South Carolina are dumber than smart people everywhere else? They are white trash?

I don't understand your commentary.

Most importantly will Jeb's people go to Rubio or Cruz or Trump, or split with some combination of those?

[Play Angry]

Why do smart people in SC count more than smart people in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other states polled with upcoming primaries? That is your assertion when you claim the narrative is over that his support is built on simpletons. This state is poorer, dumber, and has a medieval economy, so yes I believe it counts for very little in terms of a trend reversal. And even here, he polled the best among morons who make nothing.

Jeb's money will go to any red participant before Trump. Cruz would probably be next to last. Not that it is determinative, as we've seen.

Maybe too personal so feel free to ignore -why does a Carson-turned-Rubio supporter make so many posts on here defending and advocating for Donald Trump? The values overlap is so much smaller than with any remaining candidate.

[shockmonster]

Overperforming?

Smart people in South Carolina are dumber than smart people everywhere else? They are white trash?

I don't understand your commentary.

Most importantly will Jeb's people go to Rubio or Cruz or Trump, or split with some combination of those?

He often has said things that either lies, he can't deliver, or other outlandish statements that the next week, he backtracks, says that he didn't say those things, or that he heard those things but he doesn't know if they are true, or tweets that he saw and re-tweeted but he doesn't know if they are true or not. Examples that I remember include Obama's citizenship, Cruz's eligibility for President, Rubio's eligibility for President, GW Bush lying about the Weapons of Mass Destruction, his viewpoint of the Iraq War before the war that cannot be confirmed, Muslims on the streets of America that cheered when the Twin Towers went down, etc.

I'm a Conservative who is upset with Washington and I don't trust Trump and question his motives

[tropicalshox]

Most Republican primaries are winner take all or winner take most of the delegates. As long as it continues to be a choice between three or more canidates, Trump is going to pile up the delegates

[shockmonster]

Most Republican primaries are winner take all or winner take most of the delegates. As long as it continues to be a choice between three or more canidates, Trump is going to pile up the delegates

All I know is that saw Georgia, Arkansas, Slabama, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Texas, and Nevada were all listed as proportional. You can define what that word means for each state.

[Kung Wu]

Why do smart people in SC count more than smart people in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other states polled with upcoming primaries?

In my book they don't, they count equal.

That is your assertion when you claim the narrative is over that his support is built on simpletons.

Not really ...

This state is poorer, dumber, and has a medieval economy, so yes I believe it counts for very little in terms of a trend reversal. And even here, he polled the best among morons who make nothing.

Rubio won the college educated vote in Iowa.
Rubio won the post-graduate vote in Iowa.
Trump won with college educated voters in New Hampshire.
Trump won the post-graduate vote in New Hampshire.
Trump won the college educated vote in South Carolina.
Rubio and Trump split post-graduate vote in South Carolina.

So far that's a whole lot of Rubio and Trump in the educated voter section, across three races. And of the three states Trump is winning 3.5 to 2.5.

Maybe too personal so feel free to ignore -why does a Carson-turned-Rubio supporter make so many posts on here defending and advocating for Donald Trump? The values overlap is so much smaller than with any remaining candidate.

I was early to say that I can live with Rubio, Trump or Cruz as the nominee. I will support any of those three, though I am concerned about Cruz being able to win the whole enchilada, so I am starting to hope it's either Rubio or Trump. With those three in the lead, I am now to the point where ultimately beating Hillary or Bernie is more important to me than which of those three does it.

I have concerns about Trump's inner-liberal taking over on specific topics, that's for sure.

But Trump is entertaining and winning, so until someone takes over his pole position, that's where the discussion will be.

[Play Angry]

Trump's NH numbers from the source within the link you quoted:

High School or Less - 47%
Some college - 39%
College grad - 33%
Post Grad - 25%

Overall - 35.3%

Crystal clear overperformance among mongoloids.



South Carolina:

High School or Less - 45%
Some College - 40%
College Grad - 29%
Post Grad - 20%

Overall - 33%

Again, tremendous overperformance among the poorest and dumbest.



Trump's greatest source of strength most certainly lies in the lowest socioeconomic rungs of the party. That narrative remains very much intact, contrary to your assertion. Are there smart, rich people supporting him? Of course there are, it's just a much, much, much lower percentage in comparison to the poor, dumb bastards who flock to his rallies in droves. His support is massively overrepresented among the citizens who failed, in utterly spectacular fashion, to adapt to the economy's transition from a base of manufacturing to services. He preys on the least educated, least wealthy, and most angry.

If you are already trying to be a pragmatist in spite of the availability of more ideologically consistent options and want to try to pitch general election electability, that is fine I suppose. But let's not pretend his pitch hasn't found the most success in appeals to base emotions among the electorate's most vulnerable demographics.

[Kung Wu]

Crystal clear overperformance among mongoloids.
...
Again, tremendous overperformance among the poorest and dumbest.

You keep using the term "overperformance". I have no idea what that means, or how one can overperform when it comes to an election?

How do these numbers compare with Rubio and Cruz's?

