2024 Presidential Election

[ShockingButTrue]

Finally, it's time to vote the rancorous, lying ***********s out! Thank You Jesus...

[pinstripers]

Just listened to a radio interview of Casey DeSantis, the First Lady of Florida. Amazing! She might be elected President some day.

[WuDrWu]

To me, the answer to this question will be the most interesting, not just in Pennsylvania, but across the country:


Who is voting tomorrow ? More detailed, how many people that voted by mail or early in 2020 and DIDN'T vote early this time will go to the polls tomorrow?


To be clear, we aren't comparing apples to apples or even oranges here, but it's maybe apples to bananas.


2020 election results (PA): EV=Early Votes ED=Election Day Votes O=Provisional


Biden EV 1,995,720 ED 1,409,341 O 53,168 Total 3,458,229



Trump EV 595,570 ED 2,731,230 O 50.874 Total 3,377,674




2024


Harris EV 1,137,292 ED ? O ? Total ?



Trump EV 639,726 ED ? O ? Total ?



Again, to be clear, these aren't vote totals in 2024 just the DEM or REP returned ballots. They could be for anyone. Also, I gave 70% of the Independent votes returned to the DEMs and 30% to the GOP. Just my guess. All those votes could be for any candidate, but it seems likely that the vast majority will be for their own party.


Early voting everywhere has been universally reported as brisk or heavy. Yet Harris is down almost 860K votes from Biden 4 years ago. Trump is UP 45K. That's not very much for Trump when it's been reported many times that he's changed course and encouraging his supporters to vote early (and was most certainly NOT doing that in 2020).


What are these numbers telling us?



I don't know, but I think they're telling us that enthusiasm for both candidates is not huge. PA voters could vote by mail this time exactly like in 2020. Clearly they prefer to vote in person on both sides of the aisle or more votes would have been cast early.


Trump needs a 700K vote edge tomorrow, in person to expect a win. He had a 1,300,000 edge in 2020. If half of the non-early Harris voters show up, that's roughly 450K. It's VERY DIFFICULT to imagine voter turnout tomorrow that leans Harris' way. The ONLY way you can see her winning is if you believe the GOP has abandoned Trump in a significant way as compared to DEMs abandoning Harris. Possible.....but seems very unlikely.

DEMs are going to have to see voting numbers with HUGE turnouts compared to history and to the GOP......Could in person totals be say......down 300K for the GOP to 2,400,000 and UP 400K for the DEMs to 1,800,000 tomorrow? That would still give the GOP an edge.


The math is very difficult to overcome for the DEMs at this point, in PA at least. And their early voting there is as good as it gets compared to the rest of the country.



And maybe I'm way off, but I ain't buying the cat lady abortion crowd turning IOWA and across the nation. I'm just not. Yes, there are cat lady abortion crackpots. But there ain't enough of them that WEREN'T supporting Harris in the first place to make a difference.

Now, 40 years from now when the latest 2 generations are older? Perhaps. Thankfully, I won't be around to suffer those elections.

[ShockingButTrue]

'Bout time to vote the ********ers out who told us the hunter laptop was a russian machination back in 2020! Oh wait, that was the native bureaucrats. Oh well, close enough for the common sense public.

[Ta Town Shocker]

Great analysis WuDrWu. Couple of quick counter points which may or may not sway things.

In 2020, we had forms sent through mail to make it easy to request a mail in ballot. Not so this year so I'll be voting in person. No idea if this applies to PA or not.

After watching Fox News for months leading up to the election, a couple of weeks ago someone changed the TV at work to CNN. CNN is reporting Trump is down 20 points to Harris when it comes to women voters.

Also, Liz Cheney has said it's okay for Republicans to silently vote for Harris. Similar to how Kelly won the governor's race in Kansas, it's easy to think the same here because so many dislike Trump.

[Ta Town Shocker]

All of that said, just checked the betting lines which I've been following on Robinhood and they have decisively swung to Trump's favor after tightening up over the weekend. Certainly looks good for Trump at the moment.

[shoxlax]

Great analysis WuDrWu. Couple of quick counter points which may or may not sway things.

In 2020, we had forms sent through mail to make it easy to request a mail in ballot. Not so this year so I'll be voting in person. No idea if this applies to PA or not.

After watching Fox News for months leading up to the election, a couple of weeks ago someone changed the TV at work to CNN. CNN is reporting Trump is down 20 points to Harris when it comes to women voters.

Also, Liz Cheney has said it's okay for Republicans to silently vote for Harris. Similar to how Kelly won the governor's race in Kansas, it's easy to think the same here because so many dislike Trump.

Except almost everyone hates Liz Chaney, at least enough to ignore her.

[Ta Town Shocker]

Except almost everyone hates Liz Chaney, at least enough to ignore her.

Can't say I've ever seen anything negative about her but she's not really someone I've done much research on.

[WuDrWu]

Great analysis WuDrWu. Couple of quick counter points which may or may not sway things.

In 2020, we had forms sent through mail to make it easy to request a mail in ballot. Not so this year so I'll be voting in person. No idea if this applies to PA or not.

After watching Fox News for months leading up to the election, a couple of weeks ago someone changed the TV at work to CNN. CNN is reporting Trump is down 20 points to Harris when it comes to women voters.

Also, Liz Cheney has said it's okay for Republicans to silently vote for Harris. Similar to how Kelly won the governor's race in Kansas, it's easy to think the same here because so many dislike Trump.

All fair points, except Trump also sizably leads with male voters (not 20% but sizable and yes women vote more than men and I don't buy CNN's number anymore than I believe the one off Iowa poll over the weekend they were RUNNING with) AND when you talk about silently voting for someone, this isn't me at all (I would ENTHUSIASTICALLY have voted for Nikki Haley or any number of qualified female conservative Presidential candidates and hope to in the future) but there are men on BOTH SIDES OF THE POLITICAL aisle that are in no way, shape or form about to vote for ANY woman for President. You can claim all you want about how it's a different time and era, but quietly, there are tons of men that are going into the ballot box and voting for Trump because "no damned woman is going to tell me what to do".

Like it or not.

[Ta Town Shocker]

Certainly spot on. I'll add since I have many family members who live in the South there are many who will never vote for a person of color either.

[ShockerPrez]

Every Harris ad I see is a celebrity telling me I can vote for a Dem because Trump is bad or abortion based. I have seen no ad talking about how great she is at anything.

In fact, I really can't remember seeing any Dem ad in any race that isn't based on abortion.

[ShockingButTrue]

Common sense will vote for the party the supports Women's sports, of course. Duh.