2024 Presidential Election

[1972Shocker]

There Was a Vile, Violent Attack in Chicago, and the Media's Been Silent.

If Trump's gathering in New York City was truly an orgy of fascist racism, akin to a Nazi convention, as we've been told on repeat, isn't it odd that so much attention has been paid to a few bad jokes from a relatively obscure comedian? One might think the media would have their hands full covering the blizzard of racist, fascist, Nazi content -- especially from the candidate himself -- that proliferated at the event, so they'd presumably have little time to devote to piddling nonsense like problematic and unfunny jokes from a pre-show warm-up act.

But wall-to-wall, frantic, days-long coverage of a few bad jokes that were disowned by the Trump campaign and delivered hours before Donald Trump event took the stage felt...more than a little bit synthetic. It was barely news. It was not big news. It's certainly not one of the biggest stories in the country. Meanwhile, there has been far, far, far, less coverage of this, from a national media that purports to be very concerned about incipient Nazism, or whatever:

https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1850977089333141933

https://x.com/karol/status/1850967392031293928

[1972Shocker]

I dropped off my Vote By Mail Ballot on Sunday evening at one of the Ballot Drop Boxes. I checked the Sedgwick County Election Office website on Monday evening and they confirmed that my ballot had been received and accepted.

I think Sedgwick County's Advanced Mail Ballot system is pretty solid assuming they do a good job of verifying signatures.

I guess you never know for sure if they are recording and counting your vote accurately.

[ShockerPrez]

"He sent an armed mob?" Brainwashed...

Yep. 2 each.

No lie according to politico.

[shoxlax]

35 min start to finish voting.

[ShockingButTrue]

"He sent an armed mob?" Brainwashed...

[AZ Shocker]

In AZ...the tv ads are ridiculously ridiculous. Harris ads are 180 degrees opposite of everything she's EVER done. Lies...lies and more lies. If she wins this state it's because the hundreds of hundreds of thousands that have moved here from silicon. Ugghhh....

[SB Shock]

Voted. The line was quite lengthy by the time I left. I waited 45 minutes. because I got there at 9:15. Doors opened at 10. I was about #15 in line at 9:15 am. I was out of there by 10:10 am.

My advice. Show up an hour early. Take a small folding chair and iced coffee or something, and you'll do fine. Other than that, you wait.

And then you end up waiting and talking to somebody who may look like this:

My polling place was pretty easy. There was a steady stream of people coming in, but the longest wait was to show my ID and sign in.

[SB Shock]

Pennsylvania (8.4 million registered) early voting (as of 10/25)

Requested: 2,100,000 [1,100,000 Dem, 650,300 Rep]
Early Voted: 1,300,000 [830,300 Dem, 457,200 Rep]

Early In-person voting for PA ends on Oct 29.

For reference purposes - 2020

Early Voting: 2,616,075 [1,995,720 Biden, 595,570 Trump]
In-Person Voting: 4,193,889 [1,409,341 Biden, 2,731,230 Trump]

Updated for today's results. PA early voting would seem to indicate lack of enthusiasm for Harris. Running well below 2020.

Meanwhile, in Kansas, 336,000 have voted early. In 2020, there were 371,854 in-person ballots (81,934 Democrats, 211,142 Republicans),

Breakdown for 2024:

Democrats 119,200 and Republicans 168,500

[WstateU]

[JVShocker]

Voted. The line was quite lengthy by the time I left. I waited 45 minutes. because I got there at 9:15. Doors opened at 10. I was about #15 in line at 9:15 am. I was out of there by 10:10 am.

My advice. Show up an hour early. Take a small folding chair and iced coffee or something, and you'll do fine. Other than that, you wait.

And then you end up waiting and talking to somebody who may look like this:

[Kung Wu]

Please explain what these percentages are measuring - they are meaningless to me otherwise

https://shockernet.net/forum/miscellaneous/politics-guns-and-beer/1366467-2024-presidential-election?p=1458525#post1458525

[WuDrWu]

I'm curious how many red/swing states have abortion proposals on the ballot this time around. That is the GOPs achillies heel. And sort of a poison pill on ballots that can even up any advantage the GOP has.

Excellent question, and one that has nuances BUT, as you alluded to, is likely a huge problem for the GOP.


States with some kind of measure on the ballot this November:

Montana (hugely important Senate seat)
Missouri
Nevada (swing state and Senate seat)
Arizona (HUGE)
Colorado (pretty much squelches any long shot hope there and jeopardizes House seats)
South Dakota
Nebraska (probably takes NE-2 out of the equation for the GOP)
NY (could drag some house seats the GOP otherwise should win)
MD (Hogan was dead, but this seals the coffin)
FL (probably doesn't put the state in play, but could affect Senate and House seats potentially)

[asiseeit]

Updated (10/29/2024)
--
PA: Harris (59% to 31%)
NC: Trump (34% to 33%)
GA: Trump (49% to 45%)
AZ: Trump (42% to 35%)
WI: Harris (36% to 23%)
MI: Harris (48% to 41%)
NV: Trump (40% to 35%)


Before (10/27/2024)
--
PA: Harris (60% to 30%)
NC: Trump (35% to 33%)
GA: Trump (49% to 45%)
AZ: Trump (42% to 36%)
WI: Harris (35% to 23%)
MI: Harris (52% to 38%)
NV: Trump (41% to 35%)

Please explain what these percentages are measuring - they are meaningless to me otherwise

[ShockerPrez]

I'm curious how many red/swing states have abortion proposals on the ballot this time around. That is the GOPs achillies heel. And sort of a poison pill on ballots that can even up any advantage the GOP has.

[WuDrWu]

Interesting:

CO: Harris (31% to 28%) -- Interesting because Independents make up 41% of the vote there. And while they have went left recently, they did go for Bush in 2004.

There's been a lot of speculation that because of Trump's appeal to "low propensity" voters, that a big turnout, normally reserved as a celebration for the left, actually would benefit the right this time around.

I do NOT prescribe to that notion, at all. Those thoughts are aligned with folks that are convinced that A)the left has a huge advantage with the college educated AND B) Trump voters are stupid.


And that is an extremely narrow and imho skewed analysis of a few statistics.

Voting totals being down (across the board), especially from 2020, I believe, almost has to benefit Trump, bigly. I am FAR more excited (cautiously so) about registered Dems that have voted early being down say 10-20% than I am about Trump closing the voting gap on early voting by 2 or 3 times those numbers. FAR more.


Cannibalization being the most prominent of those concerns. If Rep early voting is up, it could possible eat at every single vote we're expecting to get next Tuesday. However, if Dem early voting is down, the chances they will make up those numbers next Tuesday are much more remote. Actually, they are almost impossible to calculate.