Republican Slow Slog - Poll Updates

[SB Shock]

Well enough polling has come out after the last update to see new trends.

Trump - Steady, but can't really breakout.
Carson - is trending down
Cruz - steady support but uninspiring
Bush - slight rebound
Fiorina - Making a strong move
Rubio - On the uptick, but lags Fiorina
Paul/Christie - No path
Walker - done, but some of the 1% haven't got the message

[SB Shock]

[SB Shock]

[Aargh]

I didn't think it would take long for Trump to step on his dick. The nomination was his until he kept yapping his jaw. Now it looks like Carson is the next in line. Carson could beat Hillary.

In the Congressional races, it appears that the Tea Party is losing support among voters. Maybe the Kansas example is being seen as the disaster that Tea Party politics inflicts on a government and the government's finances.

Cutting taxes for everyone and reducing taxes to zero for the wealthiest class of citizens has not produced anything resembling an economic upswing. The positive economic news has been from Spirit and Textron, which were not affected by the Brownback tax policies.

If the Libertarian and Tea Party supporters were looking to Kansas as an example of how their economic policies work, I have only two words.

Epic. Fail.

[CBB_Fan]

It seems to me the Republican party is heavily split between the establishment and outsider candidates, and the fraction going to each side of the split is relatively static. I think the establishment candidates need to condense really quickly and stop splitting the vote if they want to build momentum against the 3-headed monster than is Trump/Carson/Fiorina. It has been about 50% outsider / 40% establishment, so it looks like right now the momentum is going to swing to whichever one of the outsiders does the best (right now either Carson or Trump could take the cake, but Trump seems more likely). If Cruz or Rubio can get the full establishment vote though (with a little secret sauce at the polls) they could beat a split vote, and that is probably the only hope the establishment has.

[SB Shock]

It is still trumps, in fact in couple states Trump is starting to push into low 40s. The chart is somewhat misleading because there has been a lot of polling in Iowa - which is the one state where Carson is doing very well and it weights the trends like he surging (which he is in Iowa, but no where else). Otherwise trump is winning everywhere else right now.

[SB Shock]

Fiorina, Bush decline is clearly evident. Likewise the climb of Carson is seen. Trump is steady, while Rubio and Cruz make in-roads.

[Kung Wu]

Thinking Rubio and Cruz are cannibalizing each other? If either dropped out, the other might double, and it would be a seriously fun 3 way race?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I imagine we will see a good number of candidates drop out fairly quickly in early 2016. I'm most interested to see where those voters move their support.

I really don't think Trump will gain many new voters, so I think the consolidation of other candidate's voters into just a couple blocks will pull a couple of the 3rd-6th placers (Rubio, Cruz, etc.) up even with Trump and Carson. Actually, Carson could possibly use that as a push even higher into sole #1.

[SB Shock]

Thinking Rubio and Cruz are cannibalizing each other? If either dropped out, the other might double, and it would be a seriously fun 3 way race?

There is a PPP poll out for Nov 16-17 that shows the following:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_111915.pdf

Cruz does better with African American than Rubio
Rubio leads Hillary, Cruz trails Hillary slightly (lot of undecided)
Rubio and Cruz do equally with independents (49%) - though Rubio beats Cruz by 5% in favorability with independents
Rubio does slightly better with women
Conservatives like Cruz
Moderates like Rubio
Liberals like neither

Cruz beats Trump, Rubio loses to Trump
Rubio beats Cruz

Cruz beats Trump due to Very Conservative voters
Rubio beats Cruz because of Liberal/Moderate voters

People who picked Cruz were more concerned about having a true conservative
People who picked Rubio were more concerned about improving chances of beating democrats

Those who voted for Rubio, would split their vote 70%/20% for Cruz/Trump primary
Those who voted for Cruz, would split their vote 59%/31% for Rubio/Trump

To answer your question - Rubio is stealing more votes away from Cruz, Cruz is stealing away from Rubio.

[SB Shock]

Trump holds his position.
Carson is in decline
Rubio and Cruz continue to strengthen
Bush may not be dead, but on life support

[Play Angry]

First national R primary poll since 11/22 came out this morning, showing a continuation of recent trends:

Trump 27, Rubio 17, Carson 16, Cruz 16, Everyone Else at 5 or less



Looks like a 4 horse race at this point. Trump will want to see the other three stay in the race as long as possible.

[wu_shizzle]

First national R primary poll since 11/22 came out this morning, showing a continuation of recent trends:

Trump 27, Rubio 17, Carson 16, Cruz 16, Everyone Else at 5 or less



Looks like a 4 horse race at this point. Trump will want to see the other three stay in the race as long as possible.

I agree it's down to 4 and I don't doubt that Trump leads with the demographic that's responding to these polls.

Here's a little of the breakdown of how Quinnipiac polled to get these results:

From November 23 – 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,453 registered voters
nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines
and cell phones.

The survey includes 672 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8
percentage points and 573 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia,
Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research

So 672 registered Republicans (not necessarily likely voters) who answer the phone to talk to a possible telemarketer, like Trump over the field. Again, I wouldn't argue that, I would just argue that 672 people may not make up the voting public and probably shouldn't have as much influence over the national media narrative.

There are advanced analytics that the campaigns use, but the national media doesn't trust the campaigns to be honest. And I don't know that they really would care anyways, they're just looking for headlines.

[Play Angry]

Yeah, there is an interesting debate about the most effective methods of polling which is being put to the test this primary season. Live polling (like the Quinnipiac one above) used to dominate the scene with robocalls being 2nd, but now half of serious polling is done online with live polling fading into just over a third of the market share.

Trump apparently performs best in online polling and robo calls (some pundits attribute this to many people liking him but being embarrassed to admit it to another human), so his continued strength in live polling is a little troubling if you are in the camp that does not want him to get the nod (this is me x1000).

Will be fun to watch these next 2 months before Iowa kicks things off.

[Play Angry]

Trump continues to roll in the latest CNN Poll:

Trump 36, Cruz 16, Carson 14, Rubio 12


It looks like he is doing a decent job siphoning support from Carson. In what universe does a former Carson supporter jump ship to Trump? Aside from the "herp derp, they're both outsiderz!" mantra, you would be hard pressed to find two candidates in the same party with less in common from a philosophical standpoint.

Primaries do a great job of evidencing that neither side has a monopoly on mongoloids.