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Of course my premise above that Republican votes will exceed Democrat votes could be wrong. And independents could go hard against Trump, which also makes me wrong.
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Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille! -
Waffle much? Lol. I hope you are right though.Go Shocks!Comment
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Haha, just pointing out where my premise could fall apart. It is difficult to make a prediction like this, so I end up second guessing myself a lot.Originally posted by ShockerDropOut View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Nate Silver says this is about as 50/50 as it can possibly get:
Source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model? Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Let's say it's a sunny 77 degrees outside.
If I ask 5 random people on the street what they feel like the temperature is -- and they can't see each other's answer -- I might get:
1) 71 * outlier
2) 78
3) 81 * outlier
4) 76
5) 78
That averages out to 76.8, which is pretty darn accurate for only 5 "samples".
But if I ask those same 5 people what they feel like the temperature is outside -- and they each have the benefit of seeing the previous responses -- it might look like:
1) 71 (the first person has no benefit of seeing anybody else's answer)
2) The second person was thinking 78, but since the lady before him said 71, he thinks maybe he's just hot so he answers 75.
3) The third person was thinking 81, but the first two combined average at 73, which he thinks is a little low so he says 75.
4) The fourth person was thinking 76, but sees 71, 75, 75 and she's a little self conscious so she says 74.
5) The fifth person was thinking 78, but that feels too hot seeing 71, 75, 75, 74 and he wants to be "right" so he guesses 74.
That averages out to 73.8, which is not that close considering it's actually 77.
The people have "herded" and ended up giving way too much credence to the first response, and then once the people dialed in on an answer it tended to stay there.
And this is what happened with polling this year. Once announced, Harris got a huge bounce from the convention and honeymoon period, and all the pollsters just dialed into numbers and stayed there. There was a total lack of outliers, which makes the entire group's response get less and less meaningful.
The polls could be right on luck alone, or they could be very wrong. The way they herded was by not publishing their outlier surveys and then weighting the surveys they did publish until the results were in line with other pollster responses.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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My prediction: Trump wins the voting; Harris wins the vote counting.Comment
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HahahaOriginally posted by 1972Shocker View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Does anybody have a good site that shows results at the county level across the nation?Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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I'm looking forward to the exit polling results as they start rolling in during the afternoon. Typically, a pretty good indicator of how things will turn out.Comment
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Win or lose, I love election day!! Fun stuff!Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Public safety is on the ballot.
Is that **** drunk, or what?!?Comment
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I would love to see another MSM meltdown."When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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Kamala campaigned on enforcing border laws. You can't make this **** up.Comment
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The county in PA where my in-laws live is already having ballot scanner issues.
I'm sure all cast ballots will get properly scanned and counted. But how many will just leave without casting their vote, and not return later?“The Cambria County Board of Election learned early this morning that a software malfunction in the County’s Electronic Voting System has prevented voters from scanning their ballots,” Cambria County Solicitor Ron Repak said in a statement.
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Nathan Anderson, an IT specialist from Johnstown, Cambria’s largest city, said he ran into issues at his voting site when he cast his ballot for Trump this morning.
He said a poll worker put his ballot in a lock box until it could be scanned, but Anderson admitted he had reservations about the issue.
“I was able to turn in my ballot, whether or not it gets scanned, I’ll never know to be honest,” he said.
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