Trump's greatest source of strength most certainly lies in the lowest socioeconomic rungs of the party. That narrative remains very much intact, contrary to your assertion.

No, my assertion is that he is not ONLY winning among that demographic. The GOP keeps claiming that's the only economic demographic he is winning, and it's simply not true.

mongoloids ... Are there smart, rich people supporting him? Of course there are, it's just a much, much, much lower percentage in comparison to the poor, dumb bastards who flock to his rallies in droves.

I'm surprised you have this much disdain for the working class. I have never met someone that straight out asserted that not having a college degree is equivalent to being dumb. Or that being poor is shameful. That's a little shocking, actually. I really never pegged you as being elitist.

His support is massively overrepresented among the citizens who failed, in utterly spectacular fashion, to adapt to the economy's transition from a base of manufacturing to services. He preys on the least educated, least wealthy, and most angry.

If you are already trying to be a pragmatist in spite of the availability of more ideologically consistent options and want to try to pitch general election electability, that is fine I suppose. But let's not pretend his pitch hasn't found the most success in appeals to base emotions among the electorate's most vulnerable demographics.

I didn't say it's not the bulk of his base. I AM saying that he is also WINNING the educated demographic so far, when that is supposed to be impossible. Now if either Rubio or Cruz fall out of the race, that could shift in a heartbeat. But so far, he is WINNING the educated demographic, contrary to the narrative -- there's simply no disputing that.

[Play Angry]

You keep using the term "overperformance". I have no idea what that means, or how one can overperform when it comes to an election?

Performing better than a benchmark. In this case, his overall support.

No, my assertion is that he is not ONLY winning among that demographic. The GOP keeps claiming that's the only economic demographic he is winning, and it's simply not true.

I see. I was unaware that the blanket assertion by the GOP was that Trump winning a plurality of other demographics was impossible.

I'm surprised you have this much disdain for the working class. I have never met someone that straight out asserted that not having a college degree is equivalent to being dumb. Or that being poor is shameful. That's a little shocking, actually. I really never pegged you as being elitist.

My disdain is aimed at Trump's supporters, which are heavily concentrated in the lowest substrata of education and earnings. I generally assume that anyone voting for him right now, given the alternatives, is easily manipulated and lacks critical thinking abilities. Often, I am sure, I am dead wrong. However, if a person's candidate of choice employs the tactics and makes the statements Trump has made, then yes, I am fine with a general characterization of that group as low information and unintelligent. That group also coincides at the moment with society's poor and uneducated who are being promised a return to a 1960s-70s U.S. economy by way of trade and currency wars. A gullible group, for sure.

We can switch to "success challenged" going forward.

I didn't say it's not the bulk of his base. I AM saying that he is also WINNING the educated demographic so far, when that is supposed to be impossible. Now if either Rubio or Cruz fall out of the race, that could shift in a heartbeat. But so far, he is WINNING the educated demographic, contrary to the narrative -- there's simply no disputing that.

Is the narrative that it is "impossible" for him to receive a plurality of voters with a college degree, and this has never and will never happen in any primary? Or is it that his core is concentrated among low education, low income voters? I have seen the latter stressed repeatedly and have not seen the former, although I am sure something in that vein has been published somewhere.

Here are some interesting statistics:

-In 1980, Ronald Reagan won a 44 state landslide with 56% support among white voters
-In 1988, George H.W. Bush won a 40 state landslide with 59% support among white voters
-In 2000, George W. Bush narrowly lost the popular vote but won a narrow victory in the electoral college with 54% support among white voters
-In 2012, Mitt Romney lost handily despite winning 59% support among white voters


The non-white vote was just over 10% in 1980. In 2012, it was almost 30%. Non-hispanic whites are projected to make up just ~40% of the population in forty years.

What sane long-term strategy involves nominating the most xenophobic, ethnic-baiting, racially polarizing figure to represent your party in a general election? Does the chance to thread the needle with magnified support from a shrinking demographic today outweigh the significant damage to support from future generations of growing demographics? All for somebody who embodies, at best, maybe 50% alignment with conservative ideology?

Republicans are committing an embarrassing slow motion suicide by even considering this buffoon.

[wufan]

@PlayAngry: said:
"Republicans are committing an embarrassing slow motion suicide by even considering this buffoon."

While I generally agree with this statement, I don't believe other Republicans should slam him in this way; rather I think Republican's should put forth reasons why Rubio or Cruz should be elected instead.

[SB Shock]

Question is what will Trump offer Cruz to get him to drop out?

[Kung Wu]

So the word on Drudge is that Rubio will not attend CPAC. WTH is he thinking?!?!

[RoyalShock]

Trump again tries to call Cruz a liar due to an ad Cruz is running in Nevada. Yet again, it's Trump who doing the lying. This guy is a sociopath of the highest order who thinks everyone, including his own supporters, are idiots.

http://therightscoop.com/exposed-ted-cruzs-ad-about-trump-is-absolutely-true-and-trump-is-the-one-lying-about-it/